PythiaBasketballBETA
Basketligan· Umea Energi Arena
The Basketligan showdown on 17 November 2026 between Umea and Nassjo is a razor-thin contest, with the model giving Nassjo a 51% edge over Umea's 49% and both sides projected to score 84 points each for a 167.4-point total. Umea, sitting 11th after a 1-8 season, has averaged 77.8 points while conceding 88.0, and their home record is 0-4 with 80.2 points for and 91.8 against; they have lost five of their last five games, most recently 95-100 to Sloga Uppsala. Nassjo, 8th in the standings, has a 3-7 record, 78.2 points scored and 84.3 allowed, and a 1-4 road tally of 75.4 points for and 86.8 against; they have won two of their last five, yet lost to Sodertalje 69-91. The last encounter on 19 October saw Nassjo beat Umea 88-78, and the series stands at 9-1 in Nassjo's favour. With a projected 84-84 finish, the game is poised to go to overtime, which the model rates at 5%. The final score will hinge on whether Umea can reverse its recent slump or Nassjo can sustain its current form.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 77.8 | 88.0 | 165.8 | -10.2 | 11% |
| Season at home (4) | 80.2 | 91.8 | 172.0 | -11.5 | 0% |
| Season away (5) | 75.8 | 85.0 | 160.8 | -9.2 | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.4 | 87.9 | 166.3 | -9.5 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.8 | 85.4 | 168.2 | -2.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (22) | 78.5 | 93.8 | 172.2 | -15.3 | 5% |
| vs Similar (6) | 81.5 | 83.2 | 164.7 | -1.7 | 33% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 91.0 | 83.0 | 174.0 | +8.0 | 50% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (10) | 78.2 | 84.3 | 162.5 | -6.1 | 30% |
| Season at home (5) | 81.0 | 81.8 | 162.8 | -0.8 | 40% |
| Season away (5) | 75.4 | 86.8 | 162.2 | -11.4 | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.2 | 84.3 | 162.5 | -6.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.0 | 84.6 | 163.6 | -5.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 80.1 | 94.6 | 174.7 | -14.6 | 16% |
| vs Similar (5) | 90.6 | 92.6 | 183.2 | -2.0 | 40% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 98.3 | 84.8 | 183.2 | +13.5 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.7 | 45.1 | 85.8 | -4.4 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 42.6 | 44.9 | 87.4 | -2.3 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 39.1 | 45.4 | 84.4 | -6.3 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 41.9 | 44.0 | 85.9 | -2.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.4 | 42.4 | 84.8 | +0.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (22) | 40.1 | 45.9 | 86.0 | -5.7 | 23% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 40.7 | 43.3 | 84.0 | -2.7 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 47.0 | 42.5 | 89.5 | +4.5 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.8 | 47.2 | 90.0 | -4.5 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 45.7 | 45.8 | 91.5 | -0.1 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 39.8 | 48.7 | 88.5 | -8.9 | 20% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.9 | 43.6 | 83.5 | -3.7 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.0 | 41.8 | 82.8 | -0.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 39.7 | 49.4 | 89.1 | -9.6 | 16% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 49.4 | 46.4 | 95.8 | +3.0 | 60% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 46.8 | 41.2 | 88.0 | +5.7 | 67% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 43.6 | 23.1 | 52.7% | 46.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 21.6 | 5.2 | 33.9% | 15.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.4 | 14.5 | 74.1% | 14.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.9 | 20.1 | 52.7% | 40.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.1 | 8.2 | 33.9% | 24.6 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 21.9 | 15.2 | 74.1% | 15.2 |
Umea
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19/10/26 | Nassjo v Umea | 88-78 |
| 03/02/26 | Nassjo v Umea | 120-108 OT |
| 22/11/25 | Nassjo v Umea | 97-79 |
| 01/11/25 | Umea v Nassjo | 104-96 |
| 13/02/25 | Nassjo v Umea | 102-77 |
| 06/12/24 | Nassjo v Umea | 90-87 |
| 16/11/24 | Umea v Nassjo | 76-93 |
| 22/03/24 | Nassjo v Umea | 103-74 |
| 16/01/24 | Umea v Nassjo | 94-98 |
| 10/11/23 | Nassjo v Umea | 117-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Sloga Uppsala | 95-100 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Koping Stars | 77-90 |
| 27/10/26 | H | BC Lulea | 93-96 OT |
| 23/10/26 | A | Uppsala | 71-53 |
| 19/10/26 | A | Nassjo | 78-88 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Boras | 78-86 |
| 09/10/26 | H | Jamtland | 69-93 |
| 29/09/26 | H | Sodertalje | 64-78 |
| 25/09/26 | A | Norrkoping | 75-108 |
| 17/03/26 | H | Uppsala | 84-87 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Sodertalje | 69-91 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Koping Stars | 81-89 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Jamtland | 74-92 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Sloga Uppsala | 83-73 |
| 19/10/26 | H | Umea | 88-78 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Uppsala | 74-80 |
| 13/10/26 | A | BC Lulea | 74-91 |
| 09/10/26 | A | Hogsbo | 81-85 |
| 29/09/26 | H | Norrkoping | 79-89 |
| 25/09/26 | A | Boras | 79-75 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLLL | 11% |
| Home | LLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLLWL | 20% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Win % | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Points / game | 77.8 | 80.2 | 75.8 |
| Allowed / game | 88.0 | 91.8 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | -10.2 | -11.5 | -9.2 |
| Avg total | 165.8 | 172.0 | 160.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 11% | 0% | 20% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (2) | - |
| Overtime % | 11% | 25% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLLL | 30% |
| Home | LLWWL | 40% |
| Away | WLLLL | 20% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Win % | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Points / game | 78.2 | 81.0 | 75.4 |
| Allowed / game | 84.3 | 81.8 | 86.8 |
| Point differential | -6.1 | -0.8 | -11.4 |
| Avg total | 162.5 | 162.8 | 162.2 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 40% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sodertalje | 10 | 9 | 1 | 90% | 88.0 | 74.2 | +13.8 |
| 2 |  BC Lulea | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 97.6 | 82.7 | +14.9 |
| 3 |  Jamtland | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 91.0 | 82.4 | +8.6 |
| 4 |  Norrkoping | 10 | 7 | 3 | 70% | 91.7 | 83.2 | +8.5 |
| 5 |  Boras | 10 | 6 | 4 | 60% | 87.3 | 83.6 | +3.7 |
| 6 |  Koping Stars | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% | 86.5 | 87.8 | -1.3 |
| 7 |  Uppsala | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% | 74.9 | 87.4 | -12.5 |
| 8 | Nassjo | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30% | 78.2 | 84.3 | -6.1 |
| 9 | Hogsbo | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 81.1 | 89.0 | -7.9 |
| 10 | Sloga Uppsala | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20% | 80.7 | 94.0 | -13.3 |
| 11 | Umea | 9 | 1 | 8 | 11% | 77.8 | 88.0 | -10.2 |
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