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UNLV vs Samford Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 83-73
Projected total 155.2
Final 88-79
45-40 43-39
Position#132
Record1-0
FormWLWLW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game77.0
UNLV 🏆
USA
Vs
81%
19%
■ UNLV 81%■ SAMF 19%
Pythia win probability
Samford
USA
Position#208
Record1-0
FormLWWLW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game58.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UNLV hosts Samford on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UNLV the clear favourite, rating them 81% to win largely because of their 1-0 record, 89.0 points per game and 77.0 allowed, placing them 154th in the league, while Samford also stands 1-0 but with 87.0 points per game and only 58.0 allowed, 87th in the league. UNLV's single game has been a 89-77 victory, and their last five games show 3 wins and 2 losses, with a recent 89-77 win over Northern Arizona at home; Samford's lone outing was a 87-58 win over Berry Vikings, and their last five also record 3 wins and 2 losses, including a 87-58 win at home against Berry. The teams have not met before, so there is no head-to-head history to consider. Pythia projects an 83-73 score, giving UNLV an 81% chance to win, Samford 19%, and a projected total of 155.2 points. The home line is -12.0 with a 43% chance of covering, and the total line is 156.5 with a 46% chance of the over, while the game carries a 4% overtime probability. The next concrete fact is that UNLV's last home game was a 89-77 win over Northern Arizona.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UNLV winWon
81.5%fair 1.23
Best odds1.17
Implied83.7%
Edge-2.2pp
Samford winLost
18.5%fair 5.40
Best odds6.00
Implied16.3%
Edge+2.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UNLVUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
W
86-83 OT
86
83
+3
A14/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
86-91
86
91
-5
H19/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
91-66
91
66
+25
A21/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
85-83 OT
85
83
+2
H01/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
92-65
92
65
+27
H04/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
73-70
73
70
+3
H11/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
60-80
60
80
-20
A12/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#347
W
89-77
89
77
+12
H04/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-40
48-37
39-47
47-44
34-31
57-35
24-42
43-38
35-37
39-37
32-24
60-41
39-42
47-47
44-31
29-39
23-37
37-43
43-47
46-30
159.9Avg total
81.5Scored
78.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)89.077.0166.0+12.0100%
Season at home (1)89.077.0166.0+12.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.578.4159.9+3.160%
Last 5 (5)80.076.2156.2+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)73.981.5155.4-7.625%
vs Similar ◀ (10)82.983.7166.6-0.870%
vs Weaker (8)78.265.0143.2+13.275%
This opponent (Samford) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Citadel
#302
W
78-64
78
64
+14
H06/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
69-49
69
49
+20
H07/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
W
97-80
97
80
+17
H12/02
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
82-72 OT
82
72
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Citadel
#302
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
L
86-89
86
89
-3
A21/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
W
80-61
80
61
+19
H27/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
W
87-78
87
78
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H07/03
NCAA
Berry Vikings
#380
W
87-58
87
58
+29
H03/11
NCAA
1H
2H
39-32
39-32
40-22
29-27
47-34
50-46
38-37
30-31
31-34
47-41
41-44
45-45
36-36
44-25
50-41
37-37
46-46
35-40
45-28
42-30
153.7Avg total
82.5Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)87.058.0145.0+29.0100%
Season at home (1)87.058.0145.0+29.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.571.2153.7+11.380%
Last 5 (5)84.274.4158.6+9.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)66.879.8146.6-13.020%
vs Similar ◀ (15)79.578.3157.8+1.147%
vs Weaker (9)83.665.3148.9+18.289%
This opponent (UNLV) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
55.0%
@ 1.40-11.2pp
Under 153
45.0%
@ 2.75+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 158 · main lineActual: Over 158
Over 158
42.6%
@ 1.91-7.4pp
Under 158
57.4%
@ 2.00+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 163Actual: Over 163
Over 163
30.9%
@ 2.30-9.3pp
Under 163
69.1%
@ 1.55+9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.30
Under
Bet365
1.55

📊 3. Team Totals

UNLV total 80Actual: UNLV over 80
Over 80
61.1%
Under 80
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNLV total 84 · main lineActual: UNLV over 84
Over 84
44.6%
@ 1.87-5.1pp
Under 84
55.4%
@ 1.85+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
UNLV total 88Push
Over 88
29.0%
Under 88
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samford total 68Actual: Samford over 68
Over 68
67.3%
Under 68
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samford total 72 · main lineActual: Samford over 72
Over 72
51.5%
@ 1.85+1.5pp
Under 72
48.5%
@ 1.85-1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Samford total 76Actual: Samford over 76
Over 76
35.7%
Under 76
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UNLV -14Actual: Samford +14
UNLV -14
36.0%
@ 2.50-1.5pp
SAMF +14
64.0%
@ 1.50+1.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
2.50
SAMF
Bet365
1.50
Spread UNLV -11 · main lineActual: Samford +11
UNLV -11
46.8%
@ 1.95-3.3pp
SAMF +11
53.2%
@ 1.96+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.76
SAMF
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Spread UNLV -8Actual: UNLV -8
UNLV -8
58.2%
@ 1.57-0.7pp
SAMF +8
41.8%
@ 2.25+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
1.57
SAMF
Bet365
2.25

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.6-3.61st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +6.2+6.22nd half: +4.4+4.4
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: -3.6-3.61st half: +5.9+5.92nd half2nd half: +6.2+6.22nd half: +4.4+4.4
UNLVSamford
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UNLVLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boise State
#101
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A14/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H19/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A21/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A26/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H01/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
W
32-24
32
24
+8
H04/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A07/03
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
W
44-31
44
31
+13
H11/03
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
23-37
23
37
-14
A12/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#347
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H04/11
NCAA
72.0Avg total
34.2Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)36.136.772.8-0.747%43%
Last 30 at home (15)38.635.373.9+3.360%53%
Last 30 away (15)33.538.271.7-4.733%33%
Last 10 (10)34.237.872.0-3.630%40%
Last 5 (5)36.236.272.4+0.040%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)32.838.070.8-5.225%42%
vs Similar ◀ (10)37.439.777.1-2.340%60%
vs Weaker (8)39.431.170.5+8.288%25%
This opponent (Samford) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SamfordLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Citadel
#302
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H06/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
W
40-22
40
22
+18
H07/02
NCAA
Wofford
#126
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H12/02
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A14/02
NCAA
Citadel
#302
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A20/02
NCAA
Mercer
#117
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A21/02
NCAA
VMI
#364
D
36-36
36
36
+0
H27/02
NCAA
NC Greensboro
#252
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H28/02
NCAA
Furman
#93
D
46-46
46
46
+0
H07/03
NCAA
Berry Vikings
#380
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H03/11
NCAA
76.7Avg total
41.3Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 74.5
Last 30 (30)37.236.774.0+0.537%43%
Last 30 at home (15)41.134.275.3+6.947%40%
Last 30 away (15)33.439.372.7-5.927%47%
Last 10 (10)41.335.476.7+5.960%50%
Last 5 (5)43.639.082.6+4.640%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)29.839.269.0-9.420%40%
vs Similar ◀ (15)37.339.376.6-1.927%53%
vs Weaker (9)40.332.172.4+8.256%33%
This opponent (UNLV) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: UNLV win
UNLV win
no forecast
@ 1.31
SAMF win
no forecast
@ 4.25
1st half Spread UNLV -6 · main lineActual: Samford +6
UNLV -6
no forecast
@ 1.91
SAMF +6
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.94
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
UNLV 1st half total 41 · main lineActual: UNLV over 41
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Samford 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: Samford over 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 73Actual: Over 73
Over
no forecast
@ 1.73
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 76Actual: Over 76
Over
no forecast
@ 2.18
Under
no forecast
@ 1.68
1st half Spread UNLV -7Actual: Samford +7
UNLV -7
no forecast
@ 2.10
SAMF +7
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread UNLV -5Push
UNLV -5
no forecast
@ 1.74
SAMF +5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.32
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread UNLV -8.5Actual: Samford +8.5
UNLV -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
SAMF +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread UNLV -3.5Actual: UNLV -3.5
UNLV -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
SAMF +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.67
Under
no forecast
@ 1.40
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UNLV (regulation)
UNLV
no forecast
@ 1.29
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
SAMF
no forecast
@ 4.25

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UNLV win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
SAMF win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UNLV leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: SAMF leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
UNLV under 90.578.3%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+9.3ppWon
Under 16573.3%1.44
Bet365
1.44		----+8.7ppLost
Under 16471.2%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+8.7ppLost
Under 166.575.7%1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36		---+8.3ppLost
Under 16675.2%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+8.3ppLost
UNLV under 88.572.0%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+8.2ppWon
UNLV under 89.575.2%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+8.2ppWon
Under 164.571.8%1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.44		---+8.0ppLost
Under 16777.1%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+7.7ppPush
Under 165.573.8%1.40
Bet365
1.41
Betano
1.38		---+7.6ppLost
Under 167.577.5%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+7.1ppWon
UNLV under 94.588.1%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+6.7ppWon
Samford +19.579.6%1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22		---+4.5ppWon
Overtime: no96.5%1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02		---+4.3pp-
Samford +1979.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+2.9ppWon
Samford +16.571.5%1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33		---+2.6ppWon
Samford over 55.595.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+2.5ppWon
Samford +17.574.4%1.29
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27		---+2.5ppWon
UNLV (regulation)79.4%1.16
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14		--+2.2ppWon
Samford +18.577.1%1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22		---+2.2ppWon
Samford over 56.594.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.4ppWon
Samford +1773.6%1.28
Bet365
1.28		----+1.3ppWon
Samford +1876.5%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+1.2ppWon
Samford +1670.6%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+1.1ppWon
Under 176.590.1%1.05
Bet365
1.05		----+1.1ppWon
Samford over 57.593.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.7ppWon
Over 131.592.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.4ppWon
Samford over 58.591.6%1.02
Bet365
1.02		----+0.4ppWon
Under 171.584.0%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+0.2ppWon
UNLV -375.5%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----0.6ppWon
UNLV -472.6%1.27
Bet365
1.27		-----0.7ppWon
Samford over 59.589.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----0.8ppWon
UNLV -4.570.2%1.30
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.29		----0.9ppWon
Samford over 60.588.1%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----1.0ppWon
UNLV -3.573.5%1.25
Bet365
1.25		-----1.0ppWon
UNLV -2.576.2%1.20
Bet365
1.20		-----1.6ppWon
Samford over 66.571.9%1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.20		----1.9ppWon
Over 136.587.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----2.1ppWon
UNLV win81.5%1.14
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.14		-2.2ppWon
Samford over 61.586.0%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----2.8ppWon
UNLV over 73.582.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.9ppWon
Samford over 62.583.6%1.08
Bet365
1.08		-----3.0ppWon
UNLV over 75.576.5%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----4.0ppWon
Samford over 64.578.2%1.13
Bet365
1.13		-----4.1ppWon
Over 141.579.7%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----4.1ppWon
Samford over 63.581.0%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----5.1ppWon
UNLV over 74.579.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----6.1ppWon
Samford over 65.575.2%1.14
Bet365
1.14		-----6.2ppWon
UNLV over 76.573.3%1.15
Bet365
1.15		-----7.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UNLV wins
0
Samford wins
No previous meetings.
UNLVlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26HNorthern Arizona89-77
12/03/26AUtah State60-80
11/03/26HWyoming73-70
07/03/26ASan Diego State86-89
04/03/26HUtah State92-65
01/03/26HNevada85-83 OT
26/02/26AGrand Canyon67-80
21/02/26AAir Force91-66
19/02/26HColorado State86-91
14/02/26ABoise State86-83 OT
Samfordlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/11/26HBerry Vikings87-58
07/03/26HFurman81-86
28/02/26HNC Greensboro87-78
27/02/26HVMI80-61
21/02/26AMercer86-89
20/02/26ACitadel78-75
14/02/26AEast Tennessee St82-72 OT
12/02/26HWofford97-80
07/02/26HMercer69-49
06/02/26HCitadel78-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UNLV
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game89.089.0-
Allowed / game77.077.0-
Point differential+12.0+12.0-
Avg total166.0166.0-
Over 158100%100%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Samford
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game87.087.0-
Allowed / game58.058.0-
Point differential+29.0+29.0-
Avg total145.0145.0-
Over 1580%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boise State110100%132.053.0+79.0
2 New Mexico110100%100.060.0+40.0
3 Wyoming220100%94.055.0+39.0
4 Nevada110100%86.049.0+37.0
5 Utah State110100%94.058.0+36.0
6 Grand Canyon110100%103.079.0+24.0
7 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
8 San Diego State220100%89.572.0+17.5
9 UNLV110100%89.077.0+12.0
10 Colorado State220100%81.070.5+10.5
11 Fresno State110100%88.079.0+9.0
12 Air Force21150%89.080.0+9.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Furman220100%100.061.0+39.0
2 Samford110100%87.058.0+29.0
3 NC Greensboro21150%80.558.5+22.0
4 Citadel21150%76.067.0+9.0
5 Mercer21150%78.574.5+4.0
6 VMI21150%92.589.0+3.5
7 Western Carolina1010%72.080.0-8.0
8 Chattanooga Mocs2020%81.590.5-9.0
9 East Tennessee St2020%64.076.0-12.0
10 Wofford2020%64.599.5-35.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
UNLV454388
Samford403979
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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