UNLV faces Stanford on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating UNLV as the favourite at 79% because of their 2-0 record, 88.5 points per game and 78.0 allowed, while Stanford sits 3-0, 82.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed; both teams have perfect season records, but UNLV's higher scoring margin and recent home dominance give the edge. UNLV's two games have yielded 88.5 points per game and 78.0 allowed, and they remain undefeated at home with a 2-0 home record; their last five games were 3-2, including victories over Samford 88-79 and Northern Arizona 89-77 at home and a loss to Utah State 60-80 away. Stanford's three games have produced 82.0 points per game and 67.0 allowed, and they are undefeated overall with a 4-1 record in the last five, highlighted by wins over Rice 91-73, Oakland 81-63 and East. Washington 74-65, all at home. In their only prior meeting, UNLV beat Stanford 75-74 on 7 December 2025. Pythia projects a 82-73 score for UNLV, a total of 154.3, a 0.0 spread that UNLV covers with 79% probability, and an over on the 151.5 line with 56% probability, with a 4% chance of overtime. The game will end with UNLV's 82-point performance against Stanford's 73.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UNLV winWon
78.6%fair 1.27
Best odds2.00
Implied49.1%
Edge+29.6pp
Stanford winLost
21.4%fair 4.68
Best odds1.89
Implied50.9%
Edge-29.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UNLV) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
62.5%
@ 1.73+5.9pp
Under 149
37.5%
@ 2.50-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.19
Over/Under 154 · main lineActual: Under 154
Over 154
50.2%
@ 1.95-0.1pp
Under 154
49.8%
@ 1.92+0.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 159Actual: Under 159
Over 159
37.9%
@ 2.62+2.5pp
Under 159
62.1%
@ 1.44-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
UNLV total 71Actual: UNLV over 71
Over 71
86.3%
Under 71
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UNLV total 75 · main lineActual: UNLV over 75
Over 75
75.4%
@ 1.85+25.2pp
Under 75
24.6%
@ 1.87-25.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UNLV total 79Actual: UNLV under 79
Over 79
60.9%
Under 79
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stanford total 72Actual: Stanford under 72
Over 72
52.0%
Under 72
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stanford total 76 · main lineActual: Stanford under 76
Over 76
36.2%
@ 1.86-13.7pp
Under 76
63.8%
@ 1.85+13.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Stanford total 80Actual: Stanford under 80
Over 80
22.7%
Under 80
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UNLV -2Actual: UNLV -2
UNLV -2
75.6%
@ 2.20+32.0pp
STAN +2
24.4%
@ 1.78-32.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.10
SBO
1.93
STAN
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.66
Spread UNLV +1 · main lineActual: UNLV +1
UNLV +1
80.2%
@ 1.92+30.0pp
STAN -1
19.8%
@ 1.93-30.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.81
STAN
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread UNLV +4Actual: UNLV +4
UNLV +4
86.8%
@ 1.54+26.4pp
STAN -4
13.2%
@ 2.35-26.4pp
Best 5 market prices
UNLV
Bet365
1.54
STAN
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UNLVStanford
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
UNLV -2
75.6%
2.08
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.10
SBO
1.93
-
-
+32.0pp
Won
UNLV (regulation)
76.4%
2.00
Marathon Bet
2.01
Betano
2.00
-
-
-
+31.5pp
Won
UNLV -1
78.2%
1.95
Pinnacle
2.04
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.94
SBO
1.88
-
+31.2pp
Won
UNLV -2.5
72.9%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+31.0pp
Won
UNLV -3
72.1%
2.25
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Won
UNLV -1.5
76.5%
2.01
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.88
-
+30.9pp
Won
UNLV -3.5
70.1%
2.35
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+30.6pp
Won
UNLV +1
80.2%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
SBO
1.81
-
+30.0pp
Won
UNLV win
78.6%
1.93
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
1.96
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.92
+29.6pp
Won
UNLV 0
78.6%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Won
UNLV +1.5
80.5%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
+28.7pp
Won
UNLV +2
82.7%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.71
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
UNLV +2.5
83.2%
1.69
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.67
-
+26.9pp
Won
UNLV +3.5
85.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+26.8pp
Won
UNLV +3
84.8%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
UNLV +4
86.8%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Won
UNLV +4.5
87.0%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+25.6pp
Won
UNLV over 75
75.4%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+25.2pp
Won
UNLV +5
88.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Won
UNLV +5.5
88.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
UNLV over 74.5
76.2%
1.74
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.55
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
UNLV +6
90.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
UNLV +6.5
90.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
UNLV over 76
72.1%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Push
UNLV +7
91.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
UNLV +7.5
91.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+21.6pp
Won
UNLV +8
92.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+20.9pp
Won
UNLV +8.5
92.9%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
Stanford under 78.5
71.9%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
UNLV +9
93.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
UNLV +9.5
93.9%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Won
UNLV over 75.5
73.1%
1.79
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
+19.1pp
Won
UNLV over 70.5
86.6%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+17.6pp
Won
UNLV over 73.5
79.2%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
UNLV +10.5
94.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
UNLV over 72.5
81.9%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Stanford under 79.5
75.0%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Stanford under 80.5
77.9%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
UNLV over 71.5
84.4%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
UNLV +15.5
97.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+11.6pp
Won
UNLV +20.5
99.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.1%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Over 143.5
74.2%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 145
71.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Over 144.5
72.2%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Lost
Over 144
73.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Push
Over 126.5
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Over 141.5
78.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Over 145.5
70.1%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Lost
Over 136.5
86.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
Stanford over 58.5
91.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Under 176.5
91.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Stanford over 57.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Stanford over 59.5
90.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Stanford +24.5
91.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Stanford over 60.5
88.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Under 171.5
85.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Stanford over 61.5
86.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Stanford over 62.5
83.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
77.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Stanford over 63.5
81.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Stanford +19.5
82.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Stanford over 64.5
78.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
Stanford over 65.5
75.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Stanford over 66.5
72.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.