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Utah State vs Idaho State Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 94-58
37-29 57-29
Position#70
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Utah State 🏆
USA
Vs
90%
■ UTAH 90%■ IDAH 10%
Pythia win probability
Projected 83-68
Projected total 151.6
Idaho State
USA
Position#370
Record-
FormWLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Utah State faces Idaho State in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the model naming Utah State the clear favourite because it is projected to win 90% of the game and to outscore Idaho State 83-68, a margin that reflects Utah State's dominant 90% win probability. Utah State has won 4 of its last 5 games, including a 73-62 home victory over San Diego State on 14 March 2026, while Idaho State has won only 2 of its last 5, with a recent 73-65 home win over Northern Arizona on 7 March 2026. The teams have met once before, though the record of that meeting is not listed. Pythia projects a total of 151.6 points, with a 50% chance the combined score will exceed the 151.5-point line, and a 2% probability of overtime. The home team's line is 83-68, and the model gives Utah State a 90% chance to cover that spread. The game will likely see Utah State maintain its strong finish while Idaho State struggles to keep pace.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Utah State winWon
89.8%fair 1.11
Best odds1.01
Implied94.2%
Edge-4.4pp
Idaho State winLost
10.2%fair 9.82
Best odds34.00
Implied5.8%
Edge+4.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Utah StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nevada
#86
L
77-80
77
80
-3
A22/02
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
72-89
72
89
-17
A26/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
74-69
74
69
+5
H01/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
65-92
65
92
-27
A04/03
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
94-90
94
90
+4
H07/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
80-60
80
60
+20
H12/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H14/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
73-62
73
62
+11
H14/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
W
86-76
86
76
+10
A20/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
66-78
66
78
-12
A23/03
NCAA
1H
2H
40-38
37-42
33-46
39-43
41-27
33-42
24-32
41-60
42-43
52-47
37-23
43-37
39-32
40-34
34-35
39-27
37-39
49-37
24-33
42-45
152.8Avg total
76.6Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.676.2152.8+0.460%
Last 5 (5)76.868.4145.2+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)66.078.0144.0-12.00%
vs Similar (3)80.376.7157.0+3.767%
vs Weaker (26)81.371.1152.3+10.281%
Idaho StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Arizona
#335
L
73-79
73
79
-6
H06/02
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#97
L
61-69
61
69
-8
H07/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
75-88
75
88
-13
A13/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
69-99
69
99
-30
A14/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H20/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
W
91-76
91
76
+15
H21/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
L
73-83
73
83
-10
H28/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
L
65-83
65
83
-18
A03/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
W
73-65
73
65
+8
H08/03
NCAA
Portland State
#87
L
78-85
78
85
-7
A08/03
NCAA
1H
2H
34-40
39-39
34-36
27-33
38-45
37-43
30-60
39-39
39-37
34-32
50-30
41-46
32-38
41-45
29-46
36-37
45-30
28-35
36-36
42-49
152.7Avg total
73.1Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)73.179.6152.7-6.530%
Last 5 (5)76.078.4154.4-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)72.779.8152.4-7.117%
vs Similar (9)78.376.8155.1+1.656%
vs Weaker (2)78.555.0133.5+23.5100%
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
62.0%
@ 1.63-1.4pp
Under 146.5
38.0%
@ 2.60+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.63
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
49.8%
@ 1.90-0.4pp
Under 151.5
50.2%
@ 1.92+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.92
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
37.7%
@ 2.60+1.1pp
Under 156.5
62.3%
@ 1.47-1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45

📊 3. Team Totals

Utah State total 84Actual: Utah State over 84
Over 84
46.2%
Under 84
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Utah State total 88 · main lineActual: Utah State over 88
Over 88
30.3%
@ 1.87-19.4pp
Under 88
69.7%
@ 1.85+19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Utah State total 92Actual: Utah State over 92
Over 92
17.5%
Under 92
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Idaho State total 57Actual: Idaho State over 57
Over 57
87.9%
Under 57
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Idaho State total 61 · main lineActual: Idaho State under 61
Over 61
77.7%
@ 1.85+27.5pp
Under 61
22.3%
@ 1.86-27.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Idaho State total 65Actual: Idaho State under 65
Over 65
63.6%
Under 65
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Utah State -30Actual: Utah State -30
UTAH -30
no forecast
@ 2.35
IDAH +30
no forecast
@ 1.54
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Bet365
2.35
IDAH
Bet365
1.54
Spread Utah State -27 · main lineActual: Utah State -27
UTAH -27
no forecast
@ 1.95
IDAH +27
no forecast
@ 1.89
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.84
IDAH
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.80
Spread Utah State -24Actual: Utah State -24
UTAH -24
19.6%
@ 1.61-39.3pp
IDAH +24
80.4%
@ 2.30+39.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UTAH
Pinnacle
1.61
Bet365
1.60
IDAH
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.20

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.3+0.31st half: -3.1-3.12nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: -3.4-3.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.3+0.31st half: -3.1-3.12nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: -3.4-3.4
Utah StateIdaho State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Utah StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Nevada
#86
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A22/02
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H01/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
24-32
24
32
-8
A04/03
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H07/03
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
37-23
37
23
+14
H12/03
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H14/03
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
L
34-35
34
35
-1
H14/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
37-39
37
39
-2
A20/03
NCAA
Arizona
#7
L
24-33
24
33
-9
A23/03
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.1Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)37.433.470.8+4.060%47%
Last 30 at home (16)39.932.372.2+7.669%44%
Last 30 away (14)34.634.669.1+0.050%50%
Last 10 (10)35.134.869.9+0.340%40%
Last 5 (5)34.232.466.6+1.840%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)24.033.057.0-9.00%0%
vs Similar (3)32.739.071.7-6.333%33%
vs Weaker (26)38.532.771.2+5.765%50%
Idaho StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northern Arizona
#335
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H06/02
NCAA
Northern Colorado
#97
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H07/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A13/02
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
30-60
30
60
-30
A14/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H20/02
NCAA
Montana State
#144
W
50-30
50
30
+20
H21/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H28/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A03/03
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Portland State
#87
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A08/03
NCAA
76.5Avg total
36.7Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 72.5
Last 30 (30)34.937.172.0-2.240%50%
Last 30 at home (16)37.635.072.6+2.662%56%
Last 30 away (14)31.839.571.3-7.714%43%
Last 10 (10)36.739.876.5-3.130%70%
Last 5 (5)38.436.074.4+2.440%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)33.938.272.1-4.328%39%
vs Similar (9)36.736.873.4-0.156%78%
vs Weaker (2)32.530.563.0+2.050%0%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Utah State win
UTAH win
no forecast
@ 1.05
IDAH win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread Utah State -14.5 · main lineActual: Idaho State +14.5
UTAH -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
IDAH +14.5
no forecast
@ 1.94
1st half Over/Under 72.5 · main lineActual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Utah State 1st half total 42.5 · main lineActual: Utah State under 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Idaho State 1st half total 28.5 · main lineActual: Idaho State over 28.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half: UTAH + total 72.5
UTAH & over
no forecast
@ 2.00
UTAH & under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: Draw + total 72.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: IDAH + total 72.5
IDAH & over
no forecast
@ 26.00
IDAH & under
no forecast
@ 23.00
1st half Over/Under 71Actual: Under 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.14
1st half Over/Under 74Actual: Under 74
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.71
1st half Spread Utah State -15.5Actual: Idaho State +15.5
UTAH -15.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
IDAH +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Utah State -13.5Actual: Idaho State +13.5
UTAH -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
IDAH +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.13
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.67
Under
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Utah State -16.5Actual: Idaho State +16.5
UTAH -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
IDAH +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Utah State (regulation)
UTAH
no forecast
@ 1.06
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
IDAH
no forecast
@ 13.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
UTAH win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
IDAH win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: UTAH leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Idaho State +2582.8%2.15
Pinnacle
2.26
Bet365
2.05		---+40.7ppLost
Idaho State +2275.2%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+39.4ppLost
Idaho State +2172.3%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+39.3ppLost
Idaho State +2480.4%2.25
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.20		---+39.3ppLost
Idaho State +2377.9%2.35
Bet365
2.35		----+38.3ppLost
Idaho State +24.580.9%2.14
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10		--+37.9ppLost
Idaho State +22.575.9%2.44
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.37		---+37.8ppLost
Idaho State +21.573.1%2.60
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.55		---+37.5ppLost
Idaho State +23.578.5%2.24
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22		---+37.2ppLost
Idaho State +20.570.1%2.80
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.75		---+37.1ppLost
Idaho State over 6177.7%1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84		---+27.5ppLost
Idaho State over 60.578.4%1.72
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.60		--+24.9ppLost
Utah State under 91.580.2%1.58
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.53		--+24.3ppLost
Utah State under 90.577.3%1.61
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50		-+24.0ppLost
Utah State under 89.574.2%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80		+23.8ppLost
Utah State under 8973.3%1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85		---+23.7ppLost
Idaho State over 6274.5%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82		----+23.7ppLost
Utah State under 88.570.8%1.92
Pinnacle
1.98
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87		-+23.5ppLost
Idaho State over 62.572.0%1.87
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		+22.8ppLost
Idaho State over 61.575.3%1.80
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.75		+22.8ppLost
Idaho State over 58.583.8%1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42		---+20.5ppLost
Idaho State over 59.581.2%1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50		---+19.7ppLost
Idaho State over 57.586.1%1.36
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.30		--+18.7ppWon
Idaho State over 56.588.2%1.31
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29		---+18.4ppWon
Idaho State over 55.590.0%1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.20		---+15.4ppWon
Over 14272.5%1.37
Bet365
1.37		----+4.9ppWon
Over 14370.3%1.41
Bet365
1.41		----+4.6ppWon
Over 14174.6%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+4.1ppWon
Over 142.571.0%1.38
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.36		---+3.9ppWon
Over 140.575.1%1.30
Bet365
1.30		----+3.6ppWon
Over 123.595.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+3.1ppWon
Over 138.578.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+2.7ppWon
Over 128.592.3%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+2.6ppWon
Over 141.573.1%1.29
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.22		---+1.3ppWon
Over 133.586.7%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+1.2ppWon
Over 126.593.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+1.1ppWon
Under 176.593.6%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.8ppWon
Utah State over 68.592.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		----+0.1ppWon
Over 131.589.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----0.5ppWon
Under 171.589.0%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----0.7ppWon
Utah State (regulation)88.4%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----1.7ppWon
Under 173.591.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.7ppWon
Utah State over 69.591.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.3ppWon
Utah State over 70.589.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----2.5ppWon
Under 166.582.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----2.8ppWon
Under 161.573.2%1.22
Bet365
1.22		-----3.0ppWon
Over 136.582.2%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----3.3ppWon
Utah State win89.8%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----4.4ppWon
Under 168.585.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----4.5ppWon
Utah State over 72.585.7%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----5.0ppWon
Utah State over 74.580.7%1.05
Bet365
1.05		-----8.3ppWon
Under 163.577.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----8.5ppWon
Idaho State under 77.581.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----12.2ppWon
Utah State over 76.574.8%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----12.4ppWon
Idaho State under 75.575.9%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----15.6ppWon
Utah State -6.576.7%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----16.0ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Utah State wins
0
Idaho State wins
No previous meetings.
Utah Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/03/26AArizona66-78
20/03/26AVillanova86-76
14/03/26HSan Diego State73-62
14/03/26HNevada79-66
12/03/26HUNLV80-60
07/03/26HNew Mexico94-90
04/03/26AUNLV65-92
01/03/26HGrand Canyon74-69
26/02/26ASan Diego State72-89
22/02/26ANevada77-80
Idaho Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26APortland State78-85
08/03/26HNorthern Arizona73-65
03/03/26ASacramento State65-83
28/02/26HWeber State73-83
21/02/26HMontana State91-76
20/02/26HMontana73-69
14/02/26AIdaho69-99
13/02/26AEast. Washington75-88
07/02/26HNorthern Colorado61-69
06/02/26HNorthern Arizona73-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Utah State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 151.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Idaho State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 151.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 New Mexico110100%100.060.0+40.0
2 Grand Canyon110100%103.079.0+24.0
3 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
4 Fresno State110100%88.079.0+9.0
5 Air Force1010%71.0102.0-31.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big Sky conference: no games played yet this season.

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Utah State375794
Idaho State292958
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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