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Virginia vs Dayton Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 86-73
37-33 49-40
Position#19
Record7-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game83.9
Allowed / game72.0
vs
Position#65
Record7-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game70.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Virginia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dayton winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VirginiaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#196
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A12/03
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
87-53
87
53
+34
H04/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
81-62
81
62
+19
H08/11
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
91-53
91
53
+38
H12/11
NCAA
VMI
#364
L
54-106
54
106
-52
A12/11
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
104-78
104
78
+26
H15/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
83-78
83
78
+5
H21/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
73-80
73
80
-7
H23/11
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
94-69
94
69
+25
H28/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
88-69
88
69
+19
A04/12
NCAA
1H
2H
25-25
35-41
42-32
45-21
42-25
39-37
47-19
44-34
35-40
19-66
61-33
43-45
40-36
43-42
42-44
31-36
46-29
48-40
46-27
42-42
152.9Avg total
81.5Scored
71.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)83.972.0155.9+11.978%
Season at home (7)87.667.6155.1+20.086%
Season away (2)71.087.5158.5-16.550%
Last 10 (10)81.571.4152.9+10.170%
Last 5 (5)88.474.8163.2+13.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)64.073.0137.0-9.022%
vs Similar (12)68.967.7136.6+1.258%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)83.272.2155.4+11.078%
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DaytonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chattanooga Mocs
#1
L
72-87
72
87
-15
A22/03
NIT
Canisius
#327
W
88-48
88
48
+40
H04/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
W
77-71
77
71
+6
H08/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
62-74
62
74
-12
A12/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
91-82
91
82
+9
H16/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
77-71 OT
77
71
+6
A20/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
74-55
74
55
+19
H22/11
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
84-79 OT
84
79
+5
H28/11
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
L
79-83
79
83
-4
H29/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
88-71
88
71
+17
H03/12
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
34-42
0-0
38-45
0-0
51-27
0-0
37-21
0-0
41-37
0-0
36-34
0-0
26-33
0-0
36-41
0-0
45-39
0-0
46-43
0-0
39-34
0-0
29-34
0-0
44-20
0-0
30-35
0-0
40-31
0-0
29-38
0-0
36-30
0-0
43-53
0-0
46-38
0-0
42-33
151.3Avg total
79.2Scored
72.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)80.070.4150.4+9.678%
Season at home (7)83.069.9152.9+13.186%
Season away (2)69.572.5142.0-3.050%
Last 10 (10)79.272.1151.3+7.170%
Last 5 (5)80.471.8152.2+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)74.076.8150.8-2.850%
vs Similar (17)73.373.0146.3+0.359%
vs Weaker (8)81.667.8149.4+13.988%
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.6+11.61st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: -1.5-1.52nd half: -1.1-1.1
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.6+11.61st half: +7.1+7.12nd half2nd half: -1.5-1.52nd half: -1.1-1.1
VirginiaDayton
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
VirginiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#196
D
25-25
25
25
+0
A12/03
NCAA
Rider
#367
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H04/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
42-25
42
25
+17
H08/11
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H12/11
NCAA
VMI
#364
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/11
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
61-33
61
33
+28
H15/11
NCAA
Northwestern
#251
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H21/11
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H23/11
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H28/11
NCAA
Texas
#135
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A04/12
NCAA
73.6Avg total
42.6Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.832.968.7+2.950%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.732.168.8+4.656%-
Last 30 away (12)34.534.168.6+0.442%-
Last 10 (10)42.631.073.6+11.670%-
Last 5 (5)47.033.880.8+13.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)31.434.065.4-2.633%-
vs Similar (12)33.132.865.9+0.242%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)43.931.975.8+12.078%-
This opponent (Dayton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DaytonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chattanooga Mocs
#1
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A22/03
NIT
Canisius
#327
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H04/11
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H08/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
26-33
26
33
-7
A12/11
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H16/11
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A20/11
NCAA
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
44-20
44
20
+24
H22/11
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H28/11
NCAA
Brigham Young
#76
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H29/11
NCAA
East Tennessee St
#61
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H03/12
NCAA
73.3Avg total
40.2Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.733.068.8+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.331.968.3+4.467%-
Last 30 away (12)34.834.769.5+0.250%-
Last 10 (10)40.233.173.3+7.180%-
Last 5 (5)41.030.671.6+10.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)32.834.267.0-1.550%-
vs Similar (17)33.633.266.8+0.453%-
vs Weaker (8)40.831.472.1+9.475%-
This opponent (Virginia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Virginia wins
0
Dayton wins
No previous meetings.
Virginialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/12/25ATexas88-69
28/11/25HQueens Royals94-69
23/11/25HButler73-80
21/11/25HNorthwestern83-78
15/11/25HMarshall104-78
12/11/25AVMI54-106
12/11/25HHampton91-53
08/11/25HN. Carolina Central81-62
04/11/25HRider87-53
12/03/25AGeorgia Tech60-66
Daytonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/12/25HEast Tennessee St88-71
29/11/25HBrigham Young79-83
28/11/25HGeorgetown84-79 OT
22/11/25HN. Carolina Central74-55
20/11/25AMarquette77-71 OT
16/11/25HBethune-Cookman91-82
12/11/25ACincinnati62-74
08/11/25HUMBC Retrievers77-71
04/11/25HCanisius88-48
22/03/25AChattanooga Mocs72-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Virginia
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW78%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games972
Win %78%86%50%
Points / game83.987.671.0
Allowed / game72.067.687.5
Point differential+11.9+20.0-16.5
Avg total155.9155.1158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%71%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dayton
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW78%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games972
Win %78%86%50%
Points / game80.083.069.5
Allowed / game70.469.972.5
Point differential+9.6+13.1-3.0
Avg total150.4152.9142.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%43%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %22%14%50%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke990100%89.159.6+29.6
2 SMU Mustangs98189%89.475.6+13.9
3 Louisville87188%94.666.2+28.4
4 North Carolina87188%81.265.5+15.8
5 California87188%83.869.9+13.9
6 Stanford87188%82.971.9+11.0
7 Miami (FL)97278%85.365.4+19.9
8 Clemson97278%85.166.7+18.4
9 Virginia97278%83.972.0+11.9
10 Virginia Tech97278%83.074.9+8.1
11 Notre Dame107370%76.669.4+7.2
12 Wake Forest96367%85.273.4+11.8
13 NC State85362%91.077.4+13.6
14 Syracuse85362%73.264.6+8.6
15 Florida State85362%86.478.0+8.4
16 Pittsburgh95456%71.768.1+3.6
17 Georgia Tech95456%71.769.4+2.2
18 Boston College94544%70.367.0+3.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic 10 conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 George Mason990100%82.164.4+17.7
2 St. Bonaventure98189%75.865.7+10.1
3 St. Louis Billikens87188%89.670.1+19.5
4 Richmond Spiders87188%84.668.8+15.9
5 Davidson87188%77.969.2+8.6
6 George Washington97278%90.674.6+16.0
7 Rhode Island97278%77.266.3+10.9
8 Dayton97278%80.070.4+9.6
9 VCU Rams96367%84.370.9+13.4
10 Fordham96367%76.763.7+13.0
11 Duquesne85362%87.180.6+6.5
12 Saint Josephs Hawks74357%77.076.6+0.4
13 La Salle93633%67.967.8+0.1
14 Loyola Chicago92722%67.075.9-8.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Virginia374986
Dayton334073
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