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Xavier vs Cleveland State Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 18 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 96-70
Projected total 166.1
Scheduled
Position#10
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game53.3
Xavier
USA
Vs
98%
■ XAVI 98%■ CLEV 2%
Pythia win probability
Cleveland State
USA
Position#312
Record1-2
FormWLLWL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game95.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Xavier v Cleveland State
17 Nov 2026
XAVI v CLEV
upcoming
15 Mar 2022
XAVI72
CLEV68
Sections
Game preview & prediction

The NCAA showdown on 17 November 2026 pits Xavier against Cleveland State, with Xavier the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 98% to win, reflecting their perfect 3-0 season record, 91.0 points scored per game and only 53.3 allowed. Xavier's three-game season shows a 3-0 record, 91.0 points per game, 53.3 allowed, and a league position of 10, while their home record is also 3-0 with the same averages; their last five games include four wins and one loss, and recent home victories over Detroit 100-55, Eastern Michigan 76-53 and Mount St. Mary's 97-52. Cleveland State has struggled, posting a 1-2 record, 77.3 points per game and 95.0 allowed, with a 0-2 road record, 64.5 points per game and 103.0 allowed; their last five games contain two wins and three losses, and recent results include a loss to Bowling Green 79-95, a home win over Michigan Dearborn 103-79 and a loss to Missouri 50-111. Historically, Xavier has won the only prior meeting, 72-68 on 15 March 2022. Pythia projects a 96-70 score, 166.1 total points, a 98% chance of a Xavier win, a 2% chance for Cleveland State, and a 0% overtime probability. The home team line is 96-70, with a 98% probability that Xavier covers. The game ends with Xavier's dominant 96-70 victory.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Xavier win
98.5%fair 1.02
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Cleveland State win
1.5%fair 65.87
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

XavierUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Butler
#208
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
84-94
84
94
-10
A26/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
68-77
68
77
-9
H04/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
89-87
89
87
+2
A11/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
68-93
68
93
-25
A12/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#238
W
97-52
97
52
+45
H03/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#151
W
76-53
76
53
+23
H07/11
NCAA
Detroit
#483
W
100-55
100
55
+45
H11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
28-47
47-33
34-47
50-47
38-39
53-45
32-33
36-44
32-44
46-47
38-38
51-49
30-50
38-43
51-16
46-36
34-25
42-28
43-20
57-35
159.2Avg total
82.6Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)91.053.3144.3+37.7100%
Season at home (3)91.053.3144.3+37.7100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.676.6159.2+6.050%
Last 5 (5)86.068.0154.0+18.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)76.682.9159.4-6.329%
vs Similar (12)81.081.8162.8-0.858%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)92.258.5150.8+33.8100%
This opponent (Cleveland State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Cleveland StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wright State
#94
L
90-102
90
102
-12
H15/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
L
82-106
82
106
-24
A18/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
70-81
70
81
-11
H26/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
64-83
64
83
-19
A28/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
101-93
101
93
+8
H03/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
61-90
61
90
-29
A05/03
NCAA
Missouri
#120
L
50-111
50
111
-61
A04/11
NCAA
Michigan Dearborn Wolves
#381
W
103-79
103
79
+24
H07/11
NCAA
Bowling Green
#94
L
79-95
79
95
-16
A10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
36-51
54-51
38-52
44-54
40-43
46-49
24-42
46-39
39-39
25-44
45-36
56-57
32-37
29-53
18-56
32-55
47-40
56-39
37-44
42-51
171.8Avg total
78.6Scored
93.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)77.395.0172.3-17.733%
Season at home (1)103.079.0182.0+24.0100%
Season away (2)64.5103.0167.5-38.50%
Last 10 (10)78.693.2171.8-14.620%
Last 5 (5)78.893.6172.4-14.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)74.689.0163.6-14.518%
vs Similar (5)87.086.0173.0+1.060%
vs Weaker (1)96.052.0148.0+44.0100%
This opponent (Xavier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5
Over 148.5
86.3%
Under 148.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 153.5
Over 153.5
78.3%
Under 153.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158.5
Over 158.5
68.0%
Under 158.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Xavier total 83.5
Over 83.5
90.1%
Under 83.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Xavier total 87.5
Over 87.5
81.2%
Under 87.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Xavier total 91.5
Over 91.5
68.5%
Under 91.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State total 62
Over 62
79.1%
Under 62
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State total 66
Over 66
65.3%
Under 66
34.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State total 70
Over 70
48.9%
Under 70
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Xavier -3
XAVI -3
97.8%
CLEV +3
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
No market prices yet.
CLEV
No market prices yet.
Spread Xavier 0
XAVI 0
98.5%
CLEV 0
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
No market prices yet.
CLEV
No market prices yet.
Spread Xavier +3
XAVI +3
99.1%
CLEV -3
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
No market prices yet.
CLEV
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: -8.4-8.42nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: -6.2-6.2
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +0.1+0.11st half: -8.4-8.42nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: -6.2-6.2
XavierCleveland State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
XavierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Butler
#208
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A21/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H04/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A07/03
NCAA
Marquette
#290
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A12/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#238
W
51-16
51
16
+35
H03/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#151
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H07/11
NCAA
Detroit
#483
W
43-20
43
20
+23
H11/11
NCAA
71.9Avg total
36.0Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.837.173.9-0.340%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.833.672.4+5.261%-
Last 30 away (12)33.842.276.0-8.58%-
Last 10 (10)36.035.971.9+0.130%-
Last 5 (5)39.229.869.0+9.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)36.139.575.6-3.436%-
vs Similar (12)35.538.874.2-3.225%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)43.023.566.5+19.5100%-
This opponent (Cleveland State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Cleveland StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wright State
#94
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H15/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
L
38-52
38
52
-14
A18/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
24-42
24
42
-18
H26/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A28/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H03/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A05/03
NCAA
Missouri
#120
L
18-56
18
56
-38
A04/11
NCAA
Michigan Dearborn Wolves
#381
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H07/11
NCAA
Bowling Green
#94
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A10/11
NCAA
79.6Avg total
35.6Scored
44.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.939.575.4-3.637%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.437.175.5+1.250%-
Last 30 away (16)33.841.675.4-7.925%-
Last 10 (10)35.644.079.6-8.420%-
Last 5 (5)35.842.678.4-6.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)33.541.574.9-8.018%-
vs Similar (5)39.237.476.6+1.880%-
vs Weaker (1)45.022.067.0+23.0100%-
This opponent (Xavier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Xavier wins
0
Cleveland State wins
DateGameScore
16/03/22Xavier v Cleveland State72-68
Xavierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HDetroit100-55
07/11/26HEastern Michigan76-53
03/11/26HMount St. Mary's97-52
12/03/26AUconn68-93
11/03/26AMarquette89-87
07/03/26AVillanova78-91
04/03/26HSeton Hall68-77
28/02/26HGeorgetown91-84
26/02/26AProvidence84-94
21/02/26AButler75-80
Cleveland Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26ABowling Green79-95
07/11/26HMichigan Dearborn Wolves103-79
04/11/26AMissouri50-111
05/03/26AWright State61-90
03/03/26HIU Indy101-93
28/02/26ARobert Morris64-83
26/02/26HNorthern Kentucky70-81
22/02/26HIPFW86-92
18/02/26AYoungstown State82-106
15/02/26HWright State90-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Xavier
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games33-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game91.091.0-
Allowed / game53.353.3-
Point differential+37.7+37.7-
Avg total144.3144.3-
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Cleveland State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWL33%
HomeW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%100%0%
Points / game77.3103.064.5
Allowed / game95.079.0103.0
Point differential-17.7+24.0-38.5
Avg total172.3182.0167.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Xavier330100%91.053.3+37.7
2 Uconn330100%84.754.7+30.0
3 St. John's (N.Y.)330100%90.762.3+28.3
4 DePaul330100%80.361.7+18.7
5 Georgetown330100%83.070.0+13.0
6 Seton Hall330100%67.054.7+12.3
7 Marquette32167%80.353.0+27.3
8 Butler32167%92.075.0+17.0
9 Villanova32167%82.366.3+16.0
10 Providence32167%73.059.3+13.7
11 Creighton32167%80.368.3+12.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Horizon League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wright State330100%91.770.0+21.7
2 IPFW21150%87.071.5+15.5
3 Wisc. Green Bay42250%77.572.0+5.5
4 Wisc. Milwaukee42250%79.077.8+1.2
5 Northern Kentucky42250%79.099.8-20.8
6 Youngstown State31233%74.083.7-9.7
7 Cleveland State31233%77.395.0-17.7
8 Oakland5050%69.095.0-26.0
9 Robert Morris3030%52.780.3-27.7
10 Detroit2020%43.596.5-53.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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