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Xavier vs Detroit Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 86-68
Projected total 154.3
Final 100-55
43-20 57-35
Position#10
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game52.5
Xavier 🏆
USA
Vs
94%
■ XAVI 94%■ DETR 6%
Pythia win probability
Detroit
USA
Position#482
Record0-1
FormWWWLL
Points / game32.0
Allowed / game93.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Xavier faces Detroit on 10 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model rating Xavier as the clear favourite because their season record of 2-0 and an average of 86.5 points scored per game versus 52.5 allowed shows a dominant performance. Xavier has won both of its games, scoring 86.5 points per game and allowing only 52.5, and remains undefeated with a 2-0 record in all games and at home, while Detroit has a 0-1 record, averaging 32.0 points and conceding 93.0. Xavier's last five games include three wins and two losses, with recent victories over Eastern Michigan 76-53 and Mount St. Mary's 97-52, whereas Detroit's last five also contain three wins and two losses, but its recent outings include a loss to Marquette 32-93, a loss to Wright State 63-66, and a win over Robert Morris 70-64. The head-to-head history shows no prior meetings. Pythia assigns a 94% probability to a Xavier win and 6% to a Detroit win, projecting a score of 86-68 and a total of 154.3 points. The home team line is 158.5 with a 39% chance of the over, and there is a 1% probability of overtime. Xavier's recent 97-52 win over Mount St.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Xavier winWon
93.9%fair 1.06
Best odds1.01
Implied94.4%
Edge-0.5pp
Detroit winLost
6.1%fair 16.44
Best odds100.00
Implied5.6%
Edge+0.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 07:05 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

XavierUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Villanova
#46
L
89-92 OT
89
92
-3
H17/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
84-94
84
94
-10
A26/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
W
91-84
91
84
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
68-77
68
77
-9
H04/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A07/03
NCAA
Marquette
#290
W
89-87
89
87
+2
A11/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
68-93
68
93
-25
A12/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#239
W
97-52
97
52
+45
H03/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#151
W
76-53
76
53
+23
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
42-43
39-38
28-47
47-33
34-47
50-47
38-39
53-45
32-33
36-44
32-44
46-47
38-38
51-49
30-50
38-43
51-16
46-36
34-25
42-28
161.8Avg total
81.5Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)86.552.5139.0+34.0100%
Season at home (2)86.552.5139.0+34.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)81.580.3161.8+1.240%
Last 5 (5)81.675.2156.8+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)76.682.5159.1-5.927%
vs Similar (12)81.081.8162.8-0.858%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)89.759.7149.3+30.0100%
This opponent (Detroit) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DetroitUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wright State
#94
W
77-74
77
74
+3
A13/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
W
76-70
76
70
+6
H15/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
91-86
91
86
+5
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H22/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
62-73
62
73
-11
A26/02
NCAA
Oakland
#212
W
95-89
95
89
+6
A28/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
84-63
84
63
+21
H05/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A10/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
63-66
63
66
-3
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#123
L
32-93
32
93
-61
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-34
37-40
37-29
39-41
42-48
49-38
31-28
43-42
28-26
34-47
49-42
46-47
38-24
46-39
33-36
37-28
29-26
34-40
19-41
13-52
147.2Avg total
72.4Scored
74.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)32.093.0125.0-61.00%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)32.093.0125.0-61.00%
Last 10 (10)72.474.8147.2-2.470%
Last 5 (5)68.875.0143.8-6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)70.278.8148.9-8.638%
vs Similar (11)78.279.4157.5-1.245%
vs Weaker (6)83.070.7153.7+12.3100%
This opponent (Xavier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
51.6%
@ 1.50-9.9pp
Under 153.5
48.4%
@ 2.40+9.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
39.4%
@ 1.93-10.6pp
Under 158.5
60.6%
@ 1.89+10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.89
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
28.2%
@ 2.50-8.8pp
Under 163.5
71.8%
@ 1.47+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Xavier total 90.5Actual: Xavier over 90.5
Over 90.5
32.9%
@ 1.39-32.0pp
Under 90.5
67.1%
@ 2.57+32.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.57
Xavier total 94.5 · main lineActual: Xavier over 94.5
Over 94.5
19.9%
@ 1.85-31.6pp
Under 94.5
80.1%
@ 1.93+31.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Xavier total 98.5Actual: Xavier over 98.5
Over 98.5
10.6%
@ 2.30-28.9pp
Under 98.5
89.4%
@ 1.50+28.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.50
Detroit total 58.5Actual: Detroit under 58.5
Over 58.5
83.0%
@ 1.38+17.5pp
Under 58.5
17.0%
@ 2.62-17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.62
Detroit total 62.5 · main lineActual: Detroit under 62.5
Over 62.5
71.0%
@ 1.85+19.8pp
Under 62.5
29.0%
@ 1.93-19.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Detroit total 66.5Actual: Detroit under 66.5
Over 66.5
56.0%
@ 2.40+18.3pp
Under 66.5
44.0%
@ 1.45-18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.45

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Xavier -34.5Actual: Xavier -34.5
XAVI -34.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
DETR +34.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Betano
2.10
DETR
Betano
1.65
Spread Xavier -31.5 · main lineActual: Xavier -31.5
XAVI -31.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
DETR +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.77
DETR
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Xavier -28.5Actual: Xavier -28.5
XAVI -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
DETR +28.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
Best 5 market prices
XAVI
Betano
1.57
DETR
Betano
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: +1.2+1.22nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: -3.6-3.6
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: +1.2+1.22nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: -3.6-3.6
XavierDetroit
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
XavierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Villanova
#46
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H17/02
NCAA
Butler
#208
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A21/02
NCAA
Providence
#246
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A26/02
NCAA
Georgetown
#225
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Seton Hall
#89
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H04/03
NCAA
Villanova
#46
L
32-44
32
44
-12
A07/03
NCAA
Marquette
#290
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A11/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A12/03
NCAA
Mount St. Mary's
#239
W
51-16
51
16
+35
H03/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#151
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H07/11
NCAA
74.1Avg total
35.9Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)36.738.274.9-1.437%43%
Last 30 at home (18)38.735.474.2+3.356%44%
Last 30 away (12)33.842.276.0-8.58%42%
Last 10 (10)35.938.274.1-2.320%40%
Last 5 (5)37.034.671.6+2.440%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)36.540.476.9-3.933%40%
vs Similar (12)35.538.874.2-3.225%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)43.024.767.7+18.3100%33%
This opponent (Detroit) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DetroitLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wright State
#94
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A13/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H15/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H21/02
NCAA
Wisc. Green Bay
#171
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A26/02
NCAA
Oakland
#212
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A28/02
NCAA
Wisc. Milwaukee
#294
W
38-24
38
24
+14
H05/03
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A10/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#123
L
19-41
19
41
-22
A07/11
NCAA
68.0Avg total
34.6Scored
33.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)35.834.670.4+1.263%27%
Last 30 at home (13)39.233.772.9+5.577%38%
Last 30 away (17)33.235.268.4-2.153%18%
Last 10 (10)34.633.468.0+1.270%20%
Last 5 (5)33.633.867.4-0.260%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)32.835.468.2-2.654%31%
vs Similar (11)36.935.972.8+1.055%27%
vs Weaker (6)40.330.370.7+10.0100%17%
This opponent (Xavier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Xavier win
XAVI win
no forecast
@ 1.04
DETR win
no forecast
@ 11.25
1st half Spread Xavier -18.5 · main lineActual: Xavier -18.5
XAVI -18.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
DETR +18.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 76 · main lineActual: Under 76
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Xavier 1st half total 47 · main lineActual: Xavier under 47
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Detroit 1st half total 28.5 · main lineActual: Detroit under 28.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 2.20
1st half Over/Under 74.5Actual: Under 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.67
Under
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread Xavier -19.5Actual: Xavier -19.5
XAVI -19.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
DETR +19.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Xavier -17.5Actual: Xavier -17.5
XAVI -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
DETR +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread Xavier -20.5Actual: Xavier -20.5
XAVI -20.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
DETR +20.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half Spread Xavier -16.5Actual: Xavier -16.5
XAVI -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
DETR +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.47
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.45
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half Spread Xavier -15.5Actual: Xavier -15.5
XAVI -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
DETR +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
1st half Spread Xavier -14.5Actual: Xavier -14.5
XAVI -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
DETR +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Xavier (regulation)
XAVI
no forecast
@ 1.05
Draw
no forecast
@ 51.00
DETR
no forecast
@ 10.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
XAVI win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
DETR win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: XAVI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Detroit +24.571.8%2.95
Betano
2.95		----+40.2ppLost
Xavier under 93.577.2%2.07
Betano
2.07		----+32.5ppLost
Xavier under 92.574.0%2.18
Betano
2.18		----+32.5ppLost
Xavier under 91.570.6%2.37
Betano
2.37		----+32.4ppLost
Xavier under 9582.3%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+32.3ppLost
Xavier under 95.582.8%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80		+32.0ppLost
Xavier under 94.580.1%1.90
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85		--+31.6ppLost
Xavier under 96.585.3%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+31.0ppLost
Xavier under 97.587.5%1.57
Betano
1.57		----+29.7ppLost
Xavier under 98.589.4%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+28.9ppLost
Xavier under 99.591.1%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+27.2ppLost
Detroit over 62.571.0%1.81
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Betano
1.78		-+19.8ppLost
Detroit over 61.574.3%1.67
Betano
1.67		----+19.0ppLost
Detroit over 60.577.4%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+18.4ppLost
Detroit over 59.580.3%1.45
Betano
1.45		----+18.0ppLost
Detroit over 58.583.0%1.38
Betano
1.38		----+17.5ppLost
Detroit over 57.585.4%1.32
Betano
1.32		----+16.9ppLost
Under 163.571.8%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+8.8ppWon
Under 164.573.9%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+8.8ppWon
Under 165.575.8%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+8.1ppWon
Xavier (regulation)92.9%1.01
Betano
1.01		----+2.3ppWon
Xavier win93.9%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----0.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Xavier wins
0
Detroit wins
No previous meetings.
Xavierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HEastern Michigan76-53
03/11/26HMount St. Mary's97-52
12/03/26AUconn68-93
11/03/26AMarquette89-87
07/03/26AVillanova78-91
04/03/26HSeton Hall68-77
28/02/26HGeorgetown91-84
26/02/26AProvidence84-94
21/02/26AButler75-80
17/02/26HVillanova89-92 OT
Detroitlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26AMarquette32-93
10/03/26AWright State63-66
10/03/26ARobert Morris70-64
05/03/26HWisc. Milwaukee84-63
28/02/26AOakland95-89
26/02/26ARobert Morris62-73
22/02/26HWisc. Green Bay74-70
21/02/26HWisc. Milwaukee91-86
15/02/26HYoungstown State76-70
13/02/26AWright State77-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Xavier
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game86.586.5-
Allowed / game52.552.5-
Point differential+34.0+34.0-
Avg total139.0139.0-
Over 158.50%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Detroit
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallL0%
Home--
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %0%-0%
Points / game32.0-32.0
Allowed / game93.0-93.0
Point differential-61.0--61.0
Avg total125.0-125.0
Over 158.50%-0%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Marquette220100%85.537.5+48.0
2 Xavier220100%86.552.5+34.0
3 Uconn330100%84.754.7+30.0
4 St. John's (N.Y.)220100%91.064.0+27.0
5 Creighton220100%79.558.0+21.5
6 DePaul330100%80.361.7+18.7
7 Georgetown330100%83.070.0+13.0
8 Seton Hall330100%67.054.7+12.3
9 Butler32167%92.075.0+17.0
10 Villanova21150%83.570.0+13.5
11 Providence21150%70.561.5+9.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Horizon League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wright State220100%99.571.0+28.5
2 Wisc. Green Bay32167%78.066.3+11.7
3 Northern Kentucky32167%84.391.3-7.0
4 IPFW21150%87.071.5+15.5
5 Youngstown State21150%72.080.0-8.0
6 Wisc. Milwaukee31233%78.079.3-1.3
7 Cleveland State31233%77.395.0-17.7
8 Oakland4040%66.591.0-24.5
9 Robert Morris2020%52.582.5-30.0
10 Detroit1010%32.093.0-61.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Xavier4357100
Detroit203555
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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