PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Yale hosts Vermont on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Yale as the clear favourite at 93% versus 7% for Vermont, a reflection of Yale's higher points per game of 69.3 against Vermont's 70.0 but stronger defensive average of 79.7 allowed per game versus 67.3, and Yale's 299th league position compared with Vermont's 271st. Both teams are 1-2 this season; Yale has a 1-0 home record, scoring 72.0 and allowing 62.0 at home, while Vermont is 1-1 on the road, averaging 67.0 and conceding 61.5. Yale's last five games include two wins and three losses, with a recent home victory over Howard 72-62, whereas Vermont's recent road win over Fairfield 79-67 is a highlight of their five-game span. Historically Yale has won four of six meetings, most recently 77-74 on 30 November 2025. Pythia projects a score of 82-65, a total of 146.5 points, and a 2% chance of overtime. The home team line is 82-65, and the model estimates a 93% probability that Yale will cover the spread. The final game-day result will confirm whether Yale's offensive surge can overcome Vermont's defensive resilience.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 70.2 | 80.8 | 151.0 | -10.5 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 72.0 | 62.0 | 134.0 | +10.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 69.7 | 87.0 | 156.7 | -17.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.4 | 73.6 | 147.0 | -0.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.0 | 82.2 | 155.2 | -9.2 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 70.2 | 80.8 | 151.0 | -10.5 | 25% |
| vs Similar (3) | 87.3 | 92.3 | 179.7 | -5.0 | 67% |
| vs Weaker (22) | 79.8 | 68.1 | 147.9 | +11.7 | 82% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 78.5 | 65.2 | 143.8 | +13.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 90.0 | 69.0 | 159.0 | +21.0 | 50% |
| Season away (2) | 67.0 | 61.5 | 128.5 | +5.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 71.8 | 63.0 | 134.8 | +8.8 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.6 | 67.0 | 141.6 | +7.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 64.8 | 70.2 | 135.0 | -5.5 | 25% |
| vs Similar (2) | 74.5 | 64.0 | 138.5 | +10.5 | 100% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 70.8 | 65.6 | 136.4 | +5.3 | 65% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.4 | 33.8 | 71.3 | +3.6 | 63% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 40.2 | 33.2 | 73.4 | +7.0 | 73% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 34.7 | 34.5 | 69.1 | +0.2 | 53% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.5 | 36.4 | 72.9 | +0.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.0 | 38.4 | 75.4 | -1.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (4) | 36.5 | 37.8 | 74.2 | -1.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 38.3 | 41.3 | 79.7 | -3.0 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (22) | 37.5 | 32.5 | 70.0 | +5.0 | 64% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 33.1 | 30.2 | 63.3 | +2.9 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 35.1 | 29.5 | 64.6 | +5.6 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 30.7 | 31.0 | 61.7 | -0.3 | 43% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.1 | 27.6 | 62.7 | +7.5 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.4 | 29.0 | 67.4 | +9.4 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 28.5 | 33.0 | 61.5 | -4.5 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 35.5 | 24.0 | 59.5 | +11.5 | 100% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (23) | 32.6 | 30.2 | 62.8 | +2.4 | 65% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 | Vermont v Yale | 74-77 |
| 07/12/24 | Yale v Vermont | 65-50 |
| 03/12/23 | Vermont v Yale | 66-65 |
| 23/11/22 | Yale v Vermont | 73-44 |
| 19/11/21 | Vermont v Yale | 61-53 |
| 01/12/19 | Yale v Vermont | 65-52 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Northeastern | 73-84 |
| 11/11/26 | A | Baylor | 61-90 |
| 07/11/26 | A | UCF Knights | 75-87 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Howard | 72-62 |
| 15/03/26 | H | Penn | 84-88 OT |
| 14/03/26 | H | Cornell | 88-76 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Princeton | 78-53 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Columbia | 60-54 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Cornell | 69-72 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Penn | 74-70 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Plattsburgh | 104-59 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Quinnipiac | 76-79 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Fairfield | 79-67 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Iona | 55-56 |
| 14/03/26 | A | UMBC Retrievers | 59-74 |
| 10/03/26 | H | NJIT | 63-54 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Bryant University | 77-57 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Albany Great Danes | 69-56 |
| 27/02/26 | H | UMass Lowell | 66-64 |
| 22/02/26 | A | NJIT | 70-64 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLL | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 70.2 | 72.0 | 69.7 |
| Allowed / game | 80.8 | 62.0 | 87.0 |
| Point differential | -10.5 | +10.0 | -17.3 |
| Avg total | 151.0 | 134.0 | 156.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLW | 50% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Points / game | 78.5 | 90.0 | 67.0 |
| Allowed / game | 65.2 | 69.0 | 61.5 |
| Point differential | +13.2 | +21.0 | +5.5 |
| Avg total | 143.8 | 159.0 | 128.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Columbia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 85.8 | 64.0 | +21.8 |
| 2 |  Dartmouth | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.0 | 66.5 | +16.5 |
| 3 |  Princeton | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 68.8 | 61.2 | +7.5 |
| 4 |  Harvard | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 65.8 | 62.8 | +3.0 |
| 5 |  Cornell | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.2 | 75.8 | +2.5 |
| 6 |  Penn | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75.2 | 85.2 | -10.0 |
| 7 | Yale | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.2 | 80.8 | -10.5 |
| 8 |  Brown | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 68.4 | 70.2 | -1.8 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UMass Lowell | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.2 | 62.8 | +16.5 |
| 2 |  Binghamton | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 67.6 | 67.4 | +0.2 |
| 3 | Vermont | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 78.5 | 65.2 | +13.2 |
| 4 |  UMBC Retrievers | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 70.4 | 73.8 | -3.4 |
| 5 |  Maine Black Bears | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 64.2 | 72.0 | -7.8 |
| 6 |  Bryant University | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 60.2 | 71.8 | -11.6 |
| 7 |  NJIT | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 55.7 | 77.3 | -21.7 |
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