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Arkansas vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 04 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 89-80
47-29 42-51
Position#36
Record5-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game88.1
Allowed / game71.6
vs
Position#53
Record7-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game96.7
Allowed / game63.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Arkansas v Louisville
03 Dec 2025
ARKA89
LOUI80
21 Nov 2022
ARKA80
LOUI54
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ArkansasUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas
#114
W
79-72
79
72
+7
A20/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
W
75-66
75
66
+9
A22/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#33
L
83-85 OT
83
85
-2
A28/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
109-77
109
77
+32
H04/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A09/11
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
93-56
93
56
+37
H12/11
NCAA
Samford
#149
W
79-75
79
75
+4
H15/11
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
84-83
84
83
+1
H19/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
115-61
115
61
+54
H22/11
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
71-80
71
80
-9
H28/11
NCAA
1H
2H
47-44
32-28
35-32
40-34
38-31
34-41
57-32
52-45
39-36
27-33
43-34
50-22
45-35
34-40
43-41
41-42
47-19
68-42
35-41
36-39
157.8Avg total
85.4Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.171.6159.7+16.671%
Season at home (6)91.872.0163.8+19.883%
Season away (1)66.069.0135.0-3.00%
Last 10 (10)85.472.4157.8+13.070%
Last 5 (5)88.471.0159.4+17.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)71.377.6148.9-6.222%
vs Similar ◀ (14)78.273.9152.1+4.464%
vs Weaker (7)81.769.9151.6+11.971%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
W
76-73
76
73
+3
H15/03
NCAA
Duke
#7
L
62-73
62
73
-11
A16/03
NCAA
Creighton
#59
L
75-89
75
89
-14
H20/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
104-45
104
45
+59
H04/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H07/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
96-88
96
88
+8
H12/11
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
106-81
106
81
+25
H15/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A21/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
87-46
87
46
+41
H25/11
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
104-47
104
47
+57
H27/11
NCAA
1H
2H
33-28
43-45
38-33
24-40
34-49
41-40
59-15
45-30
55-35
51-35
53-46
43-42
59-44
47-37
28-32
46-32
33-17
54-29
52-20
52-27
156.6Avg total
89.0Scored
67.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)96.763.0159.7+33.7100%
Season at home (6)100.562.8163.3+37.7100%
Season away (1)74.064.0138.0+10.0100%
Last 10 (10)89.067.6156.6+21.480%
Last 5 (5)93.465.2158.6+28.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)62.073.0135.0-11.00%
vs Similar ◀ (7)81.073.6154.6+7.486%
vs Weaker (22)84.565.0149.5+19.595%
This opponent (Arkansas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +8.4+8.41st half: +12.5+12.52nd half2nd half: +4.8+4.82nd half: +8.9+8.9
-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +8.4+8.41st half: +12.5+12.52nd half2nd half: +4.8+4.82nd half: +8.9+8.9
ArkansasLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ArkansasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kansas
#114
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A20/03
NCAA
St. John's (N.Y.)
#10
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A22/03
NCAA
Texas Tech
#33
W
38-31
38
31
+7
A28/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
57-32
57
32
+25
H04/11
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A09/11
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
43-34
43
34
+9
H12/11
NCAA
Samford
#149
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H15/11
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H19/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
47-19
47
19
+28
H22/11
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H28/11
NCAA
77.4Avg total
42.9Scored
34.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.136.073.1+1.153%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.235.274.4+4.150%-
Last 30 away (14)34.636.971.5-2.457%-
Last 10 (10)42.934.577.4+8.490%-
Last 5 (5)42.634.076.6+8.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.038.671.6-5.622%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)38.236.975.1+1.464%-
vs Weaker (7)40.031.071.0+9.071%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Clemson
#22
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H15/03
NCAA
Duke
#7
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A16/03
NCAA
Creighton
#59
L
34-49
34
49
-15
H20/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
59-15
59
15
+44
H04/11
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
W
55-35
55
35
+20
H07/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H12/11
NCAA
Ohio
#241
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H15/11
NCAA
Cincinnati
#161
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A21/11
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#322
W
33-17
33
17
+16
H25/11
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
52-20
52
20
+32
H27/11
NCAA
76.3Avg total
44.4Scored
31.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.230.171.3+11.190%-
Last 30 at home (19)43.230.874.0+12.489%-
Last 30 away (11)37.729.066.7+8.791%-
Last 10 (10)44.431.976.3+12.580%-
Last 5 (5)45.031.876.8+13.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)38.033.071.0+5.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)38.633.972.4+4.786%-
vs Weaker (22)42.228.871.0+13.491%-
This opponent (Arkansas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Arkansas wins
0
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
21/11/22Arkansas v Louisville80-54
Arkansaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/11/25HDuke71-80
22/11/25HJackson State115-61
19/11/25HWinthrop84-83
15/11/25HSamford79-75
12/11/25HCentral Arkansas93-56
09/11/25AMichigan State66-69
04/11/25HSouthern Univ.109-77
28/03/25ATexas Tech83-85 OT
22/03/25ASt. John's (N.Y.)75-66
20/03/25AKansas79-72
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/25HNJIT104-47
25/11/25HEastern Michigan87-46
21/11/25ACincinnati74-64
15/11/25HOhio106-81
12/11/25HKentucky96-88
07/11/25HJackson State106-70
04/11/25HSouth Carolina St104-45
20/03/25HCreighton75-89
16/03/25ADuke62-73
15/03/25HClemson76-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL71%
HomeWWWWL83%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games761
Win %71%83%0%
Points / game88.191.866.0
Allowed / game71.672.069.0
Point differential+16.6+19.8-3.0
Avg total159.7163.8135.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games761
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game96.7100.574.0
Allowed / game63.062.864.0
Point differential+33.7+37.7+10.0
Avg total159.7163.3138.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+86%83%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 LSU770100%94.368.3+26.0
2 Vanderbilt880100%97.973.5+24.4
3 Georgia98189%99.971.2+28.7
4 Missouri98189%90.469.0+21.4
5 Tennessee97278%83.065.0+18.0
6 Texas A&M97278%92.275.1+17.1
7 Texas86275%90.971.9+19.0
8 Auburn86275%88.574.6+13.9
9 Oklahoma86275%86.573.6+12.9
10 Arkansas75271%88.171.6+16.6
11 Alabama75271%95.682.0+13.6
12 Kentucky85362%86.663.6+23.0
13 Florida85362%83.471.9+11.5
14 South Carolina85362%81.072.0+9.0
15 Ole Miss85362%77.568.6+8.9
16 Mississippi St.74357%82.079.0+3.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville770100%96.763.0+33.7
2 Duke990100%89.159.6+29.6
3 SMU Mustangs880100%92.074.0+18.0
4 Clemson87188%85.263.8+21.5
5 North Carolina87188%81.265.5+15.8
6 California87188%83.869.9+13.9
7 Stanford87188%82.971.9+11.0
8 Miami (FL)97278%85.365.4+19.9
9 Virginia Tech97278%83.074.9+8.1
10 Virginia86275%83.472.4+11.0
11 NC State75271%93.676.6+17.0
12 Wake Forest96367%85.273.4+11.8
13 Notre Dame96367%75.467.7+7.8
14 Syracuse85362%73.264.6+8.6
15 Florida State85362%86.478.0+8.4
16 Georgia Tech85362%71.567.5+4.0
17 Pittsburgh95456%71.768.1+3.6
18 Boston College84450%70.565.6+4.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas474289
Louisville295180
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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