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Duke vs Louisville Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 16 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 73-62
33-38 40-24
Position#7
Record30-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game61.9
Duke 🏆
USA
vs
Louisville
USA
Position#26
Record27-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game79.1
Allowed / game68.8
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Duke v Louisville
26 Jan 2026
DUKE83
LOUI52
15 Mar 2025
DUKE73
LOUI62
28 Feb 2024
DUKE84
LOUI59
20 Feb 2023
DUKE79
LOUI62
27 Feb 2021
DUKE73
LOUI80
18 Jan 2020
DUKE73
LOUI79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#268
W
78-57
78
57
+21
H13/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H15/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
80-62
80
62
+18
A18/02
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
110-67
110
67
+43
A23/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
97-60
97
60
+37
A26/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
100-65
100
65
+35
H02/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
93-60
93
60
+33
H04/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
82-69
82
69
+13
A08/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
W
78-70
78
70
+8
H13/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H14/03
NCAA
1H
2H
38-23
40-34
49-34
57-36
43-29
37-33
54-37
56-30
47-32
50-28
47-30
53-35
40-27
53-33
43-42
39-27
26-31
52-39
45-24
29-47
154.9Avg total
89.8Scored
65.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)83.061.9144.9+21.191%
Season at home (21)83.361.8145.0+21.590%
Season away (12)82.562.2144.7+20.392%
Last 10 (10)89.865.1154.9+24.7100%
Last 5 (5)85.467.0152.4+18.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)82.461.5143.9+20.893%
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#344
W
88-78
88
78
+10
H08/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
91-66
91
66
+25
A13/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
75-60
75
60
+15
A17/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
89-81
89
81
+8
H22/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
71-66
71
66
+5
A26/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
79-68
79
68
+11
H01/03
NCAA
California
#268
W
85-68
85
68
+17
H06/03
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
68-48
68
48
+20
H08/03
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
75-73
75
73
+2
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
W
76-73
76
73
+3
H15/03
NCAA
1H
2H
46-38
42-40
41-27
50-39
35-28
40-32
45-31
44-50
34-26
37-40
39-33
40-35
41-26
44-42
33-18
35-30
30-33
45-40
33-28
43-45
147.8Avg total
79.7Scored
68.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)79.168.8147.9+10.382%
Season at home (20)77.069.0146.1+8.080%
Season away (13)82.268.4150.6+13.885%
Last 10 (10)79.768.1147.8+11.6100%
Last 5 (5)76.666.0142.6+10.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)65.076.0141.0-11.00%
vs Similar (9)79.674.0153.6+5.678%
vs Weaker (20)79.066.9145.9+12.190%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.3+12.31st half: +8.9+8.92nd half2nd half: +12.4+12.42nd half: +2.7+2.7
-16-8+0+8+161st half1st half: +12.3+12.31st half: +8.9+8.92nd half2nd half: +12.4+12.42nd half: +2.7+2.7
DukeLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
California
#268
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H13/02
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H15/02
NCAA
Virginia
#230
W
43-29
43
29
+14
A18/02
NCAA
Illinois
#100
W
54-37
54
37
+17
A23/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#344
W
47-32
47
32
+15
A26/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H02/03
NCAA
Wake Forest
#87
W
40-27
40
27
+13
H04/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#196
L
26-31
26
31
-5
H13/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#111
W
45-24
45
24
+21
H14/03
NCAA
74.1Avg total
43.2Scored
30.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.129.469.5+10.687%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.627.667.2+12.083%-
Last 30 away (12)40.832.272.9+8.692%-
Last 10 (10)43.230.974.1+12.390%-
Last 5 (5)40.230.871.0+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)40.129.469.5+10.687%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#344
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H08/02
NCAA
NC State
#293
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A13/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#241
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A17/02
NCAA
Florida State
#177
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H22/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#286
W
34-26
34
26
+8
A26/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#173
W
39-33
39
33
+6
H01/03
NCAA
California
#268
W
41-26
41
26
+15
H06/03
NCAA
Stanford
#127
W
33-18
33
18
+15
H08/03
NCAA
Stanford
#127
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H13/03
NCAA
Clemson
#22
W
33-28
33
28
+5
H15/03
NCAA
66.5Avg total
37.7Scored
28.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.630.868.5+6.880%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.831.469.2+6.476%-
Last 30 away (13)37.430.167.5+7.385%-
Last 10 (10)37.728.866.5+8.990%-
Last 5 (5)35.227.662.8+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)37.033.070.0+4.0100%-
vs Similar (9)38.033.471.4+4.678%-
vs Weaker (20)37.529.667.0+7.980%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Duke wins
3
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
08/12/24Louisville v Duke65-76
29/02/24Duke v Louisville84-59
24/01/24Louisville v Duke69-83
21/02/23Duke v Louisville79-62
29/01/22Louisville v Duke65-74
10/03/21Louisville v Duke56-70
27/02/21Duke v Louisville73-80 OT
23/01/21Louisville v Duke70-65
18/01/20Duke v Louisville73-79
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/25HNorth Carolina74-71
13/03/25HGeorgia Tech78-70
08/03/25ANorth Carolina82-69
04/03/25HWake Forest93-60
02/03/25HFlorida State100-65
26/02/25AMiami (FL)97-60
23/02/25AIllinois110-67
18/02/25AVirginia80-62
15/02/25HStanford106-70
13/02/25HCalifornia78-57
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/03/25HClemson76-73
13/03/25HStanford75-73
08/03/25HStanford68-48
06/03/25HCalifornia85-68
01/03/25HPittsburgh79-68
26/02/25AVirginia Tech71-66
22/02/25HFlorida State89-81
17/02/25ANotre Dame75-60
13/02/25ANC State91-66
08/02/25HMiami (FL)88-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Duke
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW91%
HomeWWWWW90%
AwayLWWWW92%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games332112
Win %91%90%92%
Points / game83.083.382.5
Allowed / game61.961.862.2
Point differential+21.1+21.5+20.3
Avg total144.9145.0144.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+76%71%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)33% (3)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW82%
HomeWWWWW80%
AwayLWWWW85%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games332013
Win %82%80%85%
Points / game79.177.082.2
Allowed / game68.869.068.4
Point differential+10.3+8.0+13.8
Avg total147.9146.1150.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+58%55%62%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)80% (5)100% (2)
Overtime %3%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke3330391%83.061.9+21.1
2 Clemson3327682%76.365.7+10.7
3 Louisville3327682%79.168.8+10.3
4 SMU Mustangs33231070%80.071.1+8.9
5 Wake Forest32211166%70.268.0+2.2
6 North Carolina35221363%80.875.0+5.8
7 Stanford33201361%73.070.6+2.4
8 Pittsburgh32171553%75.970.8+5.0
9 Florida State32171553%74.572.5+2.0
10 Georgia Tech33171652%73.472.4+0.9
11 Virginia32151747%64.866.8-2.0
12 Notre Dame33151845%72.672.5+0.2
13 California33141942%75.676.8-1.2
14 Syracuse33141942%74.777.8-3.1
15 Virginia Tech32131941%69.273.2-4.0
16 NC State31121939%69.570.3-0.8
17 Boston College31121939%70.475.8-5.4
18 Miami (FL)3172423%74.080.6-6.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Duke334073
Louisville382462
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