PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Auburn faces West Virginia on 17 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Auburn the clear favourite with an 83% chance of victory, a reflection of their undefeated 2-0 record, 83.5 points scored per game and 56.0 points allowed per game, placing them 31st in the league. West Virginia comes in 3-0, 85.7 points scored per game and 53.3 points allowed per game, 13th in the standings, but their record is slightly better on paper. Auburn has won both home games, 83.5 points per game at home, and has won three of its last five, with recent wins over Appalachian State 75-53 and SE Louisiana 92-59, though they lost 62-72 to Tennessee away. West Virginia has won all three of its recent games, 75-61 over Mercer, 91-53 over Stetson and 91-46 over Niagara, all at home, and has won four of its last five. The only prior meeting was on 28 January 2023, when West Virginia beat Auburn 80-77. Pythia projects a 79-69 score, 148.2 total points, and an 83% probability that Auburn covers the spread, with a 3% chance of overtime. The next game will decide whether Auburn can maintain its early-season momentum against a flawless West Virginia squad.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 83.5 | 56.0 | 139.5 | +27.5 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 83.5 | 56.0 | 139.5 | +27.5 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.8 | 75.6 | 155.4 | +4.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.4 | 68.2 | 146.6 | +10.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 78.0 | 86.0 | 164.0 | -8.0 | 23% |
| vs Similar (11) | 84.5 | 78.4 | 162.9 | +6.2 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 81.0 | 67.3 | 148.3 | +13.7 | 83% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 85.7 | 53.3 | 139.0 | +32.3 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 85.7 | 53.3 | 139.0 | +32.3 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 71.8 | 63.8 | 135.6 | +8.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.4 | 58.0 | 134.4 | +18.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 53.3 | 81.7 | 135.0 | -28.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 68.9 | 67.1 | 136.0 | +1.8 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (11) | 76.8 | 58.1 | 134.9 | +18.7 | 73% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.9 | 37.8 | 74.7 | -0.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.6 | 36.1 | 74.7 | +2.6 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.5 | 40.1 | 74.6 | -5.5 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.1 | 38.0 | 74.1 | -1.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.6 | 33.8 | 68.4 | +0.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 35.2 | 40.8 | 75.9 | -5.6 | 31% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 39.9 | 36.4 | 76.3 | +3.5 | 55% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 35.0 | 34.0 | 69.0 | +1.0 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (29) | 32.0 | 31.1 | 63.1 | +0.9 | 48% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.0 | 29.6 | 64.6 | +5.4 | 65% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 27.8 | 33.3 | 61.1 | -5.6 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (9) | 31.8 | 30.0 | 61.8 | +1.8 | 56% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.4 | 27.4 | 60.8 | +6.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 23.0 | 39.0 | 62.0 | -16.0 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 31.6 | 31.2 | 62.9 | +0.4 | 44% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 35.3 | 28.6 | 63.9 | +6.7 | 70% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Appalachian State | 75-53 |
| 05/11/26 | H | SE Louisiana | 92-59 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Tennessee | 62-72 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Mississippi St. | 79-61 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Alabama | 84-96 |
| 04/03/26 | H | LSU | 88-74 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Ole Miss | 79-85 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Oklahoma | 79-91 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Kentucky | 75-74 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Mississippi St. | 85-91 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Mercer | 75-61 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Stetson | 91-53 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Niagara | 91-46 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Brigham Young | 48-68 |
| 07/03/26 | H | UCF Knights | 77-62 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Kansas State | 63-65 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Brigham Young | 79-71 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Oklahoma State | 84-91 OT |
| 21/02/26 | A | TCU | 54-60 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Utah Utes | 56-61 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 2 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 83.5 | 83.5 | - |
| Allowed / game | 56.0 | 56.0 | - |
| Point differential | +27.5 | +27.5 | - |
| Avg total | 139.5 | 139.5 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 85.7 | 85.7 | - |
| Allowed / game | 53.3 | 53.3 | - |
| Point differential | +32.3 | +32.3 | - |
| Avg total | 139.0 | 139.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 56.3 | +37.7 |
| 4 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 5 |  Texas A&M | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 99.2 | 67.2 | +32.0 |
| 6 |  Vanderbilt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 90.7 | 59.7 | +31.0 |
| 7 | Auburn | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 56.0 | +27.5 |
| 8 |  Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 |  Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  South Carolina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 54.7 | +24.0 |
| 11 |  Florida | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 65.3 | +16.7 |
| 12 |  Georgia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.3 | +12.7 |
| 13 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 14 |  Arkansas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 68.3 | +16.3 |
| 15 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kentucky | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 75.3 | +5.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  TCU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 101.3 | 68.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 | West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 4 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 5 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 6 |  Arizona State | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.3 | 63.7 | +19.7 |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 59.3 | +19.3 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 79.7 | +6.7 |
| 10 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 11 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 12 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 13 |  Arizona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 89.7 | 75.7 | +14.0 |
| 14 |  Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 60.0 | +13.7 |
| 15 |  Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 70.3 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
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