PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Auburn faces Appalachian State on 9 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Auburn as the clear favourite because of its 1-0 record, 92.0 points per game and only 59.0 points allowed, placing it 43rd in the league, while Appalachian State sits 165th with a 1-1 record, 78.5 points scored and 53.0 points allowed. Auburn's sole game this season was a 92-59 home win over SE Louisiana, and its last five games include three wins and two losses, with a recent 79-61 victory over Mississippi St.; Appalachian State's two games included a 108-43 home win over Christendom and a 49-63 road loss to Merrimack Warriors, with two wins and three losses in its last five. The teams have split their two meetings, the most recent being a 69-64 Appalachian State win on 3 December 2023. Pythia projects a 83-66 score, giving Auburn a 92% chance to win and Appalachian State an 8% chance, with a projected total of 148.8 points and a 2% overtime probability. The home team's line is 83-66, and the model assigns a 92% probability that Auburn will cover the spread. Auburn's dominant scoring margin and defensive record suggest it will finish the game comfortably.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (1) | 92.0 | 59.0 | 151.0 | +33.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (1) | 92.0 | 59.0 | 151.0 | +33.0 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.8 | 79.1 | 158.9 | +0.7 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 81.0 | 72.4 | 153.4 | +8.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 78.0 | 86.0 | 164.0 | -8.0 | 23% |
| vs Similar (11) | 84.5 | 78.4 | 162.9 | +6.2 | 64% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 87.2 | 69.5 | 156.7 | +17.7 | 83% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 78.5 | 53.0 | 131.5 | +25.5 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 108.0 | 43.0 | 151.0 | +65.0 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 49.0 | 63.0 | 112.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 73.8 | 67.1 | 140.9 | +6.7 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.2 | 65.2 | 140.4 | +10.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 86.0 | 78.0 | 164.0 | +8.0 | 100% |
| vs Similar (7) | 68.3 | 68.7 | 137.0 | -0.4 | 29% |
| vs Weaker (21) | 71.6 | 64.8 | 136.4 | +6.8 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.4 | 37.4 | 74.8 | +0.0 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 39.6 | 35.4 | 75.0 | +4.3 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.5 | 40.1 | 74.6 | -5.5 | 23% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.5 | 38.2 | 73.7 | -2.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.2 | 33.4 | 68.6 | +1.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (13) | 35.2 | 40.8 | 75.9 | -5.6 | 31% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 39.9 | 36.4 | 76.3 | +3.5 | 55% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 37.8 | 32.0 | 69.8 | +5.8 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.7 | 30.2 | 63.0 | +2.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 34.7 | 31.0 | 65.7 | +3.7 | 62% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 30.5 | 29.4 | 59.9 | +1.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.5 | 32.2 | 66.7 | +2.3 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.6 | 33.8 | 68.4 | +0.8 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (1) | 34.0 | 33.0 | 67.0 | +1.0 | 100% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 33.1 | 33.6 | 66.7 | -0.4 | 57% | - |
| vs Weaker (21) | 31.7 | 29.7 | 61.4 | +2.0 | 57% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 03/12/23 | Appalachian State v Auburn | 69-64 |
| 22/12/20 | Auburn v Appalachian State | 67-53 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | H | SE Louisiana | 92-59 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Tennessee | 62-72 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Mississippi St. | 79-61 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Alabama | 84-96 |
| 04/03/26 | H | LSU | 88-74 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Ole Miss | 79-85 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Oklahoma | 79-91 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Kentucky | 75-74 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Mississippi St. | 85-91 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Arkansas | 75-88 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | H | Christendom | 108-43 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Merrimack Warriors | 49-63 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Southern Miss | 73-86 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Texas State | 57-60 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 89-74 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Marshall | 93-94 |
| 14/02/26 | A | James Madison | 58-69 |
| 12/02/26 | A | Georgia Southern | 81-65 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Eastern Michigan | 65-60 |
| 04/02/26 | H | South Alabama | 65-57 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W | 100% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 1 | 1 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 92.0 | 92.0 | - |
| Allowed / game | 59.0 | 59.0 | - |
| Point differential | +33.0 | +33.0 | - |
| Avg total | 151.0 | 151.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 78.5 | 108.0 | 49.0 |
| Allowed / game | 53.0 | 43.0 | 63.0 |
| Point differential | +25.5 | +65.0 | -14.0 |
| Avg total | 131.5 | 151.0 | 112.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 100.0 | 57.0 | +43.0 |
| 2 |  LSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 52.7 | +41.3 |
| 3 |  Ole Miss | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 95.5 | 59.0 | +36.5 |
| 4 |  Texas A&M | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 66.7 | +36.3 |
| 5 |  Vanderbilt | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.5 | 49.0 | +34.5 |
| 6 | Auburn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 92.0 | 59.0 | +33.0 |
| 7 |  Mississippi St. | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 63.0 | +32.3 |
| 8 |  Tennessee | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 53.0 | +27.0 |
| 9 |  Alabama | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 76.0 | +26.0 |
| 10 |  Florida | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 82.5 | 62.0 | +20.5 |
| 11 |  Kentucky | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 68.5 | +18.5 |
| 12 |  South Carolina | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 79.5 | 61.5 | +18.0 |
| 13 |  Georgia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 70.3 | +12.7 |
| 14 |  Missouri | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 66.0 | +31.0 |
| 15 |  Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.3 | 65.7 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Arkansas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 89.0 | 76.0 | +13.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 101.0 | 60.5 | +40.5 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 52.7 | +25.3 |
| 3 | Appalachian State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 78.5 | 53.0 | +25.5 |
| 4 |  Southern Miss | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 69.5 | 59.0 | +10.5 |
| 5 |  Georgia Southern | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.0 | 75.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 |  South Alabama | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 80.0 | 83.0 | -3.0 |
| 7 |  Arkansas State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 78.5 | 85.5 | -7.0 |
| 8 |  Georgia State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.7 | 71.3 | +12.3 |
| 9 |  Marshall | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 80.7 | 76.7 | +4.0 |
| 10 |  Louisiana Monroe | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.3 | 82.0 | -0.7 |
| 11 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 |  Coastal Carolina | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 62.3 | 80.0 | -17.7 |
| 13 |  James Madison | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 78.5 | 87.5 | -9.0 |
| 14 |  Troy | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 64.0 | 81.0 | -17.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | 38 | 37 | 75 |
| Appalachian State | 36 | 17 | 53 |
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