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Avellino vs Brescia Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 10 Feb 2019
Tip-off: 11:00
Final 79-67
18-26 22-15 21-8 18-18
Position#9
Record11-7
FormLLLLL
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game81.4
vs
Position#12
Record8-10
FormLWWWL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game79.6
ItalyLega ARound 19
Domestic2018-19
Meetings · Avellino v Brescia
10 Feb 2019
AVE79
BRE67
28 Jan 2018
AVE95
BRE96
30 Oct 2016
AVE92
BRE79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Avellino winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brescia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AvellinoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#5
W
70-68
70
68
+2
A05/01
Lega A
Anwil Wloclawek
#39
W
72-62
72
62
+10
A08/01
Champions League
Pistoia
#16
W
82-78
82
78
+4
H13/01
Lega A
Murcia
#2
L
57-63
57
63
-6
H16/01
Champions League
Cantu
#8
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A19/01
Lega A
Banvit
#15
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A22/01
Champions League
Cremona
#3
L
62-70
62
70
-8
H27/01
Lega A
Le Mans
#31
L
68-81
68
81
-13
H30/01
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A03/02
Lega A
Ventspils
#32
L
102-106 OT
102
106
-4
A05/02
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-15
20-24
17-14
17-15
23-15
16-16
17-9
16-22
20-19
17-25
26-18
19-16
16-21
16-11
8-18
17-13
13-19
16-18
22-24
22-22
19-27
27-25
17-24
25-20
19-15
15-21
12-20
16-14
23-16
15-19
10-27
20-19
28-27
10-26
18-17
10-18
26-23
24-24
15-15
25-28
153.5Avg total
74.0Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)80.781.4162.1-0.861%
Season at home (9)82.779.6162.2+3.167%
Season away (9)78.783.3162.0-4.756%
Last 10 (10)74.079.5153.5-5.530%
Last 5 (5)77.288.2165.4-11.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)75.482.0157.4-6.630%
vs Similar ◀ (14)80.884.5165.3-3.750%
vs Weaker (6)88.277.7165.8+10.5100%
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#8
W
81-63
81
63
+18
H16/12
Lega A
Ulm
#10
L
80-97
80
97
-17
H19/12
Eurocup
Cremona
#3
W
91-88
91
88
+3
A22/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
75-87
75
87
-12
A25/12
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
71-95
71
95
-24
H30/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A06/01
Lega A
Venezia
#2
W
72-70
72
70
+2
H12/01
Lega A
Varese
#7
W
78-73
78
73
+5
H20/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
82-79
82
79
+3
A27/01
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
77-85
77
85
-8
H03/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-14
18-15
17-22
21-12
17-28
18-23
22-22
23-24
22-20
24-25
18-24
27-19
22-28
18-18
16-17
19-24
13-31
20-25
22-26
16-13
16-24
18-18
29-21
17-25
22-17
12-25
22-13
16-15
16-17
25-11
22-25
15-20
24-29
22-15
20-14
16-21
15-32
22-20
16-19
24-14
161.2Avg total
78.7Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)78.279.6157.8-1.444%
Season at home (9)78.177.7155.8+0.467%
Season away (9)78.281.6159.8-3.322%
Last 10 (10)78.782.5161.2-3.850%
Last 5 (5)77.879.0156.8-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)77.484.6162.0-7.229%
vs Similar ◀ (10)78.775.9154.6+2.850%
vs Weaker (2)77.077.0154.0+0.050%
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -4.8-4.8Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +0.7+0.7
AvellinoBrescia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AvellinoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brindisi
#5
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A05/01
Lega A
Anwil Wloclawek
#39
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A08/01
Champions League
Pistoia
#16
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H13/01
Lega A
Murcia
#2
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H16/01
Champions League
Cantu
#8
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A19/01
Lega A
Banvit
#15
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A22/01
Champions League
Cremona
#3
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H27/01
Lega A
Le Mans
#31
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H30/01
Champions League
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
38-53
38
53
-15
A03/02
Lega A
Ventspils
#32
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A05/02
Champions League
78.5Avg total
37.9Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.041.482.3-0.440%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.942.083.9-0.147%-
Last 30 away (15)40.040.780.7-0.733%-
Last 10 (10)37.940.678.5-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)41.244.685.8-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)39.241.780.9-2.540%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)40.843.183.9-2.436%-
vs Weaker (6)44.336.781.0+7.750%-
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cantu
#8
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H16/12
Lega A
Ulm
#10
L
35-51
35
51
-16
H19/12
Eurocup
Cremona
#3
W
46-45
46
45
+1
A22/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A25/12
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
33-56
33
56
-23
H30/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A06/01
Lega A
Venezia
#2
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H12/01
Lega A
Varese
#7
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H20/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A27/01
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
37-52
37
52
-15
H03/02
Lega A
82.4Avg total
38.9Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.342.081.3-2.747%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.940.980.7-1.053%-
Last 30 away (15)38.743.181.8-4.540%-
Last 10 (10)38.943.582.4-4.640%-
Last 5 (5)38.441.680.0-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)38.045.383.3-7.329%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)41.737.679.3+4.180%-
vs Weaker (2)42.539.582.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Avellino) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Avellinotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Avellino: 75.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.017.3
45.5%
51.0%34.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.88.5
34.3%
35.1%25.5
🏀 Free throws20.815.5
74.5%
72.3%15.5
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 78.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.319.5
48.4%
51.0%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.66.7
31.0%
35.1%20.1
🏀 Free throws26.219.3
73.7%
72.3%19.3
They take 61.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Feb 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Avellino
LLLLLLLWWW
Brescia
LWWWLLLWLW
#9
League position
#12
-6.5
Net rating
-4.5
98.9
Offensive rating
107.4
105.4
Defensive rating
112.0
47.9%
Effective FG%
47.7%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.4%
17.0%
Turnover %
18.9%
23.0%
Off. rebound %
37.6%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.42
34.3%
3-point %
31.0%
71.7%
Assist %
57.6%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence98.9 · 107.4Defence105.4 · 112.0Shooting47.9% · 47.7%3-point %34.3% · 31.0%Ball care17.0% · 18.9%Off. rebounds23.0% · 37.6%Free throws0.33 · 0.42Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Avellino   ■ Brescia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Avellino wins
3
Brescia wins
DateGameScore
27/10/18Brescia v Avellino74-77
28/01/18Avellino v Brescia95-96 OT
08/10/17Brescia v Avellino96-75
26/02/17Brescia v Avellino91-87
30/10/16Avellino v Brescia92-79
Avellinolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/02/19AVentspils102-106 OT
03/02/19AVirtus Bologna66-88
30/01/19HLe Mans68-81
27/01/19HCremona62-70
22/01/19ABanvit88-96
19/01/19ACantu73-83
16/01/19HMurcia57-63
13/01/19HPistoia82-78
08/01/19AAnwil Wloclawek72-62
05/01/19ABrindisi70-68
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/19HTrieste77-85
27/01/19AReggiana82-79
20/01/19HVarese78-73
12/01/19HVenezia72-70
06/01/19AVirtus Bologna80-88
30/12/18HSassari71-95
25/12/18AOlimpia Milano75-87
22/12/18ACremona91-88
19/12/18HUlm80-97
16/12/18HCantu81-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Avellino
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL61%
HomeWWWWL67%
AwayLWWLL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %61%67%56%
Points / game80.782.778.7
Allowed / game81.479.683.3
Point differential-0.8+3.1-4.7
Avg total162.1162.2162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%22%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (6)100% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Brescia
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL44%
HomeWLWWL67%
AwayLWLLW22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %44%67%22%
Points / game78.278.178.2
Allowed / game79.677.781.6
Point differential-1.4+0.4-3.3
Avg total157.8155.8159.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%11%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)80% (5)33% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano1815383%85.877.3+8.5
2 Venezia1813572%81.971.4+10.6
3 Cremona1912763%86.381.9+4.4
4 Brindisi1811761%82.278.6+3.7
5 Avellino1811761%80.781.4-0.8
6 Varese1810856%77.573.8+3.7
7 Virtus Bologna1910953%80.982.1-1.2
8 Sassari189950%88.884.2+4.6
9 Trieste189950%86.084.3+1.7
10 Cantu1991047%84.587.3-2.8
11 Brescia1881044%78.279.6-1.4
12 Trento1881044%77.881.5-3.7
13 Pesaro1861233%82.392.2-9.9
14 Torino1851328%82.186.2-4.1
15 Pistoia1851328%74.683.0-8.4
16 Reggiana1951426%78.683.2-4.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Avellino1822211879
Brescia261581867
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