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Balkan vs Lok. Plovdiv Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 13 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 83-80
Projected total 162.2
Scheduled
Position#1
Record5-0
FormLWWWL
Points / game89.4
Allowed / game71.6
Balkan
Bulgaria
Vs
61%
39%
■ BAL 61%■ LOK. 39%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.0/10
Below normal
5.0/10
Around normal
Lok. Plovdiv
Bulgaria
Position#4
Record4-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game78.0
BulgariaNBLRound 6· Arena Botevgrad
Other2026-27
Meetings · Balkan v Lok. Plovdiv
13 Nov 2026
BAL v LOK.
upcoming
05 Jun 2026
BAL81
LOK.80
27 May 2026
BAL94
LOK.89
25 May 2026
BAL88
LOK.73
14 Mar 2026
BAL82
LOK.90
11 Oct 2025
BAL83
LOK.80
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Balkan host Lok. Plovdiv on 13 November 2026 in the NBL, with the model favouring the home side at 61% to 39% and projecting a 83-80 win; the projected total of 162.4 points sits just above the league average and the model gives a 5% chance of overtime. Balkan are undefeated this season, 5-0, averaging 89.4 points and conceding 71.6, and they are first in the standings; at home they are 2-0, scoring 97.5 and allowing 74.0, and they won three of their last five games, with a recent loss to PAOK 56-79 at home, a win over Spartak Pleven 77-71 away, and a win over KK Bosna 78-69 away. Lok. Plovdiv are 4-1, 88.2 points for and 78.0 against, positioned fourth; on the road they are 2-1, 89.7 points for and 85.3 against, and they also won three of their last five, having lost to VEF Riga 83-85 at home, won against Cherno More 85-69 at home, and won against Neftchi IK 76-72 at home. In the eight meetings between the clubs, Balkan have won five to Lok. Plovdiv's three, with the last encounter ending 81-80 in favour of Balkan on 5 June 2026.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Balkan win
60.9%fair 1.64
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Lok. Plovdiv win
39.1%fair 2.55
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BalkanBulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBalkan
Date
Competition
Botev 2012
#10
W
91-66
91
66
+25
74avg 83
A10/10
NBL
BC Roma
#18
L
72-77 OT
72
77
-5
62avg 83
A13/10
Eurocup
Levski
#12
W
101-83
101
83
+18
98avg 83
H16/10
NBL
Lietkabelis
#21
L
57-64
57
64
-7
54avg 83
H20/10
Eurocup
Yambol
#13
W
84-73
84
73
+11
78avg 83
A23/10
NBL
Manresa
#8
L
65-76
65
76
-11
52avg 83
H27/10
Eurocup
CSKA Sofia
#11
W
94-65
94
65
+29
94avg 83
H30/10
NBL
KK Bosna
#23
W
78-69
78
69
+9
no box
A04/11
Eurocup
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
77-71
77
71
+6
no box
A07/11
NBL
PAOK
#7
L
56-79
56
79
-23
no box
H10/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-24
28-14
24-15
16-13
12-13
21-16
12-18
24-22
26-22
23-14
26-25
26-22
10-13
15-20
20-16
12-15
22-20
19-15
24-16
19-22
17-25
19-14
14-15
15-22
35-14
17-19
21-20
21-12
18-24
23-15
20-16
17-14
22-19
12-25
22-12
21-15
12-19
20-34
9-19
15-7
149.8Avg total
77.5Scored
72.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)89.471.6161.0+17.8100%
Season at home (2)97.574.0171.5+23.5100%
Season away (3)84.070.0154.0+14.0100%
Last 10 (10)77.572.3149.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)74.072.0146.0+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)67.480.6148.0-13.114%
vs Similar (1)79.078.0157.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)88.277.6165.9+10.682%
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lok. PlovdivBulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPlovdiv
Date
Competition
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
92-73
92
73
+19
85avg 83
A11/10
NBL
CSM Oradea
#15
W
79-69
79
69
+10
73avg 83
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Beroe
#9
W
98-95 OT
98
95
+3
85avg 83
A17/10
NBL
Mykonos
#7
L
84-86
84
86
-2
67avg 83
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Polytechnica
#14
W
87-65
87
65
+22
83avg 83
H24/10
NBL
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
95-83
95
83
+12
92avg 83
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rilski Sportist
#3
L
79-88
79
88
-9
66avg 83
A31/10
NBL
Neftchi IK
#38
W
76-72
76
72
+4
no box
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cherno More
#7
W
85-69
85
69
+16
no box
H07/11
NBL
VEF Riga
#12
L
83-85
83
85
-2
no box
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
23-19
29-18
19-21
17-20
26-18
20-15
16-16
24-21
15-19
26-28
22-19
16-14
20-21
24-25
24-26
22-24
22-11
18-20
25-10
24-11
21-20
24-26
26-26
14-25
25-20
17-20
23-23
13-19
23-11
14-23
26-19
24-18
22-14
19-15
20-22
24-20
28-22
17-22
14-21
164.3Avg total
85.8Scored
78.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)88.278.0166.2+10.280%
Season at home (2)86.067.0153.0+19.0100%
Season away (3)89.785.3175.0+4.367%
Last 10 (10)85.878.5164.3+7.370%
Last 5 (5)83.679.4163.0+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)84.587.5172.0-3.038%
vs Similar (1)85.069.0154.0+16.0100%
vs Weaker (13)90.478.6169.0+11.892%
This opponent (Balkan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
39.9%
Under 166
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
28.7%
Under 171
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176
Over 176
19.5%
Under 176
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Balkan total 83.5
Over 83.5
46.5%
Under 83.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balkan total 87.5
Over 87.5
31.7%
Under 87.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Balkan total 91.5
Over 91.5
19.3%
Under 91.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 79.5
Over 79.5
49.7%
Under 79.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 83.5
Over 83.5
34.7%
Under 83.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lok. Plovdiv total 87.5
Over 87.5
22.0%
Under 87.5
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Balkan -3
BAL -3
52.0%
LOK. +3
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
BAL
No market prices yet.
LOK.
No market prices yet.
Spread Balkan 0
BAL 0
60.9%
LOK. 0
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
BAL
No market prices yet.
LOK.
No market prices yet.
Spread Balkan +3
BAL +3
69.5%
LOK. -3
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
BAL
No market prices yet.
LOK.
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +1.2+1.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: +1.2+1.2
BalkanLok. Plovdiv
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BalkanLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Botev 2012
#10
W
51-38
51
38
+13
A10/10
NBL
BC Roma
#18
W
33-29
33
29
+4
A13/10
Eurocup
Levski
#12
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H16/10
NBL
Lietkabelis
#21
L
25-33
25
33
-8
H20/10
Eurocup
Yambol
#13
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A23/10
NBL
Manresa
#8
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H27/10
Eurocup
CSKA Sofia
#11
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H30/10
NBL
KK Bosna
#23
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A04/11
Eurocup
Spartak Pleven
#8
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A07/11
NBL
PAOK
#7
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H10/11
Eurocup
77.3Avg total
39.4Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.140.881.9+0.357%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.140.480.5-0.250%-
Last 30 away (14)42.241.283.4+1.064%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.977.3+1.560%-
Last 5 (5)39.041.680.6-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)32.442.975.3-10.429%-
vs Similar (1)35.043.078.0-8.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.140.084.1+4.168%-
This opponent (Lok. Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Lok. PlovdivLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spartak Pleven
#8
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A11/10
NBL
CSM Oradea
#15
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Beroe
#9
L
39-40
39
40
-1
A17/10
NBL
Mykonos
#7
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A20/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Polytechnica
#14
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H24/10
NBL
Fribourg Olympic
#46
W
45-31
45
31
+14
H28/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Rilski Sportist
#3
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A31/10
NBL
Neftchi IK
#38
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Cherno More
#7
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H07/11
NBL
VEF Riga
#12
W
52-42
52
42
+10
H11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
78.6Avg total
42.4Scored
36.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.540.785.2+3.870%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.838.584.2+7.288%-
Last 30 away (14)43.143.286.3-0.150%-
Last 10 (10)42.436.278.6+6.280%-
Last 5 (5)43.636.079.6+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)43.642.485.9+1.262%-
vs Similar (1)46.032.078.0+14.0100%-
vs Weaker (13)45.539.384.8+6.277%-
This opponent (Balkan) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Balkantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Balkan: 76.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.0 points a game
54%
26%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.6
54.5%
55.5%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.2
30.4%
29.8%24.6
🏀 Free throws16.011.1
69.4%
71.2%11.1
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lok. Plovdivtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lok. Plovdiv: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.0 points a game
54%
26%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.920.7
54.6%
55.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.78.4
31.5%
29.8%25.2
🏀 Free throws22.617.4
77.0%
71.2%17.4
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Balkan
LWWWLWLWLW
Lok. Plovdiv
LWWLWWLWWW
#1
League position
#4
+3.6
Net rating
+6.2
91.7
Offensive rating
96.7
88.1
Defensive rating
90.5
50.8%
Effective FG%
51.5%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
49.7%
17.7%
Turnover %
13.5%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.35
30.4%
3-point %
31.5%
60.8%
Assist %
58.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence91.7 · 96.7Defence88.1 · 90.5Shooting50.8% · 51.5%3-point %30.4% · 31.5%Ball care17.7% · 13.5%Free throws0.25 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Balkan   ■ Lok. Plovdiv
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Balkan wins
3
Lok. Plovdiv wins
DateGameScore
05/06/26Balkan v Lok. Plovdiv81-80
01/06/26Lok. Plovdiv v Balkan84-78
30/05/26Lok. Plovdiv v Balkan82-77
27/05/26Balkan v Lok. Plovdiv94-89 OT
25/05/26Balkan v Lok. Plovdiv88-73
14/03/26Balkan v Lok. Plovdiv82-90
23/12/25Lok. Plovdiv v Balkan89-94
11/10/25Balkan v Lok. Plovdiv83-80
Balkanlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HPAOK56-79
07/11/26ASpartak Pleven77-71
04/11/26AKK Bosna78-69
30/10/26HCSKA Sofia94-65
27/10/26HManresa65-76
23/10/26AYambol84-73
20/10/26HLietkabelis57-64
16/10/26HLevski101-83
13/10/26ABC Roma72-77 OT
10/10/26ABotev 201291-66
Lok. Plovdivlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HVEF Riga83-85
07/11/26HCherno More85-69
04/11/26HNeftchi IK76-72
31/10/26ARilski Sportist79-88
28/10/26HFribourg Olympic95-83
24/10/26HPolytechnica87-65
20/10/26AMykonos84-86
17/10/26ABeroe98-95 OT
14/10/26HCSM Oradea79-69
11/10/26ASpartak Pleven92-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Balkan
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.497.584.0
Allowed / game71.674.070.0
Point differential+17.8+23.5+14.0
Avg total161.0171.5154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lok. Plovdiv
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game88.286.089.7
Allowed / game78.067.085.3
Point differential+10.2+19.0+4.3
Avg total166.2153.0175.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%100%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %20%0%33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Balkan550100%89.471.6+17.8
2 Minyor550100%107.092.4+14.6
3 Rilski Sportist54180%92.674.0+18.6
4 Lok. Plovdiv54180%88.278.0+10.2
5 Botev Academic54180%91.082.6+8.4
6 Shumen54180%94.090.2+3.8
7 Cherno More53260%83.672.8+10.8
8 Spartak Pleven53260%82.476.8+5.6
9 Beroe51420%93.689.0+4.6
10 Botev 201251420%78.891.4-12.6
11 CSKA Sofia51420%78.498.6-20.2
12 Levski5050%78.294.2-16.0
13 Yambol5050%72.292.0-19.8
14 Polytechnica5050%70.896.6-25.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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