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Barreirense vs Maia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 18:30
Projected 75-83
Projected total 158.0
Final 95-85
20-28 23-23 23-11 29-23
Position#13
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game74.5
Allowed / game83.5
Barreirense 🏆
Portugal
Vs
22%
78%
■ BARR 22%■ MAIA 78%
Pythia win probability
Maia
Portugal
Position#10
Record2-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game81.7
PortugalProligaRound 5· Pavilhao Municipal Luis de Carvalho
Other2026-27
Meetings · Barreirense v Maia
31 Oct 2026
BARR95
MAIA85
04 May 2025
BARR72
MAIA76
04 Mar 2023
BARR78
MAIA91
19 Mar 2021
BARR102
MAIA97
29 Dec 2019
BARR107
MAIA79
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Barreirense host Maia in the Proliga. Pythia makes Maia the favourite at 78% and projects 75-83, about 158 points in all (over 158.5: 48%). On the market's main spread (Barreirense +6.5) Pythia gives Barreirense 41% to cover. Overtime chance: 4%. Barreirense are 1-3 this season (74.5 scored, 83.5 allowed a game), form LLLWL; Maia are 2-1 this season (82.0 scored, 81.7 allowed a game), form WWWLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Barreirense winWon
21.8%fair 4.58
Best odds3.25
Implied29.2%
Edge-7.3pp
Maia winLost
78.2%fair 1.28
Best odds1.34
Implied70.8%
Edge+7.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 09:03 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BarreirensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBarreirense
Date
Competition
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
W
84-68
84
68
+16
no box
A23/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
W
83-78
83
78
+5
no box
H29/03
Proliga
Lusitania
#6
L
82-94
82
94
-12
no box
A05/04
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
L
51-58
51
58
-7
no box
A26/04
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
W
76-70
76
70
+6
no box
H27/04
Proliga
Maia
#8
L
72-76
72
76
-4
no box
H04/05
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#3
L
63-71
63
71
-8
47avg 60
H03/10
Proliga
Barcelos
#14
L
79-81 OT
79
81
-2
61avg 60
A10/10
Proliga
Ginasio Olhanense
#12
W
91-90
91
90
+1
84avg 60
H17/10
Proliga
Galomar
#5
L
65-92
65
92
-27
49avg 60
A24/10
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-20
20-18
25-15
25-15
19-22
20-21
20-16
24-19
26-25
23-22
12-28
21-19
7-17
9-6
15-19
20-16
13-24
22-20
19-9
22-17
21-22
17-13
17-18
17-23
21-22
10-22
12-12
20-15
10-22
14-19
18-17
29-13
22-20
29-21
22-19
18-30
9-22
14-29
16-16
26-25
152.4Avg total
74.6Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)74.583.5158.0-9.025%
Season at home (2)77.080.5157.5-3.550%
Season away (2)72.086.5158.5-14.50%
Last 10 (10)74.677.8152.4-3.240%
Last 5 (5)74.082.0156.0-8.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)70.179.6149.7-9.619%
vs Similar (11)76.375.0151.3+1.345%
vs Weaker (3)76.771.0147.7+5.767%
This opponent (Maia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MaiaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMaia
Date
Competition
Illiabum
#7
L
69-72
69
72
-3
54avg 76
A21/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#8
W
87-80
87
80
+7
76avg 76
H28/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#8
W
109-81
109
81
+28
102avg 76
A29/03
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
W
108-100 OT
108
100
+8
96avg 76
H04/04
Proliga
Portimonense
#6
W
73-63
73
63
+10
63avg 76
H18/04
Proliga
CD Povoa
#1
W
75-73
75
73
+2
74avg 76
H25/04
Proliga
Ginasio Olhanense
#11
W
83-73
83
73
+10
85avg 76
A01/05
Proliga
Ginasio Olhanense
#12
W
105-96
105
96
+9
67avg 76
H03/10
Proliga
Santo Andre
#4
L
59-72
59
72
-13
44avg 76
A17/10
Proliga
Lusitania
#6
W
82-77
82
77
+5
76avg 76
H24/10
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-15
20-19
12-18
16-20
24-18
19-22
18-15
26-25
29-18
20-16
32-28
28-19
22-25
27-21
23-23
13-16
23-16
15-10
19-18
16-19
23-12
9-19
18-22
25-20
23-16
22-24
16-13
22-20
30-24
28-23
16-24
31-25
20-10
11-21
16-18
12-23
28-18
8-26
25-15
21-18
163.7Avg total
85.0Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.081.7163.7+0.367%
Season at home (2)93.586.5180.0+7.0100%
Season away (1)59.072.0131.0-13.00%
Last 10 (10)85.078.7163.7+6.380%
Last 5 (5)80.878.2159.0+2.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)73.082.2155.2-9.233%
vs Similar (8)82.479.5161.9+2.962%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)87.369.1156.4+18.281%
This opponent (Barreirense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 153.5Actual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
60.3%
Under 153.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 158.5 · main lineActual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
48.2%
@ 1.91-1.1pp
Under 158.5
51.8%
@ 1.83+1.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.88
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 163.5Actual: Over 163.5
Over 163.5
36.4%
Under 163.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Barreirense total 72.5Actual: Barreirense over 72.5
Over 72.5
57.5%
@ 1.43-3.5pp
Under 72.5
42.5%
@ 2.24+3.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.24
Barreirense total 76.5 · main lineActual: Barreirense over 76.5
Over 76.5
42.0%
@ 1.83-7.6pp
Under 76.5
58.0%
@ 1.83+7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.64
Barreirense total 80.5Actual: Barreirense over 80.5
Over 80.5
27.9%
Under 80.5
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maia total 78.5Actual: Maia over 78.5
Over 78.5
68.8%
@ 1.38+5.5pp
Under 78.5
31.2%
@ 2.38-5.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.38
Maia total 82.5 · main lineActual: Maia over 82.5
Over 82.5
53.6%
@ 1.93+4.0pp
Under 82.5
46.4%
@ 1.86-4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Under
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.71
Maia total 86.5Actual: Maia under 86.5
Over 86.5
37.9%
@ 2.40+1.4pp
Under 86.5
62.1%
@ 1.38-1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.38

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Barreirense +3.5Actual: Barreirense +3.5
BARR +3.5
30.5%
@ 2.30-8.0pp
MAIA -3.5
69.5%
@ 1.44+8.0pp
Best 5 market prices
BARR
1xBet
2.30
MAIA
1xBet
1.44
Spread Barreirense +6.5 · main lineActual: Barreirense +6.5
BARR +6.5
41.3%
@ 1.95-8.7pp
MAIA -6.5
58.7%
@ 1.96+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
BARR
Bet365
1.95
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.80
MAIA
SBO
1.96
BetVictor
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
Spread Barreirense +9.5Actual: Barreirense +9.5
BARR +9.5
52.4%
@ 1.48-7.3pp
MAIA -9.5
47.6%
@ 2.19+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
BARR
1xBet
1.48
MAIA
1xBet
2.19

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -5.4-5.4Q1: +7.1+7.1Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +0.5+0.5
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -5.4-5.4Q1: +7.1+7.1Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +3.0+3.0Q4: +0.5+0.5
BarreirenseMaia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BarreirenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Benfica Lisboa B
#12
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A23/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#14
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H29/03
Proliga
Lusitania
#6
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A05/04
Proliga
Santo Andre
#9
L
16-23
16
23
-7
A26/04
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#16
L
35-44
35
44
-9
H27/04
Proliga
Maia
#8
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H04/05
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#3
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H03/10
Proliga
Barcelos
#14
L
24-41
24
41
-17
A10/10
Proliga
Ginasio Olhanense
#12
W
51-41
51
41
+10
H17/10
Proliga
Galomar
#5
L
23-51
23
51
-28
A24/10
Proliga
74.7Avg total
34.0Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)36.039.575.5-3.533%37%
Last 30 at home (15)38.638.977.5-0.347%40%
Last 30 away (15)33.440.273.6-6.820%33%
Last 10 (10)34.040.774.7-6.730%30%
Last 5 (5)33.442.475.8-9.040%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)35.041.176.1-6.131%44%
vs Similar (11)36.537.473.9-0.836%27%
vs Weaker (3)39.339.378.7+0.033%33%
This opponent (Maia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MaiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illiabum
#7
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A21/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#8
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H28/03
Proliga
Ginasio
#8
W
49-34
49
34
+15
A29/03
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
W
49-46
49
46
+3
H04/04
Proliga
Portimonense
#6
W
38-26
38
26
+12
H18/04
Proliga
CD Povoa
#1
W
32-31
32
31
+1
H25/04
Proliga
Ginasio Olhanense
#11
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A01/05
Proliga
Ginasio Olhanense
#12
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H03/10
Proliga
Santo Andre
#4
D
31-31
31
31
+0
A17/10
Proliga
Lusitania
#6
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H24/10
Proliga
79.5Avg total
42.2Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 79
Last 30 (30)41.236.677.8+4.673%50%
Last 30 at home (16)41.937.179.1+4.875%56%
Last 30 away (14)40.436.076.4+4.471%43%
Last 10 (10)42.237.379.5+4.980%60%
Last 5 (5)40.438.679.0+1.860%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)34.240.574.7-6.333%50%
vs Similar (8)41.839.080.8+2.875%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)43.633.977.6+9.788%50%
This opponent (Barreirense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Maia win
BARR win
no forecast
@ 2.72
MAIA win
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Barreirense +3.5 · main lineActual: Maia -3.5
BARR +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MAIA -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 79 · main lineActual: Over 79
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Barreirense 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Barreirense over 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Maia 1st half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Maia over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half: BARR + total 78.5
BARR & over
no forecast
@ 5.00
BARR & under
no forecast
@ 5.00
1st half: Draw + total 78.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half: MAIA + total 78.5
MAIA & over
no forecast
@ 2.90
MAIA & under
no forecast
@ 2.90
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half Spread Barreirense +2.5Actual: Maia -2.5
BARR +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
MAIA -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Barreirense +4.5Actual: Maia -4.5
BARR +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
MAIA -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Barreirense (regulation)
BARR
no forecast
@ 2.84
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.00
MAIA
no forecast
@ 1.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
BARR win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
MAIA win + total 158.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BARR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MAIA leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Maia (regulation)75.9%1.35
1xBet
1.35		----+11.9ppLost
Maia win78.2%1.30
1xBet
1.34
WilliamHill
1.33
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
Betfair
1.30		+7.3ppLost
Overtime: no96.1%1.02
Betano
1.02		----+4.6ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Barreirensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Barreirense: 73.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.2 points a game
50%
30%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.117.6
46.2%
52.5%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.66.7
29.6%
30.6%20.1
🏀 Free throws26.218.0
68.7%
67.3%18.0
They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Maiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Maia: 84.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.2 points a game
50%
30%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.419.8
46.7%
52.5%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.98.8
35.3%
30.6%26.4
🏀 Free throws26.318.5
70.3%
67.3%18.5
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Barreirense
LWLLLWLLWW
Maia
WLWWWWWWWL
#13
League position
#10
-0.5
Net rating
+6.4
93.7
Offensive rating
90.0
94.2
Defensive rating
83.7
45.6%
Effective FG%
49.0%
50.5%
Opp. effective FG%
49.3%
19.2%
Turnover %
16.8%
0.43
Free-throw rate
0.39
29.6%
3-point %
35.3%
56.8%
Assist %
62.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence93.7 · 90.0Defence94.2 · 83.7Shooting45.6% · 49.0%3-point %29.6% · 35.3%Ball care19.2% · 16.8%Free throws0.43 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)40% · 80%
■ Barreirense   ■ Maia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Barreirense wins
5
Maia wins
DateGameScore
04/05/25Barreirense v Maia72-76
08/03/25Maia v Barreirense68-65
01/04/23Maia v Barreirense107-109 OT
04/03/23Barreirense v Maia78-91
19/03/21Barreirense v Maia102-97 OT
13/12/20Maia v Barreirense79-77 OT
29/12/19Barreirense v Maia107-79
05/10/19Maia v Barreirense93-70
Barreirenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26AGalomar65-92
17/10/26HGinasio Olhanense91-90
10/10/26ABarcelos79-81 OT
03/10/26HGalitos Aveiro63-71
04/05/25HMaia72-76
27/04/25HGalitos Aveiro76-70
26/04/25ASanto Andre51-58
05/04/25ALusitania82-94
29/03/25HGinasio83-78
23/03/25ABenfica Lisboa B84-68
Maialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HLusitania82-77
17/10/26ASanto Andre59-72
03/10/26HGinasio Olhanense105-96
01/05/26AGinasio Olhanense83-73
25/04/26HCD Povoa75-73
18/04/26HPortimonense73-63
04/04/26HCAB Madeira108-100 OT
29/03/26AGinasio109-81
28/03/26HGinasio87-80
21/03/26AIlliabum69-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Barreirense
Proliga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game74.577.072.0
Allowed / game83.580.586.5
Point differential-9.0-3.5-14.5
Avg total158.0157.5158.5
Over 158.550%50%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %25%0%50%
Maia
Proliga 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game82.093.559.0
Allowed / game81.786.572.0
Point differential+0.3+7.0-13.0
Avg total163.7180.0131.0
Over 158.567%100%0%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sangalhos54180%78.661.4+17.2
2 Galitos Aveiro54180%75.470.4+5.0
3 Santo Andre54180%79.074.2+4.8
4 Galomar43175%82.572.0+10.5
5 Maia32167%82.081.7+0.3
6 Sampaense53260%87.681.6+6.0
7 Lusitania53260%79.073.2+5.8
8 CB Queluz53260%71.071.0+0.0
9 Galitos Barreiro53260%72.072.2-0.2
10 Vasco Da Gama52340%82.886.0-3.2
11 Illiabum52340%70.074.6-4.6
12 Barcelos41325%67.075.8-8.8
13 Barreirense41325%74.583.5-9.0
14 Benfica Lisboa B41325%65.074.5-9.5
15 Ginasio Olhanense51420%80.491.2-10.8
16 Academica5050%79.286.0-6.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Barreirense2023232995
Maia2823112385
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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