PythiaBasketballBETA
NBB· Ginasio Panela de Pressao
Bauru will host Caxias do Sul on 20 November 2026 in the NBB, and the Pythia model names Bauru the clear favourite with an 82% chance of victory, reflecting their 3-4 season record and 76.7 points scored per game versus 77.7 allowed, while Caxias do Sul struggles at 0-7 with 64.7 points scored and 79.6 allowed. Bauru's overall season shows a 3-4 record, and they have managed only one win in their last five games, including a 98-78 win over Pato away but recent losses to Minas and Cruzeiro at home. Their home performance is 1-3 with 70.5 points per game and 75.5 allowed, and their last five home outings have yielded just one victory. Caxias do Sul, meanwhile, has gone 0-5 in their last five games, with losses to Pato, Brasilia, and Pinheiros, and their road record stands at 0-3 with 64.7 points scored and 84.0 allowed. The head-to-head history shows Bauru winning all ten meetings, most recently 74-73 on 19 January 2026. Pythia projects a final score of 81-70 for Bauru, a total of 151.5 points, and an 18% chance for Caxias do Sul to win; the model also gives a 3% probability that the game will go into overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 76.7 | 77.7 | 154.4 | -1.0 | 43% |
| Season at home (4) | 70.5 | 75.5 | 146.0 | -5.0 | 25% |
| Season away (3) | 85.0 | 80.7 | 165.7 | +4.3 | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.7 | 78.5 | 155.2 | -1.8 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.4 | 79.0 | 153.4 | -4.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 82.1 | 85.6 | 167.8 | -3.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (14) | 82.2 | 82.9 | 165.1 | -0.7 | 36% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 89.1 | 78.4 | 167.5 | +10.8 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 64.7 | 79.6 | 144.3 | -14.9 | 0% |
| Season at home (4) | 64.8 | 76.2 | 141.0 | -11.5 | 0% |
| Season away (3) | 64.7 | 84.0 | 148.7 | -19.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 65.9 | 76.9 | 142.8 | -11.0 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 65.2 | 81.4 | 146.6 | -16.2 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 68.1 | 77.5 | 145.6 | -9.5 | 16% |
| vs Similar (5) | 76.6 | 75.6 | 152.2 | +1.0 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 82.0 | 75.0 | 157.0 | +7.0 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 42.1 | 40.6 | 82.7 | +1.4 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 45.5 | 41.2 | 86.7 | +4.3 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 38.7 | 40.1 | 78.7 | -1.4 | 47% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.5 | 40.6 | 81.1 | -0.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 40.8 | 42.2 | 83.0 | -1.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (8) | 45.2 | 42.5 | 87.8 | +2.8 | 62% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 39.0 | 41.0 | 80.0 | -2.0 | 36% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (8) | 44.2 | 38.1 | 82.4 | +6.1 | 88% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.4 | 37.9 | 72.4 | -3.5 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 33.7 | 38.8 | 72.5 | -5.2 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 35.6 | 36.6 | 72.2 | -1.0 | 58% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 32.1 | 38.9 | 71.0 | -6.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.2 | 39.8 | 70.0 | -9.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 33.1 | 37.8 | 70.9 | -4.7 | 47% | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 34.0 | 38.8 | 72.8 | -4.8 | 20% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 39.0 | 37.5 | 76.5 | +1.5 | 50% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.1 | 20.4 | 49.8% | 40.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.5 | 7.3 | 31.6% | 21.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.2 | 11.5 | 71.3% | 11.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 29.8 | 14.0 | 49.8% | 28.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 30.4 | 10.4 | 31.6% | 31.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 15.4 | 11.1 | 71.3% | 11.1 |
Bauru
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 19/01/26 | Caxias do Sul v Bauru | 73-74 |
| 30/10/25 | Bauru v Caxias do Sul | 75-64 |
| 29/03/25 | Bauru v Caxias do Sul | 84-67 |
| 03/12/24 | Caxias do Sul v Bauru | 66-71 |
| 09/03/24 | Caxias do Sul v Bauru | 75-79 |
| 22/11/23 | Bauru v Caxias do Sul | 94-59 |
| 08/04/23 | Bauru v Caxias do Sul | 89-69 |
| 06/01/23 | Caxias do Sul v Bauru | 61-74 |
| 14/03/22 | Caxias do Sul v Bauru | 60-66 |
| 09/12/21 | Bauru v Caxias do Sul | 89-81 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/26 | A | Pato | 98-78 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Minas | 64-77 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Cruzeiro | 74-78 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Paulistano | 75-83 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Mogi | 61-79 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Sao Jose | 83-68 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Flamengo | 82-81 |
| 29/04/26 | A | Paulistano | 62-71 |
| 26/04/26 | H | Paulistano | 88-75 |
| 24/04/26 | H | Paulistano | 80-95 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLW | 43% |
| Home | WLLL | 25% |
| Away | WLW | 67% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 43% | 25% | 67% |
| Points / game | 76.7 | 70.5 | 85.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.7 | 75.5 | 80.7 |
| Point differential | -1.0 | -5.0 | +4.3 |
| Avg total | 154.4 | 146.0 | 165.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 25% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 0% (1) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 0% |
| Home | LLLL | 0% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 64.7 | 64.8 | 64.7 |
| Allowed / game | 79.6 | 76.2 | 84.0 |
| Point differential | -14.9 | -11.5 | -19.3 |
| Avg total | 144.3 | 141.0 | 148.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (2) | 0% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Minas | 8 | 8 | 0 | 100% | 85.1 | 65.4 | +19.8 |
| 2 |  Mogi | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 83.1 | 73.9 | +9.3 |
| 3 |  Pinheiros | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 85.2 | 73.1 | +12.1 |
| 4 |  Flamengo | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 80.9 | 73.4 | +7.4 |
| 5 |  Unifacisa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 79.4 | 75.1 | +4.3 |
| 6 |  Franca | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 78.9 | 71.6 | +7.2 |
| 7 |  Uniao Corinthians | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 72.3 | 74.7 | -2.4 |
| 8 |  Brasilia | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 80.6 | 79.8 | +0.9 |
| 9 |  Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 76.2 | 78.8 | -2.7 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.0 | 79.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Bauru | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.7 | 77.7 | -1.0 |
| 12 |  Sao Jose | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.3 | 81.7 | -1.4 |
| 13 |  Paulistano | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 69.6 | 73.9 | -4.3 |
| 14 |  Botafogo | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 76.7 | 83.0 | -6.3 |
| 15 |  Pato | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 72.6 | 81.5 | -8.9 |
| 16 |  Osasco | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 77.8 | 86.8 | -9.0 |
| 17 |  Cearense | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 65.6 | 83.7 | -18.1 |
| 18 | Caxias do Sul | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 64.7 | 79.6 | -14.9 |
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