Pato will face Bauru on 9 November 2026 in the NBB, with the model favouring Bauru at 63% versus Pato's 37%, a game the forecast expects to be tightly contested. Pato has gone 1-4 this season, averaging 72.4 points and conceding 82.0, while Bauru sits 2-4, scoring 73.2 and allowing 77.7; both teams have struggled in their last five games, each winning only one. At home Pato is 1-2, 76.3 points for, 82.7 against, and Bauru is 1-1 on the road, 78.5 points for, 82.0 against. The last five results for Pato include losses to Flamengo 66-80, Cruzeiro 68-76, and Minas 65-86, while Bauru fell 64-77 to Minas, 74-78 to Cruzeiro, and 75-83 to Paulistano. In their 10 previous meetings Bauru has won nine, most recently 94-70 on 24 March 2026. The model projects a 75-78 scoreline, a total of 153.2 points, and a 5.5-point spread favouring Bauru, with a 55% chance the home side covers; the over on the total has a modest probability, and a 5% chance of overtime. The final game will hinge on whether Pato can reverse its recent slump and keep the margin within the spread.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 72.4 | 82.0 | 154.4 | -9.6 | 20% |
| Season at home (3) | 76.3 | 82.7 | 159.0 | -6.3 | 33% |
| Season away (2) | 66.5 | 81.0 | 147.5 | -14.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.0 | 84.5 | 153.5 | -15.5 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.4 | 82.0 | 154.4 | -9.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (22) | 70.3 | 82.8 | 153.1 | -12.5 | 9% |
| vs Similar (8) | 79.6 | 78.4 | 158.0 | +1.2 | 38% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 73.2 | 77.7 | 150.8 | -4.5 | 33% |
| Season at home (4) | 70.5 | 75.5 | 146.0 | -5.0 | 25% |
| Season away (2) | 78.5 | 82.0 | 160.5 | -3.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.6 | 78.7 | 153.3 | -4.1 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 71.4 | 77.0 | 148.4 | -5.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 80.3 | 84.0 | 164.3 | -3.7 | 44% |
| vs Similar (14) | 82.2 | 82.9 | 165.1 | -0.7 | 36% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 87.9 | 78.4 | 166.3 | +9.4 | 86% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.2 | 40.2 | 76.3 | -4.0 | 33% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 36.6 | 37.9 | 74.5 | -1.4 | 35% | 59% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.6 | 43.1 | 78.7 | -7.5 | 31% | 46% |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.6 | 41.9 | 75.5 | -8.3 | 20% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.0 | 41.4 | 75.4 | -7.4 | 0% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (22) | 34.2 | 41.5 | 75.8 | -7.3 | 14% | 55% |
| vs Similar (8) | 41.5 | 36.4 | 77.9 | +5.1 | 88% | 50% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.3 | 40.4 | 81.7 | +0.8 | 53% | 67% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 44.5 | 40.9 | 85.4 | +3.6 | 62% | 69% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.6 | 39.9 | 77.5 | -2.4 | 43% | 64% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.2 | 40.1 | 77.3 | -2.9 | 30% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 42.2 | 79.0 | -5.4 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 43.6 | 41.8 | 85.3 | +1.8 | 56% | 67% |
| vs Similar (14) | 39.0 | 41.0 | 80.0 | -2.0 | 36% | 64% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 42.9 | 37.6 | 80.4 | +5.3 | 86% | 71% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pato +15.5 | 84.7% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Lost |
| Pato +13 | 79.8% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Lost |
| Pato +11 | 74.4% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Lost |
| Pato +13.5 | 80.3% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Lost |
| Pato +12 | 77.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Lost |
| Pato +10 | 71.4% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Lost |
| Pato +11.5 | 75.2% | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Lost |
| Pato +20.5 | 92.4% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Won |
| Pato +12.5 | 77.9% | 1.30 | 1.33 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 90.5 | 88.0% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +6.6pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 89.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 86.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 88.5 | 83.7% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 92.5 | 91.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +5.4pp | Lost |
| Pato +10.5 | 72.3% | 1.36 | 1.43 | 1.37 | 1.28 | - | - | +5.4pp | Lost |
| Bauru +19.5 | 97.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +5.0pp | Won |
| Bauru under 84.5 | 72.3% | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +4.5pp | Lost |
| Bauru +14.5 | 93.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +4.4pp | Won |
| Pato over 68.5 | 72.3% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| Pato under 94.5 | 96.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| Pato under 93.5 | 96.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Pato under 91.5 | 94.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| Pato over 67.5 | 75.5% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 94.9% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | - |
| Bauru over 62.5 | 94.1% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Pato over 65.5 | 81.3% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| Under 178.5 | 93.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Bauru over 64.5 | 91.4% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Pato under 89.5 | 92.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Over 128.5 | 93.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Won |
| Bauru +9.5 | 87.2% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Under 168.5 | 82.4% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +1.9pp | Lost |
| Under 173.5 | 88.8% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +1.7pp | Lost |
| Pato under 87.5 | 88.9% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| Under 163.5 | 73.8% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Lost |
| Pato under 84.5 | 82.8% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Bauru over 66.5 | 87.9% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Bauru over 68.5 | 83.6% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Over 133.5 | 88.3% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +0.8pp | Won |
| Pato under 83.5 | 80.3% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Pato under 85.5 | 85.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +0.6pp | Won |
| Over 138.5 | 81.1% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +0.6pp | Won |
| Bauru over 69.5 | 81.0% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Bauru over 70.5 | 78.3% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Bauru over 72.5 | 72.1% | 1.25 | 1.27 | 1.24 | - | - | - | +0.4pp | Won |
| Pato under 81.5 | 74.6% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | -0.1pp | Won |
| Bauru +3.5 | 72.4% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | -0.6pp | Won |
| Bauru +4.5 | 75.4% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | -0.7pp | Won |
| Over 143.5 | 71.7% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | -1.1pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 33.0 | 15.6 | 49.8% | 31.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 29.6 | 7.6 | 31.6% | 22.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 11.3 | 7.1 | 71.3% | 7.1 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.1 | 20.4 | 49.8% | 40.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.5 | 7.3 | 31.6% | 21.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.2 | 11.5 | 71.3% | 11.5 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 | Bauru v Pato | 94-70 |
| 15/12/25 | Pato v Bauru | 61-69 |
| 05/02/25 | Pato v Bauru | 91-94 |
| 13/12/24 | Bauru v Pato | 97-91 |
| 27/04/24 | Bauru v Pato | 71-62 |
| 21/04/24 | Pato v Bauru | 74-93 |
| 15/02/24 | Bauru v Pato | 89-79 |
| 14/11/23 | Pato v Bauru | 73-70 |
| 11/03/23 | Bauru v Pato | 74-55 |
| 19/12/22 | Pato v Bauru | 85-96 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Flamengo | 66-80 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Cruzeiro | 68-76 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Minas | 65-86 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Botafogo | 89-88 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Paulistano | 74-80 |
| 18/04/26 | A | Paulistano | 71-92 |
| 16/04/26 | A | Pinheiros | 55-88 |
| 11/04/26 | A | Osasco | 68-77 |
| 09/04/26 | A | Franca | 64-100 |
| 06/04/26 | H | Rio Claro | 70-78 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/26 | H | Minas | 64-77 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Cruzeiro | 74-78 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Paulistano | 75-83 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Mogi | 61-79 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Sao Jose | 83-68 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Flamengo | 82-81 |
| 29/04/26 | A | Paulistano | 62-71 |
| 26/04/26 | H | Paulistano | 88-75 |
| 24/04/26 | H | Paulistano | 80-95 |
| 21/04/26 | A | Paulistano | 77-80 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLLL | 20% |
| Home | LWL | 33% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.4 | 76.3 | 66.5 |
| Allowed / game | 82.0 | 82.7 | 81.0 |
| Point differential | -9.6 | -6.3 | -14.5 |
| Avg total | 154.4 | 159.0 | 147.5 |
| Over 152.75 | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLLL | 33% |
| Home | WLLL | 25% |
| Away | WL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 25% | 50% |
| Points / game | 73.2 | 70.5 | 78.5 |
| Allowed / game | 77.7 | 75.5 | 82.0 |
| Point differential | -4.5 | -5.0 | -3.5 |
| Avg total | 150.8 | 146.0 | 160.5 |
| Over 152.75 | 33% | 0% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 17% | 25% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 0% (1) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 67.2 | +18.8 | |
| 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 86.8 | 70.2 | +16.7 | |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 82.2 | 71.7 | +10.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 83.2 | 73.0 | +10.2 | |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 80.8 | 74.4 | +6.4 | |
| 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 83.4 | 81.1 | +2.3 | |
| 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 77.3 | 73.3 | +4.0 | |
| 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 76.2 | 78.8 | -2.7 | |
| 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 70.3 | 73.0 | -2.7 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 80.0 | 83.0 | -3.0 | |
| 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.8 | 80.0 | -6.2 | |
| 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 80.5 | 84.5 | -4.0 | |
| 13 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 73.2 | 77.7 | -4.5 | |
| 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 80.5 | 80.0 | +0.5 | |
| 15 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 79.5 | 86.0 | -6.5 | |
| 16 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 72.4 | 82.0 | -9.6 | |
| 17 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 65.6 | 86.8 | -21.2 | |
| 18 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 62.7 | 79.7 | -17.0 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 78 | |
| 28 | 26 | 19 | 25 | 98 |
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