The NBB clash on 5 November 2026 pits Bauru against Minas, with Minas the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 75% to win, reflecting their flawless 5-0 season record, 87.8 points scored per game and only 67.8 allowed, the best in the league. Bauru, meanwhile, sits 10th with a 2-3 record, averaging 75.0 points and conceding 77.8, and has struggled at home, going 1-2 on the floor with 72.7 points scored and 75.0 allowed; their last five games were 2-3, including losses to Cruzeiro 74-78, Paulistano 75-83 and Mogi 61-79. Minas has dominated on the road, 3-0 with 84.3 points scored and 71.0 allowed, and their last five were 5-0, highlighted by a 100-61 win over Brasilia and a 87-76 victory over Franca. The teams have met ten times, Minas winning eight, the last encounter ending 105-90 for Bauru in February. Pythia projects a 77-85 score, a total of 162.5, and a 49% chance that Minas will cover the 7.5-point spread; the game carries a 4% overtime probability, with Bauru's last home game ending 74-78.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 75.0 | 77.8 | 152.8 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Season at home (3) | 72.7 | 75.0 | 147.7 | -2.3 | 33% |
| Season away (2) | 78.5 | 82.0 | 160.5 | -3.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.7 | 80.4 | 155.1 | -5.7 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.0 | 77.8 | 152.8 | -2.8 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 82.4 | 84.9 | 167.2 | -2.5 | 50% |
| vs Similar (14) | 82.2 | 82.9 | 165.1 | -0.7 | 36% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 87.4 | 77.1 | 164.5 | +10.2 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 87.8 | 67.8 | 155.6 | +20.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.0 | 63.0 | 156.0 | +30.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 84.3 | 71.0 | 155.3 | +13.3 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 90.7 | 81.8 | 172.5 | +8.9 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.8 | 67.8 | 155.6 | +20.0 | 100% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 93.2 | 100.5 | 193.8 | -7.2 | 25% |
| vs Similar (8) | 89.8 | 94.8 | 184.5 | -5.0 | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 91.8 | 77.7 | 169.4 | +14.1 | 89% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.7 | 40.4 | 82.1 | +1.3 | 57% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 45.3 | 40.9 | 86.2 | +4.4 | 69% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 37.6 | 39.9 | 77.5 | -2.4 | 43% | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.3 | 41.0 | 78.3 | -3.7 | 30% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 38.2 | 41.6 | 79.8 | -3.4 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (8) | 44.5 | 42.1 | 86.6 | +2.4 | 62% | 62% |
| vs Similar (14) | 39.0 | 41.0 | 80.0 | -2.0 | 36% | 64% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 43.6 | 37.8 | 81.4 | +5.9 | 88% | 50% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 80.25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 46.5 | 43.6 | 90.1 | +2.8 | 50% | 80% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 46.6 | 42.1 | 88.6 | +4.5 | 57% | 71% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 46.4 | 45.0 | 91.4 | +1.4 | 44% | 88% |
| Last 10 (10) | 44.5 | 40.9 | 85.4 | +3.6 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.6 | 34.8 | 77.4 | +7.8 | 80% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 44.0 | 52.2 | 96.2 | -8.2 | 0% | 100% |
| vs Similar (8) | 46.8 | 49.5 | 96.2 | -2.8 | 12% | 100% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (18) | 46.9 | 39.1 | 86.0 | +7.8 | 78% | 67% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 153 | 71.8% | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | - | +12.1pp | Lost |
| Over 152 | 73.9% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +11.4pp | Lost |
| Over 151 | 75.9% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +11.4pp | Lost |
| Over 153.5 | 70.4% | 1.54 | 1.57 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +10.7pp | Lost |
| Over 150.5 | 76.4% | 1.41 | 1.41 | - | - | - | - | +10.7pp | Lost |
| Over 152.5 | 72.4% | 1.50 | 1.52 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +10.5pp | Lost |
| Over 151.5 | 74.5% | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.42 | - | - | - | +10.3pp | Lost |
| Over 148.5 | 80.0% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +10.0pp | Lost |
| Minas over 70.5 | 92.4% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +9.4pp | Won |
| Minas +2 | 79.5% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +9.2pp | Won |
| Minas over 78.5 | 74.3% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Lost |
| Minas over 79.5 | 71.0% | 1.44 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.42 | - | - | +8.8pp | Lost |
| Over 143.5 | 87.5% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Lost |
| Minas +4.5 | 84.5% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Won |
| Minas over 68.5 | 94.8% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +8.2pp | Won |
| Minas over 66.5 | 96.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +7.9pp | Won |
| Minas over 77.5 | 77.4% | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +7.9pp | Lost |
| Minas over 72.5 | 89.3% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Minas +9.5 | 92.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Minas +2.5 | 80.1% | 1.27 | 1.31 | 1.24 | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Minas -1 | 74.4% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Won |
| Minas over 64.5 | 97.8% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +7.4pp | Won |
| Minas +14.5 | 96.6% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Won |
| Minas over 62.5 | 98.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Minas -2 | 71.6% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Bauru over 71.5 | 71.4% | 1.36 | 1.42 | 1.38 | 1.27 | - | - | +7.0pp | Lost |
| Minas over 73.5 | 87.4% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Won |
| Over 138.5 | 92.8% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| Minas over 75.5 | 82.8% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| Minas +13.5 | 96.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +6.6pp | Won |
| Over 133.5 | 96.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Minas over 67.5 | 95.8% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +6.4pp | Won |
| Minas over 74.5 | 85.2% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +6.4pp | Won |
| Minas +19.5 | 98.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Won |
| Minas +8.5 | 91.3% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Won |
| Minas +1 | 76.6% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +6.2pp | Won |
| Minas over 65.5 | 97.2% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Minas +3.5 | 82.2% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Minas over 63.5 | 98.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Minas +18.5 | 98.2% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Won |
| Minas over 71.5 | 91.0% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +5.9pp | Won |
| Minas over 69.5 | 93.7% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +5.8pp | Won |
| Minas -1.5 | 72.7% | 1.38 | 1.41 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +5.6pp | Won |
| Bauru under 85.5 | 78.4% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +5.6pp | Won |
| Bauru under 83.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Bauru under 89.5 | 87.6% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | +5.3pp | Won |
| Bauru under 95.5 | 95.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Won |
| Bauru under 91.5 | 90.9% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Minas +1.5 | 77.1% | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Bauru under 93.5 | 93.5% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| Bauru over 70.5 | 74.7% | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +4.7pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 94.5 | 94.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 95.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.2pp | - |
| Bauru under 87.5 | 83.4% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Over 136.5 | 94.3% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| Bauru over 69.5 | 77.8% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 92.5 | 92.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Under 187.5 | 93.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| Over 137.5 | 93.6% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.4pp | Won |
| Bauru under 88.5 | 85.6% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Bauru under 86.5 | 81.0% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Bauru under 90.5 | 89.4% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +3.3pp | Won |
| Bauru +21.5 | 88.6% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Minas (regulation) | 72.6% | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | +3.1pp | Won |
| Over 146.5 | 83.3% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +2.8pp | Lost |
| Bauru under 84.5 | 75.6% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +2.8pp | Won |
| Over 141.5 | 89.9% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Lost |
| Under 186.5 | 92.4% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Bauru over 67.5 | 83.2% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Lost |
| Bauru over 66.5 | 85.6% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Lost |
| Under 182.5 | 88.6% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Won |
| Under 177.5 | 82.0% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +2.5pp | Won |
| Bauru +16.5 | 78.4% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +2.2pp | Won |
| Bauru over 68.5 | 80.6% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +1.7pp | Lost |
| Over 142.5 | 88.7% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +1.6pp | Lost |
| Bauru +20.5 | 87.0% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| Under 172.5 | 73.2% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Over 147.5 | 81.7% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +1.2pp | Lost |
| Bauru +14.5 | 73.0% | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +1.2pp | Won |
| Minas win | 75.0% | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.28 | +1.1pp | Won |
| Under 176.5 | 80.4% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +0.9pp | Won |
| Bauru +15.5 | 75.8% | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +0.8pp | Won |
| Under 181.5 | 87.4% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +0.8pp | Won |
| Bauru +14 | 72.2% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Minas under 91.5 | 73.8% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +0.5pp | Won |
| Under 171.5 | 71.2% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | -0.7pp | Won |
| Under 183.5 | 89.6% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -0.8pp | Won |
| Under 178.5 | 83.5% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -4.5pp | Won |
| Under 173.5 | 75.1% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | -7.2pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.1 | 20.4 | 49.9% | 40.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.5 | 7.3 | 31.7% | 21.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 17.2 | 11.5 | 71.2% | 11.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 35.3 | 20.9 | 49.9% | 41.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 29.2 | 10.1 | 31.7% | 30.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 23.3 | 17.4 | 71.2% | 17.4 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10/02/26 | Bauru v Minas | 105-90 |
| 23/11/25 | Minas v Bauru | 94-88 |
| 28/05/25 | Minas v Bauru | 70-65 |
| 26/05/25 | Minas v Bauru | 73-69 |
| 23/05/25 | Bauru v Minas | 59-74 |
| 27/12/24 | Minas v Bauru | 83-73 |
| 17/10/24 | Bauru v Minas | 81-82 OT |
| 02/03/24 | Bauru v Minas | 86-84 OT |
| 16/11/23 | Minas v Bauru | 99-80 |
| 10/01/23 | Minas v Bauru | 63-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | H | Cruzeiro | 74-78 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Paulistano | 75-83 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Mogi | 61-79 |
| 21/10/26 | H | Sao Jose | 83-68 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Flamengo | 82-81 |
| 29/04/26 | A | Paulistano | 62-71 |
| 26/04/26 | H | Paulistano | 88-75 |
| 24/04/26 | H | Paulistano | 80-95 |
| 21/04/26 | A | Paulistano | 77-80 |
| 18/04/26 | A | Brasilia | 65-94 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/26 | A | Franca | 87-76 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Brasilia | 100-61 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Pato | 86-65 |
| 22/10/26 | A | Uniao Corinthians | 88-71 |
| 20/10/26 | A | Caxias do Sul | 78-66 |
| 12/05/26 | H | Corinthians Paulista | 81-92 |
| 09/05/26 | A | Corinthians Paulista | 97-103 |
| 07/05/26 | A | Corinthians Paulista | 97-91 |
| 04/05/26 | H | Corinthians Paulista | 90-100 |
| 29/04/26 | H | Cruzeiro | 103-93 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLLL | 40% |
| Home | WLL | 33% |
| Away | WL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Points / game | 75.0 | 72.7 | 78.5 |
| Allowed / game | 77.8 | 75.0 | 82.0 |
| Point differential | -2.8 | -2.3 | -3.5 |
| Avg total | 152.8 | 147.7 | 160.5 |
| Over 158.75 | 20% | 0% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 0% (1) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWWW | 100% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | WWW | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 87.8 | 93.0 | 84.3 |
| Allowed / game | 67.8 | 63.0 | 71.0 |
| Point differential | +20.0 | +30.0 | +13.3 |
| Avg total | 155.6 | 156.0 | 155.3 |
| Over 158.75 | 60% | 50% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 87.8 | 67.8 | +20.0 | |
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 83.6 | 66.8 | +16.8 | |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 83.0 | 71.8 | +11.2 | |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 82.6 | 72.8 | +9.8 | |
| 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 80.8 | 74.4 | +6.4 | |
| 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 76.0 | 75.0 | +1.0 | |
| 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 72.8 | 74.6 | -1.8 | |
| 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 84.7 | 85.5 | -0.8 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.2 | 72.6 | +0.6 | |
| 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.0 | 77.8 | -2.8 | |
| 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 80.0 | 83.0 | -3.0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 73.8 | 80.0 | -6.2 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 81.0 | 78.7 | +2.3 | |
| 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 79.0 | 84.7 | -5.7 | |
| 15 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.5 | 80.8 | -4.2 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 74.0 | 82.5 | -8.5 | |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 64.2 | 80.4 | -16.2 | |
| 18 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 65.8 | 94.0 | -28.2 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 20 | 12 | 16 | 64 | |
| 18 | 21 | 17 | 21 | 77 |
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