PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Baylor hosts Jackson State on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Baylor the clear favourite with a 99% chance of victory, reflecting their undefeated 3-0 record, 95.3 points per game and only 59.7 allowed, and a league position of 9, while Jackson State sits 335th with a 1-3 record, 66.5 points per game and 85.8 allowed. Baylor's three home wins include a 90-61 triumph over Yale, a 109-53 rout of Arkansas-Pine Bluff and a 87-65 win over Northwestern St., and their last five games show four wins and one loss; Jackson State's road record is 1-3, with recent results of a 80-84 loss to Southern Miss, a 57-98 defeat to Mississippi St. and a 87-85 win over Tulane. The teams have met once before, with Baylor winning 83-57 on 30 December 2019. Pythia projects a 94-65 score, 159.2 total points, a 99% probability that Baylor covers the line and a 1% chance of a Jackson State win, while the overtime probability is 0%. The game will feature Baylor's dominant offense against Jackson State's defensive struggles.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 95.3 | 59.7 | 155.0 | +35.7 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 95.3 | 59.7 | 155.0 | +35.7 | 100% |
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 84.4 | 74.5 | 158.9 | +9.9 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 93.2 | 67.4 | 160.6 | +25.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 66.5 | 77.5 | 144.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (11) | 80.7 | 78.0 | 158.7 | +2.7 | 45% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 93.2 | 71.1 | 164.2 | +22.1 | 77% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 66.5 | 85.8 | 152.2 | -19.2 | 25% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (4) | 66.5 | 85.8 | 152.2 | -19.2 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 69.3 | 80.0 | 149.3 | -10.7 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 65.2 | 82.6 | 147.8 | -17.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 70.5 | 82.3 | 152.8 | -11.9 | 35% |
| vs Similar (2) | 77.0 | 84.5 | 161.5 | -7.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (2) | 91.0 | 79.0 | 170.0 | +12.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.1 | 35.0 | 76.0 | +6.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 43.4 | 33.4 | 76.8 | +10.1 | 61% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 37.5 | 37.3 | 74.8 | +0.2 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.5 | 34.4 | 77.9 | +9.1 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 47.4 | 30.4 | 77.8 | +17.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 32.2 | 33.0 | 65.2 | -0.8 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 38.5 | 37.4 | 75.9 | +1.2 | 45% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 47.3 | 33.8 | 81.2 | +13.5 | 69% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.4 | 38.3 | 72.7 | -3.9 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 38.1 | 36.5 | 74.6 | +1.6 | 58% | - |
| Last 30 away (18) | 31.9 | 39.5 | 71.4 | -7.6 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.0 | 36.8 | 69.8 | -3.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.8 | 39.2 | 71.0 | -7.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (26) | 33.2 | 38.4 | 71.6 | -5.2 | 42% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 43.5 | 35.5 | 79.0 | +8.0 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (2) | 40.5 | 39.5 | 80.0 | +1.0 | 50% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | H | Yale | 90-61 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 109-53 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Northwestern St. | 87-65 |
| 10/03/26 | A | Arizona State | 79-83 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Utah Utes | 101-75 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Houston | 64-77 |
| 01/03/26 | A | UCF Knights | 87-86 |
| 25/02/26 | H | Arizona | 80-87 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Arizona State | 73-68 |
| 18/02/26 | A | Kansas State | 74-90 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Southern Miss | 80-84 OT |
| 10/11/26 | A | Mississippi St. | 57-98 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Tulane | 87-85 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Texas Tech | 42-76 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Florida A&M | 60-70 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Grambling St. | 68-65 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Miss. Valley St. | 85-77 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 81-78 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Texas Southern | 57-82 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Prairie View A&M | 76-85 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 3 | - |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | - |
| Points / game | 95.3 | 95.3 | - |
| Allowed / game | 59.7 | 59.7 | - |
| Point differential | +35.7 | +35.7 | - |
| Avg total | 155.0 | 155.0 | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 100% | 100% | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLL | 25% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LWLL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | - | 4 |
| Win % | 25% | - | 25% |
| Points / game | 66.5 | - | 66.5 |
| Allowed / game | 85.8 | - | 85.8 |
| Point differential | -19.2 | - | -19.2 |
| Avg total | 152.2 | - | 152.2 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 25% | - | 25% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baylor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 95.3 | 59.7 | +35.7 |
| 2 |  West Virginia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 85.7 | 53.3 | +32.3 |
| 3 |  Kansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 59.7 | +31.3 |
| 4 |  TCU | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 67.2 | +27.8 |
| 5 |  Arizona State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.5 | 63.2 | +22.2 |
| 6 |  Brigham Young | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 96.5 | 75.8 | +20.8 |
| 7 |  Texas Tech | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 78.7 | 59.3 | +19.3 |
| 8 |  Utah Utes | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 72.7 | 61.3 | +11.3 |
| 9 |  UCF Knights | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 10 |  Arizona | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 87.2 | 74.0 | +13.2 |
| 11 |  Houston | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 84.7 | 62.3 | +22.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 92.7 | 72.0 | +20.7 |
| 13 |  Iowa State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 61.3 | +19.7 |
| 14 |  Cincinnati | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 73.7 | 60.0 | +13.7 |
| 15 |  Colorado | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.0 | 70.3 | +10.7 |
| 16 |  Kansas State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 83.3 | 76.0 | +7.3 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alabama A&M Bulldogs | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 81.2 | 67.8 | +13.5 |
| 2 |  Grambling St. | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.5 | 90.0 | -14.5 |
| 3 |  Prairie View A&M | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 82.0 | -6.6 |
| 4 |  Alabama State | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 69.7 | 78.7 | -9.0 |
| 5 |  Florida A&M | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 80.8 | -3.0 |
| 6 |  Texas Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.5 | 93.0 | -16.5 |
| 7 | Jackson State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.5 | 85.8 | -19.2 |
| 8 |  Bethune-Cookman | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 71.0 | 85.5 | -14.5 |
| 9 |  Miss. Valley St. | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 63.0 | 85.5 | -22.5 |
| 10 |  Alcorn State | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 66.8 | 90.0 | -23.2 |
| 11 |  Southern Univ. | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.4 | 88.2 | -27.8 |
| 12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 52.8 | 98.8 | -46.0 |
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