Baylor faces Northwestern St. in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the model favouring the Bears at 87% to win, a reflection of their dominant 3-0 head-to-head record and a projected 80-68 score that places them comfortably above the 148.5 total line, giving a 49% chance of covering the spread and a 49% over probability. Baylor's season record of 3-0, averaging 80 points scored and 68 allowed per game, sits at the top of the standings, while Northwestern St. trails 2-3, averaging 68 points scored and 80 allowed. Baylor's last five games include two wins and three losses, notably a 101-75 home victory over Utah Utes, whereas Northwestern St. has also gone 2-3, with losses to Nicholls State, UTRGV and Texas A&M-CC. The Bears have never lost to the Cardinals, winning all three meetings, the most recent being a 91-40 triumph on 2 December 2023. With a 3% overtime probability, the game is expected to finish in regulation, and the projected total of 148.1 points sits just below the 148.5 line, hinting at a tightly contested matchup that could swing on a single play.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Baylor winWon
86.6%fair 1.15
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge-8.2pp
Northwestern St. winLost
13.4%fair 7.47
Best odds100.00
Implied5.2%
Edge+8.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Baylor total 89.5 · main lineActual: Baylor under 89.5
Over 89.5
17.9%
@ 1.85-32.8pp
Under 89.5
82.1%
@ 2.38+32.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.55
Under
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.30
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Baylor total 93.5Actual: Baylor under 93.5
Over 93.5
no forecast
@ 2.77
Under 93.5
no forecast
@ 1.71
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.77
Pinnacle
2.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.34
Northwestern St. total 55Actual: Northwestern St. over 55
Over 55
90.2%
Under 55
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Northwestern St. total 59 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. over 59
Over 59
81.2%
@ 1.85+30.8pp
Under 59
18.8%
@ 1.88-30.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Northwestern St. total 63Actual: Northwestern St. over 63
Over 63
68.2%
Under 63
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Baylor -32.5Actual: Northwestern St. +32.5
BAYL -32.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
NORT +32.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
1.99
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.83
NORT
Bet365
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
Betano
1.50
Spread Baylor -29.5 · main lineActual: Northwestern St. +29.5
BAYL -29.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
NORT +29.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Be
1.71
Bet365
1.66
NORT
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Baylor -26.5Actual: Northwestern St. +26.5
BAYL -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
NORT +26.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
Best 5 market prices
BAYL
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.45
NORT
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.22
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
BaylorNorthwestern St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Northwestern St. +24
84.8%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+57.1pp
Won
Northwestern St. +25
86.7%
3.05
Bet365
3.05
-
-
-
-
+56.2pp
Won
Northwestern St. +22.5
80.8%
3.75
Bet365
4.40
Betano
3.10
-
-
-
+55.4pp
Won
Northwestern St. +23.5
83.1%
3.15
Bet365
3.45
Betano
2.85
-
-
-
+53.5pp
Won
Northwestern St. +22
80.4%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+53.2pp
Push
Northwestern St. +24.5
85.1%
2.88
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.62
-
-
-
+52.8pp
Won
Northwestern St. +23
82.7%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+52.7pp
Won
Northwestern St. +21.5
78.4%
3.47
Bet365
3.55
Betano
3.40
-
-
-
+51.7pp
Lost
Northwestern St. +20.5
75.8%
3.88
Bet365
4.40
Betano
3.35
-
-
-
+51.3pp
Lost
Baylor under 91.5
86.9%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
+38.6pp
Won
Baylor under 92
88.6%
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
-
+37.8pp
Won
Baylor under 87.5
76.4%
2.41
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.07
-
-
-
+37.2pp
Won
Baylor under 88.5
79.3%
2.20
1xBet
2.50
Betano
1.90
-
-
-
+36.3pp
Won
Baylor under 90.5
84.6%
1.86
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
-
+34.6pp
Won
Baylor under 86.5
73.1%
2.59
1xBet
3.20
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
-
-
+34.4pp
Lost
Baylor under 90
84.2%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
-
+33.9pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 61.5
72.8%
2.33
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.15
-
-
-
+32.9pp
Won
Baylor under 89.5
82.1%
2.02
1xBet
2.38
Bet365
2.30
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+32.8pp
Won
Baylor under 89
81.6%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+31.9pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 60.5
76.0%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.07
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.86
+31.1pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 59
81.2%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+30.8pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 59.5
79.0%
1.85
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.80
+30.6pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 58.5
81.8%
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.84
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.70
-
+29.9pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 60
78.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 55.5
88.6%
1.37
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.31
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 56.5
86.6%
1.43
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Northwestern St. over 57.5
84.3%
1.51
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
81.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Under 172.5
93.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 167.5
88.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 127.5
89.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Over 132.5
83.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Baylor (regulation)
84.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Baylor over 69.5
86.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Baylor win
86.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Baylor over 70.5
84.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Over 137.5
74.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Baylor over 72.5
78.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.1pp
Won
Northwestern St. under 75.5
78.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Northwestern St. under 74.5
75.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.5pp
Won
Baylor over 73.5
75.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.6pp
Won
Northwestern St. under 73.5
71.9%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-18.6pp
Won
Baylor over 74.5
72.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-18.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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