Bellarmine hosts Northern Illinois on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Bellarmine the favourite with a 77% chance of winning, a projection of 82-73 and a 77% probability that the home team covers the -1.0 line; the model also gives a 61% chance of the over on the 150.5 total. Bellarmine is 1-3 for the season, scoring 72.0 points per game and allowing 86.8, while Northern Illinois is 2-2, averaging 81.2 points and conceding 75.5; Bellarmine's sole home game was a 99-82 win, and their last five games include one win and four losses, with a recent 99-82 victory over Franklin and defeats to Miami (Ohio) and Indiana; Northern Illinois' last five include two wins and three losses, with recent wins over Clarke and Dayton and a loss to Tulsa. The teams have met once before, though the record of that meeting is not listed. The projected total of 155.1 points falls just above the 150.5 line, and the 4% overtime probability suggests a tight contest. Bellarmine's recent home success and the model's high confidence point to a likely edge for the Cardinals.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 72.0 | 86.8 | 158.8 | -14.8 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 99.0 | 82.0 | 181.0 | +17.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 63.0 | 88.3 | 151.3 | -25.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.6 | 85.2 | 163.8 | -6.6 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.2 | 86.6 | 158.8 | -14.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 75.0 | 85.8 | 160.8 | -10.8 | 15% |
| vs Similar (11) | 79.1 | 78.6 | 157.7 | +0.5 | 64% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 89.2 | 80.6 | 169.8 | +8.6 | 40% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.2 | 75.5 | 156.8 | +5.8 | 50% |
| Season at home (1) | 82.0 | 43.0 | 125.0 | +39.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 81.0 | 86.3 | 167.3 | -5.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.6 | 80.0 | 150.6 | -9.4 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.0 | 79.2 | 155.2 | -3.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (23) | 63.6 | 79.9 | 143.5 | -16.3 | 13% |
| vs Similar (3) | 78.7 | 66.0 | 144.7 | +12.7 | 100% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 93.3 | 76.3 | 169.7 | +17.0 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.0 | 40.5 | 76.5 | -4.5 | 40% | 67% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.4 | 36.3 | 75.7 | +3.1 | 67% | 67% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 32.6 | 44.6 | 77.2 | -12.0 | 13% | 67% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 40.4 | 76.1 | -4.7 | 30% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.6 | 40.6 | 73.2 | -8.0 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (13) | 32.8 | 43.8 | 76.7 | -11.0 | 23% | 69% |
| vs Similar (11) | 36.1 | 39.8 | 75.9 | -3.7 | 45% | 64% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 40.2 | 36.2 | 76.4 | +4.0 | 60% | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.9 | 38.3 | 70.3 | -6.4 | 23% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 32.0 | 37.5 | 69.5 | -5.5 | 33% | 33% |
| Last 30 away (18) | 31.9 | 38.9 | 70.8 | -7.0 | 17% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.0 | 39.4 | 70.4 | -8.4 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.6 | 39.8 | 73.4 | -6.2 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (23) | 29.3 | 40.2 | 69.6 | -10.9 | 9% | 43% |
| vs Similar (3) | 37.3 | 34.7 | 72.0 | +2.7 | 67% | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (3) | 45.0 | 32.3 | 77.3 | +12.7 | 67% | 67% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellarmine -2 | 74.0% | 2.02 | 2.28 | 2.01 | 1.98 | 1.95 | 1.88 | +32.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine -1 | 76.7% | 1.91 | 2.12 | 1.88 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.83 | +31.5pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine (regulation) | 74.9% | 2.03 | 2.15 | 2.07 | 1.87 | - | - | +31.2pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine -1.5 | 75.0% | 1.97 | 2.25 | 2.18 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.85 | +31.0pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +1 | 78.8% | 1.85 | 1.99 | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1.71 | - | +30.6pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine win | 77.2% | 2.00 | 2.12 | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.00 | +29.6pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +1.5 | 79.2% | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.91 | 1.87 | 1.85 | +29.3pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +2 | 81.5% | 1.74 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.60 | - | - | +29.2pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine -2.5 | 71.3% | 2.20 | 2.35 | 2.25 | 2.00 | - | - | +29.0pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 74 | 78.9% | 1.82 | 1.82 | - | - | - | - | +28.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 72.5 | 82.2% | 1.67 | 1.67 | - | - | - | - | +27.9pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 73.5 | 79.5% | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.80 | - | +27.9pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 74.5 | 76.6% | 1.93 | 2.02 | 1.95 | 1.94 | 1.91 | 1.84 | +27.8pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 75.5 | 73.4% | 1.95 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.91 | 1.86 | 1.85 | +27.5pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +2.5 | 82.0% | 1.72 | 1.80 | 1.76 | 1.74 | 1.57 | - | +27.5pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 71.5 | 84.6% | 1.57 | 1.57 | - | - | - | - | +27.2pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +3 | 83.7% | 1.60 | 1.69 | 1.52 | - | - | - | +27.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 76.5 | 70.1% | 2.04 | 2.35 | 2.12 | 1.86 | 1.85 | - | +25.7pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +3.5 | 84.0% | 1.60 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.50 | - | - | +25.6pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 75 | 75.8% | 1.84 | 1.84 | - | - | - | - | +25.6pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine -3 | 70.4% | 2.05 | 2.05 | - | - | - | - | +25.4pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 70.5 | 86.9% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +25.3pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 69.5 | 88.8% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +24.3pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +4.5 | 86.1% | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +23.9pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +5.5 | 87.9% | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.37 | - | - | - | +23.2pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine over 76 | 72.5% | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.87 | 1.85 | - | - | +23.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +7.5 | 91.0% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +23.0pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +6.5 | 89.6% | 1.36 | 1.42 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +21.4pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +4 | 85.8% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +21.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +5 | 87.7% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +20.3pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +6 | 89.4% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +19.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +8.5 | 92.3% | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +18.8pp | Won |
| Bellarmine +9.5 | 93.4% | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.22 | - | - | - | +18.4pp | Won |
| Over 141.5 | 79.4% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +13.0pp | Lost |
| Over 145.5 | 71.7% | 1.54 | 1.62 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +11.5pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +14.5 | 97.0% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +11.5pp | Won |
| Over 144.5 | 73.8% | 1.48 | 1.55 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +11.0pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +13.5 | 96.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +11.0pp | Won |
| Over 143.5 | 75.7% | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.35 | - | - | - | +10.5pp | Lost |
| Over 142.5 | 77.6% | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +10.1pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +18.5 | 98.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Bellarmine +19.5 | 98.7% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Over 145 | 73.2% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Lost |
| Over 146 | 71.1% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +8.6pp | Lost |
| Over 144 | 75.3% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +8.3pp | Lost |
| Over 143 | 77.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +7.7pp | Lost |
| Bellarmine +23.5 | 99.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois under 79.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois under 80.5 | 76.0% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| Bellarmine +24.5 | 99.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 96.0% | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.03 | - | - | - | +6.2pp | Won |
| Over 140.5 | 81.1% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +5.8pp | Lost |
| Over 130.5 | 93.3% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Over 135.5 | 88.3% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Won |
| Over 125.5 | 96.5% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 57.5 | 93.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.7pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 56.5 | 95.0% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +1.3pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 58.5 | 92.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +1.1pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 59.5 | 91.2% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 60.5 | 89.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -0.7pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 61.5 | 87.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -1.2pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois +21.5 | 87.3% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -2.4pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 89.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -2.4pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 62.5 | 85.4% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -2.9pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 65.5 | 77.5% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | -3.0pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 63.5 | 83.0% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -3.1pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 67.5 | 71.2% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | -4.1pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois +20.5 | 85.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -4.2pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 64.5 | 80.4% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -4.6pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois over 66.5 | 74.4% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | -5.1pp | Won |
| Under 170.5 | 82.6% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -6.1pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois +16.5 | 76.3% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -9.8pp | Won |
| Under 165.5 | 74.0% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -9.8pp | Won |
| Northern Illinois +15.5 | 73.6% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -12.5pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Franklin | 99-82 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Miami (Ohio) | 73-80 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Indiana | 69-92 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Vanderbilt | 47-93 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Central Arkansas | 73-86 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Jacksonville Dolphins | 82-79 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Austin Peay | 111-97 |
| 26/02/26 | A | North Alabama | 68-73 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Eastern Kentucky | 92-95 |
| 19/02/26 | H | Lipscomb | 72-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Clarke | 82-43 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Dayton | 81-76 OT |
| 06/11/26 | A | Tulsa | 75-94 |
| 02/11/26 | A | Grambling St. | 87-89 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Akron | 55-94 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Kent State | 76-102 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Ball State | 43-79 |
| 25/02/26 | A | Toledo | 69-79 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Ohio | 66-74 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Buffalo | 72-70 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLW | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 72.0 | 99.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 86.8 | 82.0 | 88.3 |
| Point differential | -14.8 | +17.0 | -25.3 |
| Avg total | 158.8 | 181.0 | 151.3 |
| Over 149 | 75% | 100% | 67% |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWW | 50% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 81.2 | 82.0 | 81.0 |
| Allowed / game | 75.5 | 43.0 | 86.3 |
| Point differential | +5.8 | +39.0 | -5.3 |
| Avg total | 156.8 | 125.0 | 167.3 |
| Over 149 | 75% | 0% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 25% | 0% | 33% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 97.0 | 66.5 | +30.5 | |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.7 | 65.7 | +21.0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 84.5 | 70.0 | +14.5 | |
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 74.8 | 78.5 | -3.8 | |
| 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.8 | 79.0 | -9.2 | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 87.2 | 102.2 | -15.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.7 | 88.7 | -27.0 | |
| 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 84.0 | 83.0 | +1.0 | |
| 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 72.0 | 86.8 | -14.8 | |
| 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 74.7 | -14.3 | |
| 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.5 | 83.0 | -22.5 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 62.7 | +21.3 | |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 68.7 | +20.3 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 100% | 86.3 | 76.0 | +10.3 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 75.0 | +8.0 | |
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 79.0 | 60.8 | +18.2 | |
| 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 77.3 | 63.3 | +14.0 | |
| 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 66.0 | 64.3 | +1.7 | |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 76.0 | 75.7 | +0.3 | |
| 9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.2 | 75.5 | +5.8 | |
| 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 83.3 | 75.3 | +8.0 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 77.7 | 79.0 | -1.3 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 68.8 | 72.5 | -3.8 | |
| 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 70.0 | 78.5 | -8.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 33 | 64 | |
| 27 | 45 | 72 |
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