BK Ogre vs Keila KK Result & Analysis

BK Ogre host Keila KK in the Latvia-Estonian League on 13 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Ogre as the clear favourite, assigning an 80% chance of victory largely because the team has posted a 4-4 record, averaging 87.4 points and allowing 86.4, while Keila KK sits 4-5 with 72.7 points for and 81.7 against. Ogre's home form is stronger, 3-2 at home with 92.0 points per game and 86.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 92-88 win over BC Kalev/Cramo and a 101-77 triumph over Keila Coolbet, though they suffered a 88-92 loss to Ventspils. Keila KK's road record is 2-2, scoring 71.0 and conceding 82.2, and they have also won three of their last five, highlighted by a 79-66 win over Rigas Juniori. Historically, Ogre has dominated the rivalry, winning seven of eight meetings, most recently 112-99 in February 2026. Pythia projects a 89-79 score, with a 167.8 total, and an 80% probability that Ogre will win; the model gives a 45% chance that Ogre covers the -11.0 line and a 48% chance of the over on the 168.5 total, with a 4% likelihood of overtime. The game will be decided by the home team's offensive edge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BK Ogre winLost

80.5%fair 1.24

Best odds1.16

Implied82.4%

Edge-1.9pp

Keila KK winWon

19.5%fair 5.13

Best odds5.50

Implied17.6%

Edge+1.9pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 18:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BK OgreLast 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormOgre

Date

Competition

BC Kalev/Cramo

93-104

104

-11

85avg 78

A10/03

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#13

101-106

101

106

-5

95avg 78

H14/03

Latvia-Estonian League

VEF Riga

73-92

-19

54avg 78

H26/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Rigas Zelli

85-110

110

-25

63avg 78

A03/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#14

106-81

106

+25

101avg 78

H10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

76-69

71avg 78

A16/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

78-82

-4

77avg 78

A21/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Ventspils

88-92

-4

80avg 78

H24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

101-77

101

+24

97avg 78

H31/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BC Kalev/Cramo

92-88

no box

H07/11

Latvia-Estonian League

24-28

27-24

23-22

19-30

22-20

29-22

21-30

29-34

20-29

23-23

17-17

13-23

15-34

21-28

23-29

26-19

18-22

30-21

22-15

36-23

20-15

17-11

23-22

16-21

21-26

18-25

18-18

21-13

29-23

22-29

19-23

18-17

22-22

26-16

28-25

25-14

26-20

23-14

23-23

20-31

179.4Avg total

89.3Scored

90.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (8)	87.4	86.4	173.8	+1.0	50%
Season at home (5)	92.0	86.0	178.0	+6.0	60%
Season away (3)	79.7	87.0	166.7	-7.3	33%
Last 10 (10)	89.3	90.1	179.4	-0.8	40%
Last 5 (5)	87.0	81.6	168.6	+5.4	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	84.7	90.8	175.5	-6.1	27%
vs Similar (7)	81.0	84.0	165.0	-3.0	29%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	89.5	79.5	169.0	+10.1	73%

This opponent (Keila KK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Keila KKLast 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKK

Date

Competition

Valmiera Glass Via

74-96

-22

54avg 66

H14/03

Latvia-Estonian League

VEF Riga

60-90

-30

43avg 66

A29/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Valmiera Glass Via

82-106

106

-24

77avg 66

H03/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Parnu

75-70

68avg 66

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tartu Ulikool

71-89

-18

56avg 66

H17/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

81-60

+21

80avg 66

H20/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Rigas Zelli

70-103

103

-33

58avg 66

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

78-72

74avg 66

H27/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

58-79

-21

43avg 66

H31/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Rigas Juniori

#12

79-66

+13

no box

A05/11

Latvia-Estonian League

16-16

28-24

12-33

18-23

21-33

10-21

10-17

19-19

30-38

17-22

16-18

19-28

21-24

19-12

20-11

15-23

19-19

21-23

9-26

22-21

22-19

17-20

25-11

17-10

18-25

21-27

14-26

17-25

28-19

24-27

12-11

14-15

17-20

19-21

12-16

10-22

22-17

17-19

27-18

13-12

155.9Avg total

72.8Scored

83.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	72.7	81.7	154.3	-9.0	44%
Season at home (5)	74.0	81.2	155.2	-7.2	40%
Season away (4)	71.0	82.2	153.2	-11.2	50%
Last 10 (10)	72.8	83.1	155.9	-10.3	40%
Last 5 (5)	73.2	76.0	149.2	-2.8	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	77.0	94.5	171.5	-17.5	10%
vs Similar (7)	90.7	87.3	178.0	+3.4	71%
vs Weaker (2)	79.5	66.0	145.5	+13.5	100%

This opponent (BK Ogre) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 164Actual: Over 164

Over 164

58.7%

@ 1.64+2.3pp

Under 164

41.3%

@ 2.12-2.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.64

Marathon Be

1.53

Under

Bet365

2.12

Over/Under 169.25 · main lineActual: Over 169.25

Over 169.25

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under 169.25

no forecast

@ 1.81

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.81

Under

1xBet

1.81

Over/Under 174Actual: Under 174

Over 174

34.3%

Under 174

65.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

BK Ogre total 85.5Actual: BK Ogre under 85.5

Over 85.5

62.8%

@ 1.52-2.7pp

Under 85.5

37.2%

@ 2.67+2.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.52

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.34

Under

Betano

2.67

1xBet

2.54

Bet365

2.40

BK Ogre total 89.5 · main lineActual: BK Ogre under 89.5

Over 89.5

47.0%

@ 1.83-4.4pp

Under 89.5

53.0%

@ 1.91+4.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.83

WilliamHill

1.80

Marathon Be

1.78

Betano

1.78

1xBet

1.65

Under

Betano

1.91

WilliamHill

1.91

Marathon Be

1.86

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.80

BK Ogre total 93.5Actual: BK Ogre under 93.5

Over 93.5

31.8%

@ 2.65-5.7pp

Under 93.5

68.2%

@ 1.47+5.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.65

Betano

2.45

1xBet

2.24

Under

Betano

1.47

Bet365

1.43

1xBet

1.42

Keila KK total 73.5Actual: Keila KK over 73.5

Over 73.5

70.0%

@ 1.40+3.2pp

Under 73.5

30.0%

@ 2.77-3.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.40

1xBet

1.30

Under

1xBet

2.77

Betano

2.67

Keila KK total 77.5 · main lineActual: Keila KK over 77.5

Over 77.5

55.2%

@ 1.85+2.4pp

Under 77.5

44.8%

@ 2.02-2.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

WilliamHill

1.85

Bet365

1.80

Betano

1.67

1xBet

1.58

Under

Betano

2.02

1xBet

1.91

Bet365

1.86

WilliamHill

1.85

Keila KK total 81.5Actual: Keila KK over 81.5

Over 81.5

39.7%

@ 2.27-1.0pp

Under 81.5

60.3%

@ 1.53+1.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.27

1xBet

2.11

Under

Betano

1.53

1xBet

1.48

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread BK Ogre -14Actual: Keila KK +14

BK O -14

34.6%

@ 2.26-6.4pp

KEIL +14

65.4%

@ 1.60+6.4pp

Best 5 market prices

BK O

Pinnacle

2.26

Bet365

2.20

KEIL

Bet365

1.60

Pinnacle

1.57

Spread BK Ogre -11 · main lineActual: Keila KK +11

BK O -11

45.3%

@ 1.88-4.3pp

KEIL +11

54.7%

@ 1.86+4.3pp

Best 5 market prices

BK O

Pinnacle

1.88

SBO

1.86

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.83

Bet365

1.80

KEIL

Bet365

1.86

Pinnacle

1.85

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.83

SBO

1.80

Spread BK Ogre -8Actual: Keila KK +8

BK O -8

56.7%

@ 1.52-4.6pp

KEIL +8

43.3%

@ 2.40+4.6pp

Best 5 market prices

BK O

Marathon Be

1.52

Bet365

1.52

KEIL

Bet365

2.40

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

BK OgreKeila KK

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.4	22.8	44.2	-1.4	43%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.5	22.5	45.0	+0.1	53%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	20.2	23.1	43.3	-2.9	33%	47%
Last 10 (10)	21.7	23.9	45.6	-2.2	40%	70%
Last 5 (5)	23.6	21.2	44.8	+2.4	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	21.1	25.5	46.5	-4.4	36%	82%
vs Similar (7)	20.9	22.9	43.7	-2.0	29%	57%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	21.4	19.2	40.5	+2.2	64%	27%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.2	22.1	43.3	-0.8	43%	50%
Last 30 at home (16)	21.1	21.2	42.2	-0.1	44%	38%
Last 30 away (14)	21.4	23.1	44.5	-1.6	43%	64%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	23.0	44.4	-1.6	30%	50%
Last 5 (5)	21.4	20.0	41.4	+1.4	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	20.5	23.4	43.9	-2.9	33%	57%
vs Similar (7)	22.3	19.0	41.3	+3.3	57%	29%
vs Weaker (2)	25.0	19.0	44.0	+6.0	100%	50%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	22.0	20.5	42.5	+1.4	53%	50%
Last 30 at home (15)	23.4	19.9	43.3	+3.5	60%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	20.5	21.1	41.7	-0.6	47%	47%
Last 10 (10)	23.6	21.3	44.9	+2.3	60%	70%
Last 5 (5)	21.2	19.0	40.2	+2.2	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	21.8	22.0	43.8	-0.2	45%	64%
vs Similar (7)	22.4	20.6	43.0	+1.9	57%	57%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	22.6	18.8	41.5	+3.8	64%	36%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.7	24.5	45.2	-3.7	30%	57%
Last 30 at home (16)	20.4	25.2	45.6	-4.8	19%	56%
Last 30 away (14)	21.1	23.6	44.7	-2.6	43%	57%
Last 10 (10)	19.3	21.6	40.9	-2.3	20%	40%
Last 5 (5)	19.6	22.8	42.4	-3.2	0%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	20.0	24.7	44.8	-4.7	33%	52%
vs Similar (7)	22.9	24.0	46.9	-1.1	29%	71%
vs Weaker (2)	20.5	23.5	44.0	-3.0	0%	50%

BK OgreLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

BC Kalev/Cramo

51-52

-1

A10/03

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#13

51-42

H14/03

Latvia-Estonian League

VEF Riga

43-52

-9

H26/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Rigas Zelli

36-62

-26

A03/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Latvijas Universitate

#14

48-43

H10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

37-26

+11

A16/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

39-51

-12

A21/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Ventspils

51-52

-1

H24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

48-38

+10

H31/10

Latvia-Estonian League

BC Kalev/Cramo

49-34

+15

H07/11

Latvia-Estonian League

90.5Avg total

45.3Scored

45.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.25
Last 30 (30)	43.3	43.3	86.7	+0.0	50%	60%
Last 30 at home (15)	45.9	42.4	88.3	+3.5	60%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	40.7	44.3	85.0	-3.5	40%	53%
Last 10 (10)	45.3	45.2	90.5	+0.1	50%	80%
Last 5 (5)	44.8	40.2	85.0	+4.6	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	42.9	47.5	90.4	-4.5	27%	82%
vs Similar (7)	43.3	43.4	86.7	-0.1	43%	43%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	44.0	38.0	82.0	+6.0	82%	45%

This opponent (Keila KK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Keila KKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Valmiera Glass Via

44-40

H14/03

Latvia-Estonian League

VEF Riga

31-54

-23

A29/09

Latvia-Estonian League

Valmiera Glass Via

47-60

-13

H03/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Parnu

40-36

A10/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tartu Ulikool

40-42

-2

H17/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Keila Coolbet

#15

39-39

H20/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Rigas Zelli

39-52

-13

A24/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Viimsi

#13

52-46

H27/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Tal Tech

36-41

-5

H31/10

Latvia-Estonian League

Rigas Juniori

#12

39-36

A05/11

Latvia-Estonian League

85.3Avg total

40.7Scored

44.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.25
Last 30 (30)	42.0	46.5	88.5	-4.6	30%	67%
Last 30 at home (16)	41.5	46.4	87.9	-4.9	25%	56%
Last 30 away (14)	42.5	46.7	89.2	-4.2	36%	79%
Last 10 (10)	40.7	44.6	85.3	-3.9	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	41.0	42.8	83.8	-1.8	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	40.6	48.1	88.7	-7.5	19%	67%
vs Similar (7)	45.1	43.0	88.1	+2.1	57%	71%
vs Weaker (2)	45.5	42.5	88.0	+3.0	50%	50%

This opponent (BK Ogre) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Keila KK win

BK O win

no forecast

@ 1.31

KEIL win

no forecast

@ 3.94

1st half Spread BK Ogre -6 · main lineActual: Keila KK +6

BK O -6

no forecast

@ 1.83

KEIL +6

no forecast

@ 1.90

1st half Over/Under 84.25 · main lineActual: Under 84.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.82

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

BK Ogre 1st half total 44.5 · main lineActual: BK Ogre under 44.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.83

Under

no forecast

@ 2.02

Keila KK 1st half total 39 · main lineActual: Keila KK over 39

Over

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under

no forecast

@ 1.86

1st half: BK O + total 83.5

BK O & over

no forecast

@ 2.60

BK O & under

no forecast

@ 2.65

1st half: Draw + total 83.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 31.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 31.00

1st half: KEIL + total 83.5

KEIL & over

no forecast

@ 6.25

KEIL & under

no forecast

@ 6.25

1st half Over/Under 83Actual: Under 83

Over

no forecast

@ 1.77

Under

no forecast

@ 1.97

1st half Over/Under 85.5Actual: Under 85.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.12

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

1st half Spread BK Ogre -7Actual: Keila KK +7

BK O -7

no forecast

@ 2.01

KEIL +7

no forecast

@ 1.74

1st half Spread BK Ogre -4.5Actual: Keila KK +4.5

BK O -4.5

no forecast

@ 1.65

KEIL +4.5

no forecast

@ 2.15

1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Under 81.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.62

Under

no forecast

@ 2.22

1st half Over/Under 87.5Actual: Under 87.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.55

Under

no forecast

@ 1.47

1st half Spread BK Ogre -8.5Actual: Keila KK +8.5

BK O -8.5

no forecast

@ 2.27

KEIL +8.5

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Keila KK (regulation)

BK O

no forecast

@ 1.36

Draw

no forecast

@ 23.00

KEIL

no forecast

@ 3.70

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	20.9	20.0	40.9	+1.0	50%	50%
Last 30 at home (15)	21.1	21.1	42.2	-0.1	53%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	20.8	18.8	39.6	+2.0	47%	47%
Last 10 (10)	21.7	22.4	44.1	-0.7	40%	70%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	22.2	44.4	+0.0	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	20.8	19.9	40.7	+0.9	45%	45%
vs Similar (7)	20.1	19.4	39.6	+0.7	29%	43%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	20.3	21.3	41.5	-1.0	64%	55%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	18.8	21.0	39.8	-2.2	37%	40%
Last 30 at home (16)	18.9	21.2	40.2	-2.3	44%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	18.6	20.7	39.3	-2.1	29%	36%
Last 10 (10)	15.7	18.7	34.4	-3.0	40%	20%
Last 5 (5)	18.0	16.4	34.4	+1.6	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	17.5	21.7	39.2	-4.2	29%	38%
vs Similar (7)	22.7	21.7	44.4	+1.0	43%	57%
vs Weaker (2)	18.5	11.0	29.5	+7.5	100%	0%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	20.3	21.0	41.2	-0.7	40%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.5	20.7	43.1	+1.8	53%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	18.1	21.3	39.3	-3.2	27%	40%
Last 10 (10)	22.3	22.5	44.8	-0.2	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	20.0	19.2	39.2	+0.8	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	18.4	21.7	40.1	-3.4	27%	55%
vs Similar (7)	17.6	21.1	38.7	-3.6	43%	29%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	23.5	19.6	43.2	+3.9	55%	45%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.5
Last 30 (30)	18.8	22.2	41.0	-3.5	27%	50%
Last 30 at home (16)	18.6	21.1	39.8	-2.5	31%	50%
Last 30 away (14)	18.9	23.5	42.4	-4.6	21%	50%
Last 10 (10)	16.4	19.8	36.2	-3.4	30%	30%
Last 5 (5)	14.2	16.8	31.0	-2.6	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	18.7	23.8	42.5	-5.1	19%	57%
vs Similar (7)	20.0	20.3	40.3	-0.3	43%	43%
vs Weaker (2)	15.5	12.5	28.0	+3.0	50%	0%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.25
Last 30 (30)	41.2	40.9	82.1	+0.3	43%	33%
Last 30 at home (15)	43.5	41.8	85.3	+1.7	47%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	38.9	40.1	78.9	-1.2	40%	20%
Last 10 (10)	44.0	44.9	88.9	-0.9	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	42.2	41.4	83.6	+0.8	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	39.2	41.6	80.8	-2.5	36%	27%
vs Similar (7)	37.7	40.6	78.3	-2.9	29%	14%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)	43.8	40.9	84.7	+2.9	55%	45%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.25
Last 30 (30)	37.5	43.2	80.8	-5.7	30%	30%
Last 30 at home (16)	37.6	42.4	79.9	-4.8	25%	31%
Last 30 away (14)	37.5	44.2	81.7	-6.7	36%	29%
Last 10 (10)	32.1	38.5	70.6	-6.4	30%	10%
Last 5 (5)	32.2	33.2	65.4	-1.0	40%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)	36.1	45.5	81.7	-9.4	19%	33%
vs Similar (7)	42.7	42.0	84.7	+0.7	57%	29%
vs Weaker (2)	34.0	23.5	57.5	+10.5	50%	0%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

BK O win + total 168.5

🔒 Pro

KEIL win + total 168.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: BK O leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: KEIL leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (BK O:KEIL): BK O wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
BK Ogre under 94.5	71.7%	1.36	1xBet 1.36	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
Keila KK +21.5	84.9%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Keila KK +18.5	78.2%	1.28	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Won
Keila KK +17.5	75.6%	1.33	Betano 1.33	-	-	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
Keila KK +16.5	72.7%	1.37	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.39	1xBet 1.30	-	-	+6.6pp	Won
BK Ogre under 95.5	75.0%	1.31	Bet365 1.32	1xBet 1.31	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
BK Ogre over 71.5	95.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.9pp	Won
BK Ogre under 98.5	83.5%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+5.7pp	Won
BK Ogre under 97.5	80.9%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
BK Ogre over 69.5	97.1%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.6pp	Won
BK Ogre over 68.5	97.7%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
BK Ogre over 77.5	86.8%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
BK Ogre over 70.5	96.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+5.3pp	Won
BK Ogre over 73.5	93.4%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
Keila KK over 66.5	88.9%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+5.1pp	Won
BK Ogre over 75.5	90.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
BK Ogre over 72.5	94.6%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+5.0pp	Won
Keila KK over 70.5	79.5%	1.25	Bet365 1.25	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Keila KK over 72.5	73.4%	1.35	Bet365 1.35	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Under 193.5	93.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
BK Ogre +13.5	97.2%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Won
Over 142.5	93.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
Keila KK over 68.5	84.7%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+4.2pp	Won
BK Ogre over 74.5	92.1%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+4.1pp	Won
Overtime: no	96.4%	1.02	Betano 1.02	WilliamHill 1.02	-	-	-	+4.0pp	Won
Keila KK over 67.5	86.9%	1.12	Bet365 1.12	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
BK Ogre over 81.5	76.5%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Lost
Under 183.5	83.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
BK Ogre +8.5	93.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Under 192.5	93.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Under 188.5	89.5%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Over 152.5	82.2%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
BK Ogre over 76.5	88.8%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Under 178.5	74.7%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Keila KK under 94.5	92.9%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Keila KK over 73.5	70.0%	1.35	Betano 1.40	1xBet 1.30	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
BK Ogre over 78.5	84.6%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
BK Ogre over 83.5	70.0%	1.38	Bet365 1.38	-	-	-	-	+3.0pp	Lost
Over 147.5	89.1%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+3.0pp	Won
Over 143.5	93.1%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Keila KK under 88.5	82.3%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Lost
BK Ogre over 79.5	82.2%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+2.7pp	Won
Over 157.5	73.0%	1.32	Bet365 1.32	-	-	-	-	+2.6pp	Won
Keila KK under 92.5	90.1%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+1.8pp	Won
Over 148.5	87.9%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Under 187.5	88.4%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+1.2pp	Won
Under 182.5	81.7%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+1.2pp	Won
Keila KK under 90.5	86.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.1pp	Won
Keila KK under 84.5	70.9%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	1xBet 1.30	-	-	-	+1.0pp	Lost
Over 153.5	80.5%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+1.0pp	Won
Keila KK under 87.5	79.7%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	+0.9pp	Lost
BK Ogre (regulation)	78.3%	1.16	Betano 1.18	Marathon Bet 1.15	1xBet 1.15	-	-	+0.8pp	Lost
Under 177.5	72.7%	1.27	Bet365 1.27	-	-	-	-	-0.1pp	Won
BK Ogre +3.5	86.5%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	-0.2pp	Lost
BK Ogre -1.5	78.4%	1.18	Bet365 1.18	-	-	-	-	-0.4pp	Lost
Keila KK under 86.5	77.0%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-0.8pp	Lost
Over 158.5	71.0%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	-0.9pp	Won
BK Ogre win	80.5%	1.13	Betano 1.16	Marathon Bet 1.15	1xBet 1.15	Bet365 1.14	Betfair 1.13	-1.9pp	Lost

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

BK Ogretheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BK Ogre: 88.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀37%

🏀16%

🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 37% of the points

🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 16% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game

52%

30%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.0	20.8	57.8%	52.5%	41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.2	10.8	37.0%	31.4%	32.4
🏀 Free throws	19.5	14.0	71.8%	68.3%	14.0

They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Keila KKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Keila KK: 72.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀47%

🏀🏀🏀36%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 47% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 36% of the points

🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game

52%

30%

18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.8	16.9	47.2%	52.5%	33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	8.6	33.9%	31.4%	25.8
🏀 Free throws	19.8	12.4	62.6%	68.3%	12.4

They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.8	23.0	56.4%	52.5%	46.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.4	8.9	36.5%	31.4%	26.7
🏀 Free throws	25.2	17.5	69.4%	68.3%	17.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.4	20.8	52.8%	52.5%	41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.2	10.2	31.7%	31.4%	30.6
🏀 Free throws	18.5	13.6	73.5%	68.3%	13.6

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.6	20.4	54.1%	52.5%	40.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.1	9.3	34.5%	31.4%	28.0
🏀 Free throws	20.8	14.5	69.6%	68.3%	14.5

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.9	21.0	50.1%	52.5%	42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.1	7.3	30.4%	31.4%	22.0
🏀 Free throws	22.0	14.5	65.8%	68.3%	14.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.0	22.5	52.3%	52.5%	44.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.3	7.9	32.3%	31.4%	23.6
🏀 Free throws	22.5	15.5	69.1%	68.3%	15.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.4	23.2	56.0%	52.5%	46.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.4	10.4	32.0%	31.4%	31.1
🏀 Free throws	20.4	14.3	70.4%	68.3%	14.3

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

BK Ogre

WWLLWWLLLL

Keila KK

WLWLWLWLLL

#10

League position

-2.5

Net rating

-15.2

100.7

Offensive rating

79.3

103.2

Defensive rating

94.5

56.7%

Effective FG%

48.7%

55.8%

Opp. effective FG%

50.4%

14.9%

Turnover %

20.2%

0.30

Free-throw rate

0.32

37.0%

3-point %

33.9%

53.8%

Assist %

56.9%

40%

Form (last 10/10)

40%

Profile

■ BK Ogre ■ Keila KK

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

BK Ogre wins

Keila KK wins

Date	Game	Score
04/02/26	BK Ogre v Keila KK	112-99 OT
25/10/25	Keila KK v BK Ogre	74-90
08/01/25	BK Ogre v Keila KK	99-91
12/10/24	Keila KK v BK Ogre	83-96
02/03/24	BK Ogre v Keila KK	89-65
18/10/23	Keila KK v BK Ogre	80-71
21/01/23	BK Ogre v Keila KK	97-76
30/10/22	Keila KK v BK Ogre	81-87

BK Ogrelast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
07/11/26	H	BC Kalev/Cramo	92-88
31/10/26	H	Keila Coolbet	101-77
24/10/26	H	Ventspils	88-92
21/10/26	A	Tal Tech	78-82
16/10/26	A	Viimsi	76-69
10/10/26	H	Latvijas Universitate	106-81
03/10/26	A	Rigas Zelli	85-110
26/09/26	H	VEF Riga	73-92
14/03/26	H	Latvijas Universitate	101-106
10/03/26	A	BC Kalev/Cramo	93-104

Keila KKlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
05/11/26	A	Rigas Juniori	79-66
31/10/26	H	Tal Tech	58-79
27/10/26	H	Viimsi	78-72
24/10/26	A	Rigas Zelli	70-103
20/10/26	H	Keila Coolbet	81-60
17/10/26	H	Tartu Ulikool	71-89
10/10/26	A	Parnu	75-70
03/10/26	H	Valmiera Glass Via	82-106
29/09/26	A	VEF Riga	60-90
14/03/26	H	Valmiera Glass Via	74-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BK Ogre

Latvia-Estonian League 2026

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLWW	50%
Home	LWLWW	60%
Away	LWL	33%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	8	5	3
Win %	50%	60%	33%
Points / game	87.4	92.0	79.7
Allowed / game	86.4	86.0	87.0
Point differential	+1.0	+6.0	-7.3
Avg total	173.8	178.0	166.7
Over 169.25	62%	80%	33%
Win by 10+	25%	40%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	50% (2)	0% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Keila KK

Latvia-Estonian League 2026

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWLW	44%
Home	LLWWL	40%
Away	LWLW	50%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	5	4
Win %	44%	40%	50%
Points / game	72.7	74.0	71.0
Allowed / game	81.7	81.2	82.2
Point differential	-9.0	-7.2	-11.2
Avg total	154.3	155.2	153.2
Over 169.25	22%	20%	25%
Win by 10+	22%	20%	25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Rigas Zelli	8	8	0	100%	93.8	74.4	+19.4
2	VEF Riga	9	7	2	78%	89.6	75.0	+14.6
3	Valmiera Glass Via	9	7	2	78%	89.9	76.9	+13.0
4	Ventspils	9	6	3	67%	86.2	82.0	+4.2
5	Tartu Ulikool	8	5	3	62%	82.8	76.4	+6.4
6	Tal Tech	10	6	4	60%	73.7	73.8	-0.1
7	Parnu	7	4	3	57%	78.9	78.1	+0.7
8	BC Kalev/Cramo	8	4	4	50%	84.6	82.6	+2.0
9	BK Ogre	8	4	4	50%	87.4	86.4	+1.0
10	BK Liepaja	9	4	5	44%	83.6	76.0	+7.6
11	Keila KK	9	4	5	44%	72.7	81.7	-9.0
12	Rigas Juniori	8	3	5	38%	80.0	88.5	-8.5
13	Viimsi	10	2	8	20%	74.5	86.2	-11.7
14	Latvijas Universitate	9	1	8	11%	76.9	91.9	-15.0
15	Keila Coolbet	9	0	9	0%	70.3	91.1	-20.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
BK Ogre	21	17	15	28	81
Keila KK	23	18	28	20	89

← all games of the day

BK Ogre vs Keila KK Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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