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BK Ogre vs Tallinna Kalev Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 25 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 15:00
Final 101-73
25-21 22-15 29-20 25-17
Position#7
Record6-5
FormLWWLW
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game76.5
BK Ogre 🏆
vs
Position#16
Record2-8
FormLLLLL
Points / game66.2
Allowed / game81.8
EuropeLatvia-Estonian League· Ogres
Other2023
Meetings · BK Ogre v Tallinna Kalev
25 Nov 2023
BK O101
TALL73
28 Jan 2023
BK O72
TALL68
11 Dec 2021
BK O106
TALL80
09 Jan 2019
BK O94
TALL77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BK Ogre winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tallinna Kalev winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BK OgreLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOgre
Date
Competition
VEF Riga
#3
L
74-94
74
94
-20
66avg 75
H04/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
78-64
78
64
+14
75avg 75
A07/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
#15
W
91-59
91
59
+32
99avg 75
A11/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Liepaja
#11
W
86-62
86
62
+24
86avg 75
H14/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Keila KK
#12
L
71-80
71
80
-9
69avg 75
A18/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tartu Ulikool
#5
L
65-80
65
80
-15
56avg 75
H21/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Valmiera Glass Via
#13
W
94-73
94
73
+21
86avg 75
A27/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Prometey
#2
W
85-76
85
76
+9
88avg 75
A04/11
Latvia-Estonian League
BC Kalev/Cramo
#1
L
51-106
51
106
-55
30avg 75
A10/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
#15
W
88-71
88
71
+17
91avg 75
H15/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-17
14-27
20-27
18-23
21-14
19-9
18-18
20-23
23-15
29-19
18-14
21-11
22-20
22-13
22-16
20-13
11-18
14-22
26-21
20-19
29-16
16-20
6-21
14-23
19-9
22-22
24-19
29-23
29-18
15-24
25-19
16-15
13-24
13-31
14-27
11-24
28-15
13-18
22-17
25-21
154.8Avg total
78.3Scored
76.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)78.076.5154.5+1.555%
Season at home (5)77.676.8154.4+0.840%
Season away (6)78.376.3154.7+2.067%
Last 10 (10)78.376.5154.8+1.860%
Last 5 (5)76.681.2157.8-4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)70.184.2154.4-14.125%
vs Similar (10)79.285.4164.6-6.230%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)89.470.5159.9+18.983%
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna KalevLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKalev
Date
Competition
Rapla
#10
W
78-72
78
72
+6
80avg 54
A22/09
Latvia-Estonian League
Valmiera Glass Via
#13
W
87-79
87
79
+8
75avg 54
H30/09
Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
#15
L
56-69
56
69
-13
50avg 54
H08/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BC Kalev/Cramo
#1
L
51-98
51
98
-47
33avg 54
A13/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Rigas Zelli
#6
L
50-78
50
78
-28
41avg 54
A21/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tal Tech
#9
L
73-82
73
82
-9
63avg 54
H29/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tartu Ulikool
#5
L
63-77
63
77
-14
57avg 54
H01/11
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Liepaja
#11
L
63-87
63
87
-24
50avg 54
A09/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Ventspils
#4
L
66-93
66
93
-27
48avg 54
A10/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Latvijas Universitate
#14
L
75-83
75
83
-8
61avg 54
H19/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-9
14-21
22-22
15-20
25-21
14-19
25-23
23-16
18-18
14-17
16-11
8-23
16-24
13-28
14-23
8-23
12-16
6-15
12-24
20-23
21-22
25-19
10-17
17-24
12-21
19-17
19-20
13-19
16-29
15-20
20-18
12-20
18-25
10-21
23-30
15-17
20-22
20-17
16-14
19-30
148.0Avg total
66.2Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)66.281.8148.0-15.620%
Season at home (5)70.878.0148.8-7.220%
Season away (5)61.685.6147.2-24.020%
Last 10 (10)66.281.8148.0-15.620%
Last 5 (5)68.084.4152.4-16.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)67.384.1151.4-16.815%
vs Similar (7)79.182.7161.9-3.614%
vs Weaker (3)91.376.3167.7+15.067%
This opponent (BK Ogre) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.1+5.1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -2.5-2.5Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -6.5-6.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.1+5.1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -2.5-2.5Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -6.5-6.5
BK OgreTallinna Kalev
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BK OgreLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
VEF Riga
#3
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H04/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
40-23
40
23
+17
A07/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
#15
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A11/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Liepaja
#11
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H14/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Keila KK
#12
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A18/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tartu Ulikool
#5
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H21/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Valmiera Glass Via
#13
W
41-31
41
31
+10
A27/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Prometey
#2
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A04/11
Latvia-Estonian League
BC Kalev/Cramo
#1
L
26-55
26
55
-29
A10/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
#15
W
41-33
41
33
+8
H15/11
Latvia-Estonian League
76.5Avg total
39.4Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.040.782.7+1.353%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.940.983.7+2.057%-
Last 30 away (16)41.240.681.8+0.650%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.176.5+2.370%-
Last 5 (5)39.439.478.8+0.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)36.642.178.8-5.525%-
vs Similar (10)43.345.288.5-1.940%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)44.436.080.4+8.483%-
This opponent (Tallinna Kalev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tallinna KalevLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rapla
#10
W
41-30
41
30
+11
A22/09
Latvia-Estonian League
Valmiera Glass Via
#13
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H30/09
Latvia-Estonian League
Viimsi
#15
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H08/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BC Kalev/Cramo
#1
L
29-52
29
52
-23
A13/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Rigas Zelli
#6
L
18-31
18
31
-13
A21/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tal Tech
#9
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H29/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tartu Ulikool
#5
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H01/11
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Liepaja
#11
L
31-49
31
49
-18
A09/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Ventspils
#4
L
28-46
28
46
-18
A10/11
Latvia-Estonian League
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
40-39
40
39
+1
H19/11
Latvia-Estonian League
73.6Avg total
33.5Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.740.476.1-4.730%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.839.977.7-2.133%-
Last 30 away (15)33.640.974.5-7.327%-
Last 10 (10)33.540.173.6-6.630%-
Last 5 (5)35.242.677.8-7.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)32.641.373.9-8.620%-
vs Similar (7)41.739.080.7+2.743%-
vs Weaker (3)42.037.779.7+4.367%-
This opponent (BK Ogre) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
BK Ogretheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BK Ogre: 77.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.4 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.321.6
52.3%
50.5%43.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.16.8
30.8%
32.1%20.4
🏀 Free throws18.113.5
74.6%
70.5%13.5
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tallinna Kalevtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tallinna Kalev: 65.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.4 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.916.3
41.9%
50.5%32.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.26.6
27.3%
32.1%19.8
🏀 Free throws18.012.9
71.7%
70.5%12.9
They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
BK Ogre
WLWWLLWWWL
Tallinna Kalev
LLLLLLLLWW
#7
League position
#16
+1.6
Net rating
-21.6
102.8
Offensive rating
87.5
101.2
Defensive rating
109.1
50.2%
Effective FG%
41.5%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
20.8%
Turnover %
21.8%
32.0%
Off. rebound %
30.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.29
30.8%
3-point %
27.3%
68.7%
Assist %
54.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence102.8 · 87.5Defence101.2 · 109.1Shooting50.2% · 41.5%3-point %30.8% · 27.3%Ball care20.8% · 21.8%Off. rebounds32.0% · 30.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 20%
■ BK Ogre   ■ Tallinna Kalev
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
BK Ogre wins
1
Tallinna Kalev wins
BK Ogrelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/23HViimsi88-71
10/11/23ABC Kalev/Cramo51-106
04/11/23APrometey85-76
27/10/23AValmiera Glass Via94-73
21/10/23HTartu Ulikool65-80
18/10/23AKeila KK71-80
14/10/23HBK Liepaja86-62
11/10/23AViimsi91-59
07/10/23ALatvijas Universitate78-64
04/10/23HVEF Riga74-94
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/11/23HLatvijas Universitate75-83
10/11/23AVentspils66-93
09/11/23ABK Liepaja63-87
01/11/23HTartu Ulikool63-77
29/10/23HTal Tech73-82
21/10/23ARigas Zelli50-78
13/10/23ABC Kalev/Cramo51-98
08/10/23HViimsi56-69
30/09/23HValmiera Glass Via87-79
22/09/23ARapla78-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BK Ogre
Latvia-Estonian League 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW55%
HomeLLWLW40%
AwayWLWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %55%40%67%
Points / game78.077.678.3
Allowed / game76.576.876.3
Point differential+1.5+0.8+2.0
Avg total154.5154.4154.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%40%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %9%20%0%
Tallinna Kalev
Latvia-Estonian League 2023
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL20%
HomeWLLLL20%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %20%20%20%
Points / game66.270.861.6
Allowed / game81.878.085.6
Point differential-15.6-7.2-24.0
Avg total148.0148.8147.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 BC Kalev/Cramo880100%94.265.5+28.8
2 Prometey87188%88.268.8+19.5
3 Rigas Zelli129375%79.969.0+10.9
4 Tal Tech118373%81.076.4+4.6
5 VEF Riga107370%84.869.7+15.1
6 Tartu Ulikool117464%78.170.4+7.7
7 Ventspils117464%92.185.3+6.8
8 BK Ogre116555%78.076.5+1.5
9 BK Liepaja126650%81.881.8+0.0
10 Parnu105550%73.775.6-1.9
11 Keila KK115645%81.282.3-1.1
12 Rapla123925%74.278.4-4.2
13 Viimsi1331023%66.287.0-20.8
14 Latvijas Universitate1431121%69.185.3-16.2
15 Tallinna Kalev102820%66.281.8-15.6
16 Valmiera Glass Via1221017%74.087.2-13.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
BK Ogre25222925101
Tallinna Kalev2115201773
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