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BMS Herlev vs Holbaek-Stenhus Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 80-88
Projected total 167.7
Scheduled
Position#12
Record1-10
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.4
Allowed / game97.0
BMS Herlev
Denmark
Vs
23%
77%
■ BMS 23%■ HOLB 77%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.6/10
Around normal
5.8/10
Above normal
Holbaek-Stenhus
Denmark
Position#7
Record4-6
FormLWLWL
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game87.4
DenmarkBasketligaen· Herlevhallen
Other2026-27
Meetings · BMS Herlev v Holbaek-Stenhus
17 Nov 2026
BMS v HOLB
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
BMS 65
HOLB80
06 Oct 2025
BMS 92
HOLB89
Sections
Game preview & prediction

BMS Herlev will host Holbaek-Stenhus on 17 November 2026 in the Basketligaen, and the Pythia model clearly favours the visitor with a 77% chance of victory, reflecting Holbaek-Stenhus's 4-6 record, 77.1 points per game and 87.4 allowed per game compared with Herlev's 1-10 record, 74.4 points per game and 97.0 allowed per game. Herlev has gone 0-6 at home, averaging 77.3 points and conceding 102.7, while Holbaek-Stenhus has been 2-4 on the road, scoring 74.0 and allowing 87.5. In the last five outings Herlev has lost all five, including a 78-91 defeat to Svendborg, whereas Holbaek-Stenhus has won two of its last five, notably a 84-81 away win over Gladsaxe. Their head-to-head record stands at 1-2 in favour of Holbaek-Stenhus, with the most recent meeting ending 80-77 for the visitors on 1 October 2026. Pythia projects a final score of 80-88, a total of 167.7 points, and a 23% probability that Herlev will cover the line; the game carries a 4% chance of overtime. The matchup will hinge on whether Herlev can stop Holbaek-Stenhus's recent offensive surge.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BMS Herlev win
22.9%fair 4.36
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Holbaek-Stenhus win
77.1%fair 1.30
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BMS HerlevDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHerlev
Date
Competition
Gladsaxe
#9
L
70-102
70
102
-32
49avg 67
H23/09
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
L
95-106
95
106
-11
85avg 67
H26/09
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
77-80
77
80
-3
63avg 67
A01/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
55-117
55
117
-62
33avg 67
H10/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
71-93
71
93
-22
55avg 67
A18/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
67-105
67
105
-38
55avg 67
A24/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
L
99-107 OT
99
107
-8
89avg 67
H30/10
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
L
67-93
67
93
-26
no box
H04/11
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
57-98
57
98
-41
no box
A08/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
78-91
78
91
-13
no box
H12/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
10-33
13-21
25-27
25-31
18-36
27-16
25-23
26-21
12-16
16-25
23-18
17-27
12-35
11-30
15-25
22-18
14-31
23-19
12-25
20-19
19-34
14-27
14-25
25-23
24-25
17-17
23-24
17-12
20-18
11-33
19-30
11-28
12-24
17-26
17-20
25-20
11-23
16-22
26-26
172.8Avg total
73.6Scored
99.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)74.497.0171.4-22.69%
Season at home (6)77.3102.7180.0-25.30%
Season away (5)70.890.2161.0-19.420%
Last 10 (10)73.699.2172.8-25.60%
Last 5 (5)73.698.8172.4-25.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)75.096.6171.6-21.612%
vs Similar (5)82.479.0161.4+3.460%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Randers
#5
L
84-100
84
100
-16
67avg 71
H17/09
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
56-117
56
117
-61
40avg 71
A24/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
75-86
75
86
-11
61avg 71
A26/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
80-77
80
77
+3
74avg 71
H01/10
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
88-67
88
67
+21
86avg 71
H10/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
83-97
83
97
-14
71avg 71
A15/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
68-64
68
64
+4
60avg 71
A24/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
75-105
75
105
-30
60avg 71
H30/10
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
W
84-81
84
81
+3
no box
A04/11
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
L
78-80
78
80
-2
no box
A06/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
32-33
12-26
18-20
21-27
10-32
10-27
15-31
29-20
20-22
16-22
10-22
21-26
16-12
25-16
18-23
15-14
24-21
21-14
28-18
18-23
24-43
0-0
41-31
11-10
29-14
17-19
11-21
8-29
23-18
29-27
15-31
24-18
19-24
21-19
20-20
18-18
19-17
24-27
17-18
164.5Avg total
77.1Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)77.187.4164.5-10.340%
Season at home (4)81.887.2169.0-5.550%
Season away (6)74.087.5161.5-13.533%
Last 10 (10)77.187.4164.5-10.340%
Last 5 (5)77.685.4163.0-7.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)76.5102.5179.0-25.98%
vs Similar (16)86.182.8168.8+3.350%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)80.077.0157.0+3.0100%
This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
52.3%
Under 166.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
40.3%
Under 171.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176.5
Over 176.5
29.2%
Under 176.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

BMS Herlev total 82
Over 82
40.0%
Under 82
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BMS Herlev total 86
Over 86
25.9%
Under 86
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BMS Herlev total 90
Over 90
15.2%
Under 90
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holbaek-Stenhus total 81.5
Over 81.5
74.3%
Under 81.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holbaek-Stenhus total 85.5
Over 85.5
60.0%
Under 85.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holbaek-Stenhus total 89.5
Over 89.5
44.3%
Under 89.5
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread BMS Herlev -3
BMS -3
16.5%
HOLB +3
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
BMS
No market prices yet.
HOLB
No market prices yet.
Spread BMS Herlev 0
BMS 0
22.9%
HOLB 0
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
BMS
No market prices yet.
HOLB
No market prices yet.
Spread BMS Herlev +3
BMS +3
29.8%
HOLB -3
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
BMS
No market prices yet.
HOLB
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-15-8+0+8+15Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -12.3-12.3Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -7.1-7.1Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -4.4-4.4Q4: -4.2-4.2
-15-8+0+8+15Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: -1.9-1.9Q2Q2: -12.3-12.3Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -7.1-7.1Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -4.4-4.4Q4: -4.2-4.2
BMS HerlevHolbaek-Stenhus
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BMS HerlevLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gladsaxe
#9
L
32-54
32
54
-22
H23/09
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
L
43-67
43
67
-24
H26/09
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A01/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
29-62
29
62
-33
H10/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A18/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A24/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H30/10
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
W
37-30
37
30
+7
H04/11
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
23-52
23
52
-29
A08/11
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H12/11
Basketligaen
85.7Avg total
36.2Scored
49.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.446.686.0-7.233%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.346.886.1-7.438%-
Last 30 away (14)39.446.485.9-7.029%-
Last 10 (10)36.249.585.7-13.330%-
Last 5 (5)36.845.282.0-8.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)38.848.487.1-9.624%-
vs Similar (5)42.437.880.2+4.680%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Randers
#5
D
54-54
54
54
+0
H17/09
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
31-59
31
59
-28
A24/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A26/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H01/10
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H10/10
Basketligaen
Horsens
#3
L
42-66
42
66
-24
A15/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
40-24
40
24
+16
A24/10
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
31-47
31
47
-16
H30/10
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A04/11
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
W
37-35
37
35
+2
A06/11
Basketligaen
84.5Avg total
40.3Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.845.085.7-4.240%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.345.386.6-4.036%-
Last 30 away (16)40.344.785.0-4.444%-
Last 10 (10)40.344.284.5-3.950%-
Last 5 (5)38.642.881.4-4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)41.151.592.6-10.523%-
vs Similar (16)40.840.180.8+0.756%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)37.038.075.0-1.00%-
This opponent (BMS Herlev) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
BMS Herlevtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

BMS Herlev: 78.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.919.2
46.9%
55.2%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.19.0
32.0%
31.2%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.813.2
63.5%
68.0%13.2
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 79.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.421.5
51.9%
55.2%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.68.1
34.3%
31.2%24.3
🏀 Free throws18.911.8
62.4%
68.0%11.8
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
BMS Herlev
LLLLLLLLLL
Holbaek-Stenhus
LWLWLWWLLL
#12
League position
#7
-13.1
Net rating
-9.7
81.6
Offensive rating
86.3
94.7
Defensive rating
96.0
47.4%
Effective FG%
51.8%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
55.1%
18.3%
Turnover %
20.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.0%
3-point %
34.3%
57.8%
Assist %
44.9%
0%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence81.6 · 86.3Defence94.7 · 96.0Shooting47.4% · 51.8%3-point %32.0% · 34.3%Ball care18.3% · 20.4%Free throws0.30 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)0% · 40%
■ BMS Herlev   ■ Holbaek-Stenhus
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
BMS Herlev wins
2
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
DateGameScore
01/10/26Holbaek-Stenhus v BMS Herlev80-77
01/04/26BMS Herlev v Holbaek-Stenhus65-80
06/10/25BMS Herlev v Holbaek-Stenhus92-89
BMS Herlevlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HSvendborg78-91
08/11/26AHorsens57-98
04/11/26HCopenhagen67-93
30/10/26HVaerlose99-107 OT
24/10/26ABakken Bears67-105
18/10/26ARanders71-93
10/10/26HTeam FOG Naestved55-117
01/10/26AHolbaek-Stenhus77-80
26/09/26HVejen95-106
23/09/26HGladsaxe70-102
Holbaek-Stenhuslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/26AVejen78-80
04/11/26AGladsaxe84-81
30/10/26HBakken Bears75-105
24/10/26AVaerlose68-64
15/10/26AHorsens83-97
10/10/26HBears Academy88-67
01/10/26HBMS Herlev80-77
26/09/26ASvendborg75-86
24/09/26ATeam FOG Naestved56-117
17/09/26HRanders84-100

📊 11. Overall Statistics

BMS Herlev
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL9%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %9%0%20%
Points / game74.477.370.8
Allowed / game97.0102.790.2
Point differential-22.6-25.3-19.4
Avg total171.4180.0161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %9%17%0%
Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL40%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayLLWWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game77.181.874.0
Allowed / game87.487.287.5
Point differential-10.3-5.5-13.5
Avg total164.5169.0161.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Team FOG Naestved1110191%99.072.6+26.4
2 Bakken Bears87188%102.076.6+25.4
3 Horsens108280%89.277.6+11.6
4 Svendborg108280%90.679.7+10.9
5 Randers107370%95.686.0+9.6
6 Copenhagen95456%84.081.6+2.4
7 Holbaek-Stenhus104640%77.187.4-10.3
8 Vejen93633%80.993.6-12.7
9 Gladsaxe103730%79.488.9-9.5
10 Vaerlose102820%78.091.7-13.7
11 Bears Academy101910%78.892.6-13.8
12 BMS Herlev111109%74.497.0-22.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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