BMS Herlev will host Svendborg on 12 November 2026 in the Basketligaen, and the Pythia model names Svendborg the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because of a 7-2 season record, 90.6 points per game and only 79.9 allowed, while Herlev struggles at 1-9, 74.0 points per game and 97.6 allowed. Herlev has gone 0-5 at home, scoring 77.2 and conceding 105.0, and has lost its last five games, including a 57-98 defeat away to Horsens, a 67-93 loss at home to Copenhagen and a 99-107 loss at home to Vaerlose. Svendborg, meanwhile, has a 3-1 road record, averaging 93.5 points and allowing 84.2, and has won four of its last five games, notably a 103-98 away win over Copenhagen and a 86-59 home victory over Vaerlose. Their only prior meeting ended with Svendborg beating Herlev 94-72 on 1 November 2025. Pythia projects a 70-99 score, a total of 168.9, and a 48% chance of the over on the 169.5 line, with no overtime probability. The game will likely finish with Svendborg covering the spread and the total.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (10) | 74.0 | 97.6 | 171.6 | -23.6 | 10% |
| Season at home (5) | 77.2 | 105.0 | 182.2 | -27.8 | 0% |
| Season away (5) | 70.8 | 90.2 | 161.0 | -19.4 | 20% |
| Last 10 (10) | 74.0 | 97.6 | 171.6 | -23.6 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 72.2 | 99.2 | 171.4 | -27.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (24) | 74.9 | 96.9 | 171.8 | -22.0 | 12% |
| vs Similar (6) | 84.0 | 80.7 | 164.7 | +3.3 | 67% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (9) | 90.6 | 79.9 | 170.4 | +10.7 | 78% |
| Season at home (5) | 88.2 | 76.4 | 164.6 | +11.8 | 80% |
| Season away (4) | 93.5 | 84.2 | 177.8 | +9.2 | 75% |
| Last 10 (10) | 91.8 | 79.7 | 171.5 | +12.1 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 92.2 | 79.0 | 171.2 | +13.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 84.0 | 77.7 | 161.7 | +6.3 | 67% |
| vs Similar (8) | 83.8 | 90.2 | 174.0 | -6.5 | 25% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (19) | 92.3 | 74.5 | 166.8 | +17.7 | 84% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 84.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.0 | 46.5 | 86.6 | -6.5 | 37% | 60% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.6 | 46.6 | 87.2 | -6.1 | 44% | 62% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 39.4 | 46.4 | 85.9 | -7.0 | 29% | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.7 | 49.0 | 86.7 | -11.3 | 40% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 46.4 | 83.2 | -9.6 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (24) | 38.9 | 48.6 | 87.5 | -9.7 | 25% | 67% |
| vs Similar (6) | 44.7 | 38.3 | 83.0 | +6.3 | 83% | 33% |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 84.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 44.8 | 40.1 | 84.9 | +4.7 | 57% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 43.9 | 36.8 | 80.7 | +7.1 | 59% | 29% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 46.1 | 44.4 | 90.5 | +1.7 | 54% | 62% |
| Last 10 (10) | 45.6 | 40.3 | 85.9 | +5.3 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.6 | 39.6 | 85.2 | +6.0 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 36.0 | 41.7 | 77.7 | -5.7 | 33% | 0% |
| vs Similar (8) | 43.4 | 44.1 | 87.5 | -0.8 | 50% | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (19) | 46.8 | 38.2 | 85.0 | +8.7 | 63% | 53% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svendborg over 87.5 | 88.4% | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | - | - | +8.9pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 88.5 | 86.3% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 92.5 | 75.5% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Lost |
| Svendborg over 85.5 | 91.9% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 89.5 | 84.0% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 91.5 | 78.6% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Lost |
| Svendborg -18.5 | 83.8% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Lost |
| Svendborg over 81.5 | 96.3% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 83.5 | 94.5% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 79.5 | 97.7% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Won |
| Svendborg -23.5 | 71.1% | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.39 | - | - | +7.2pp | Lost |
| Svendborg -20.5 | 79.3% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +7.1pp | Lost |
| Svendborg over 77.5 | 98.6% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Svendborg over 78.5 | 98.2% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Svendborg win | 99.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | +7.0pp | Won |
| Svendborg -21.5 | 76.7% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Lost |
| Svendborg -22.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +6.8pp | Lost |
| Svendborg over 93.5 | 72.3% | 1.39 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.36 | - | - | +6.7pp | Lost |
| Svendborg -8.5 | 96.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Svendborg -13.5 | 91.9% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +5.2pp | Lost |
| BMS Herlev under 87.5 | 96.3% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.8pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 85.5 | 94.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +4.2pp | Won |
| Over 143.5 | 94.4% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +4.1pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 89.5 | 97.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +3.9pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 79.5 | 84.2% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +3.7pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 83.5 | 91.9% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 75.5 | 72.6% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Lost |
| Under 193.5 | 93.7% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +3.5pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 80.5 | 86.5% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | +3.4pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 81.5 | 88.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +3.0pp | Won |
| Over 148.5 | 89.9% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| BMS Herlev under 77.5 | 78.9% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Lost |
| Over 153.5 | 83.2% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +2.7pp | Won |
| Under 188.5 | 88.9% | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Won |
| Over 158.5 | 74.2% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +2.3pp | Won |
| Under 183.5 | 81.9% | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | - | - | - | +1.4pp | Won |
| Under 178.5 | 72.6% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +0.7pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.9 | 19.2 | 55.2% | 38.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 28.1 | 9.0 | 31.2% | 27.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 20.8 | 13.2 | 68.0% | 13.2 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 41.4 | 24.1 | 55.2% | 48.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 26.5 | 8.1 | 31.2% | 24.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 25.3 | 18.3 | 68.0% | 18.3 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Horsens | 57-98 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Copenhagen | 67-93 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Vaerlose | 99-107 OT |
| 24/10/26 | A | Bakken Bears | 67-105 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Randers | 71-93 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Team FOG Naestved | 55-117 |
| 01/10/26 | A | Holbaek-Stenhus | 77-80 |
| 26/09/26 | H | Vejen | 95-106 |
| 23/09/26 | H | Gladsaxe | 70-102 |
| 20/09/26 | A | Bears Academy | 82-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | H | Vaerlose | 86-59 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Copenhagen | 103-98 OT |
| 23/10/26 | H | Bears Academy | 97-82 |
| 15/10/26 | A | Team FOG Naestved | 83-86 |
| 07/10/26 | A | Gladsaxe | 92-70 |
| 02/10/26 | H | Vejen | 102-74 |
| 26/09/26 | H | Holbaek-Stenhus | 86-75 |
| 23/09/26 | A | Randers | 96-83 |
| 17/09/26 | H | Horsens | 70-92 |
| 14/05/26 | H | Horsens | 103-78 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 10% |
| Home | LLLLL | 0% |
| Away | WLLLL | 20% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Win % | 10% | 0% | 20% |
| Points / game | 74.0 | 77.2 | 70.8 |
| Allowed / game | 97.6 | 105.0 | 90.2 |
| Point differential | -23.6 | -27.8 | -19.4 |
| Avg total | 171.6 | 182.2 | 161.0 |
| Over 168.5 | 50% | 80% | 20% |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 10% | 20% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 78% |
| Home | LWWWW | 80% |
| Away | WWLW | 75% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Win % | 78% | 80% | 75% |
| Points / game | 90.6 | 88.2 | 93.5 |
| Allowed / game | 79.9 | 76.4 | 84.2 |
| Point differential | +10.7 | +11.8 | +9.2 |
| Avg total | 170.4 | 164.6 | 177.8 |
| Over 168.5 | 56% | 40% | 75% |
| Win by 10+ | 67% | 80% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | - | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 11% | 0% | 25% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 100% | 100.5 | 70.1 | +30.4 | |
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 102.0 | 76.6 | +25.4 | |
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 80% | 89.2 | 77.6 | +11.6 | |
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 90.6 | 79.9 | +10.7 | |
| 5 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 67% | 95.3 | 86.2 | +9.1 | |
| 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 56% | 84.0 | 81.6 | +2.4 | |
| 7 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 40% | 77.1 | 87.4 | -10.3 | |
| 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 80.9 | 93.6 | -12.7 | |
| 9 | Gladsaxe | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30% | 79.4 | 88.9 | -9.5 |
| 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 20% | 78.0 | 91.7 | -13.7 | |
| 11 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 10% | 78.8 | 92.6 | -13.8 | |
| 12 | BMS Herlev | 10 | 1 | 9 | 10% | 74.0 | 97.6 | -23.6 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMS Herlev | 25 | 11 | 16 | 26 | 78 |
| 20 | 23 | 22 | 26 | 91 |
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