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Braga vs Ovarense Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 18:45
Final 74-86
20-25 13-32 28-19 13-10
Position#7
Record4-6
FormLWLLL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game83.4
Braga
Portugal
vs
Ovarense 🏆
Portugal
Position#4
Record7-3
FormWLWWL
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game77.4
PortugalLPBRound 11· Sports Pavilion Lamacaes
Other2025-26
Meetings · Braga v Ovarense
29 Dec 2026
BRAG v OVAR
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
BRAG74
OVAR86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Braga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Ovarense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BragaPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBraga
Date
Competition
CA Queluz
#9
L
58-66
58
66
-8
48avg 72
H11/10
LPB
Esgueira
#8
L
79-103
79
103
-24
69avg 72
H18/10
LPB
Galitos Barreiro
#12
W
102-93
102
93
+9
102avg 72
A26/10
LPB
Vasco Da Gama
#11
W
84-74
84
74
+10
81avg 72
A01/11
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
66-63
66
63
+3
74avg 72
H09/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
74-88
74
88
-14
67avg 72
A15/11
LPB
Imortal
#6
W
83-80
83
80
+3
78avg 72
H06/12
LPB
Vitoria
#10
L
72-82
72
82
-10
61avg 72
A20/12
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
63-87
63
87
-24
44avg 72
H28/12
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
79-98
79
98
-19
67avg 72
A03/01
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-21
14-23
16-10
19-12
24-19
20-23
19-35
16-26
22-16
22-27
31-26
27-24
19-22
25-12
19-17
21-23
13-22
24-11
13-19
16-11
18-27
24-18
16-24
16-19
22-21
11-26
23-15
27-18
16-25
15-19
18-17
23-21
10-17
18-26
14-30
21-14
21-25
17-30
18-26
23-17
159.4Avg total
76.0Scored
83.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)76.083.4159.4-7.440%
Season at home (5)69.879.8149.6-10.040%
Season away (5)82.287.0169.2-4.840%
Last 10 (10)76.083.4159.4-7.440%
Last 5 (5)74.287.0161.2-12.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)70.584.0154.5-13.525%
vs Similar (4)73.082.8155.8-9.825%
vs Weaker (22)82.073.0155.1+9.073%
This opponent (Ovarense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OvarensePortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOvarense
Date
Competition
Esgueira
#8
W
81-75
81
75
+6
85avg 70
H04/10
LPB
Vasco Da Gama
#11
W
83-75
83
75
+8
57avg 70
H11/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
87-82
87
82
+5
83avg 70
H18/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
64-78
64
78
-14
42avg 70
A01/11
LPB
Imortal
#6
W
72-71
72
71
+1
62avg 70
H08/11
LPB
Vitoria
#10
W
94-77
94
77
+17
89avg 70
A15/11
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
70-96
70
96
-26
67avg 70
H06/12
LPB
CA Queluz
#9
W
84-82
84
82
+2
79avg 70
A27/12
LPB
Galitos Barreiro
#12
W
88-64
88
64
+24
79avg 70
H03/01
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
62-74
62
74
-12
46avg 70
A06/01
LPB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-19
24-20
18-25
18-11
16-21
21-18
23-11
23-25
20-19
27-23
25-20
15-20
13-28
21-15
14-18
16-17
21-25
12-20
21-13
18-13
25-16
18-24
25-20
26-17
16-22
23-24
11-29
20-21
23-15
16-26
26-24
19-17
19-15
25-23
25-16
19-10
23-15
11-28
17-14
11-17
155.9Avg total
78.5Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)78.577.4155.9+1.170%
Season at home (6)80.277.2157.3+3.083%
Season away (4)76.077.8153.8-1.850%
Last 10 (10)78.577.4155.9+1.170%
Last 5 (5)79.678.6158.2+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)74.687.5162.1-12.920%
vs Similar (7)80.677.6158.1+3.071%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)84.972.9157.8+12.0100%
This opponent (Braga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +1.7+1.7
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +1.7+1.7
BragaOvarense
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BragaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
CA Queluz
#9
L
23-44
23
44
-21
H11/10
LPB
Esgueira
#8
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H18/10
LPB
Galitos Barreiro
#12
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A26/10
LPB
Vasco Da Gama
#11
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A01/11
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H09/11
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A15/11
LPB
Imortal
#6
L
33-47
33
47
-14
H06/12
LPB
Vitoria
#10
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A20/12
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
28-43
28
43
-15
H28/12
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
38-55
38
55
-17
A03/01
LPB
79.4Avg total
36.4Scored
43.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.138.776.8-0.650%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.238.774.9-2.540%-
Last 30 away (15)40.038.778.7+1.360%-
Last 10 (10)36.443.079.4-6.640%-
Last 5 (5)34.446.881.2-12.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)36.244.080.2-7.825%-
vs Similar (4)32.844.277.0-11.525%-
vs Weaker (22)39.436.776.1+2.759%-
This opponent (Ovarense) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
OvarenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Esgueira
#8
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H04/10
LPB
Vasco Da Gama
#11
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H11/10
LPB
Oliveirense
#5
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H18/10
LPB
Sporting CP
#3
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A01/11
LPB
Imortal
#6
L
33-45
33
45
-12
H08/11
LPB
Vitoria
#10
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A15/11
LPB
Benfica
#1
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H06/12
LPB
CA Queluz
#9
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A27/12
LPB
Galitos Barreiro
#12
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H03/01
LPB
FC Porto
#2
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A06/01
LPB
81.1Avg total
39.5Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.940.579.4-1.737%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.440.177.4-2.736%-
Last 30 away (16)40.240.981.1-0.838%-
Last 10 (10)39.541.681.1-2.140%-
Last 5 (5)39.841.681.4-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)37.141.678.7-4.527%-
vs Similar (7)41.738.380.0+3.457%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)39.640.580.1-0.938%-
This opponent (Braga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bragatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Braga: 75.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.517.1
49.6%
52.7%34.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.88.8
27.7%
32.4%26.4
🏀 Free throws19.514.4
73.8%
70.4%14.4
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Ovarensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ovarense: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 82.8 points a game
49%
32%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.819.5
54.5%
52.7%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.68.7
29.4%
32.4%26.1
🏀 Free throws16.911.2
66.3%
70.4%11.2
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Braga
LLLWLWWWLL
Ovarense
LWWLWWLWWW
#7
League position
#4
-9.6
Net rating
+2.8
97.1
Offensive rating
102.4
106.7
Defensive rating
99.6
45.7%
Effective FG%
49.8%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
46.0%
20.4%
Turnover %
18.2%
33.1%
Off. rebound %
30.0%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.26
27.7%
3-point %
29.4%
71.0%
Assist %
64.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence97.1 · 102.4Defence106.7 · 99.6Shooting45.7% · 49.8%3-point %27.7% · 29.4%Ball care20.4% · 18.2%Off. rebounds33.1% · 30.0%Free throws0.29 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Braga   ■ Ovarense
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Braga wins
0
Ovarense wins
No previous meetings.
Bragalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26AFC Porto79-98
28/12/25HBenfica63-87
20/12/25AVitoria72-82
06/12/25HImortal83-80
15/11/25ASporting CP74-88
09/11/25HOliveirense66-63
01/11/25AVasco Da Gama84-74
26/10/25AGalitos Barreiro102-93
18/10/25HEsgueira79-103
11/10/25HCA Queluz58-66
Ovarenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/26AFC Porto62-74
03/01/26HGalitos Barreiro88-64
27/12/25ACA Queluz84-82
06/12/25HBenfica70-96
15/11/25AVitoria94-77
08/11/25HImortal72-71
01/11/25ASporting CP64-78
18/10/25HOliveirense87-82
11/10/25HVasco Da Gama83-75
04/10/25HEsgueira81-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Braga
LPB 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL40%
HomeLLWWL40%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %40%40%40%
Points / game76.069.882.2
Allowed / game83.479.887.0
Point differential-7.4-10.0-4.8
Avg total159.4149.6169.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Ovarense
LPB 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL70%
HomeWWWLW83%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %70%83%50%
Points / game78.580.276.0
Allowed / game77.477.277.8
Point differential+1.1+3.0-1.8
Avg total155.9157.3153.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%17%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Benfica10100100%96.971.0+25.9
2 Sporting CP119282%88.576.6+11.9
3 Ovarense107370%78.577.4+1.1
4 Oliveirense117464%86.481.2+5.2
5 FC Porto117464%89.785.2+4.5
6 Esgueira115645%87.590.5-3.0
7 Braga104640%76.083.4-7.4
8 Imortal114736%85.084.6+0.4
9 CA Queluz114736%82.084.5-2.5
10 Vitoria113827%81.988.0-6.1
11 Galitos Barreiro102820%84.699.9-15.3
12 Vasco Da Gama112918%80.694.9-14.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Braga2013281374
Ovarense2532191086
← all games of the day
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