Colorado State faces Montana State in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the model favouring the Rams who are expected to win 59% of the time and 41% for the Bobcats, a projected score of 74-71 and a total of 144.8 points; the Rams are also the 59% favourite to cover the -11.0 spread, a 23% chance to cover, and a 41% chance the game will go over the 148.0 line, with a 5% overtime probability. Colorado State has played 5 games in the season, winning 3 and losing 2, scoring an average of 74 points and allowing 71, while Montana State has the same record of 3-2, averaging 71 points scored and 74 allowed; Colorado State's last five games include a 67-63 home win over Fresno State and a 62-71 away loss to San Diego State, whereas Montana State's recent results feature a 76-65 away win over Northern Arizona and a 82-61 home victory over Sacramento State. The teams have met before, with their most recent encounter recorded as a 74-71 game. Colorado State's 59% win probability and 23% chance to cover the spread suggest a comfortable margin, yet the 41% over probability keeps the total intriguing, and the 5% overtime chance adds a small but real possibility of extra play.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colorado State winWon
59.5%fair 1.68
Best odds1.17
Implied83.9%
Edge-24.4pp
Montana State winLost
40.5%fair 2.47
Best odds5.99
Implied16.1%
Edge+24.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Colorado State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Over 143
Over 143
53.7%
@ 1.50-8.8pp
Under 143
46.3%
@ 2.50+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Over 148
Over 148
41.4%
@ 1.95-8.1pp
Under 148
58.6%
@ 1.89+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
30.0%
@ 2.65-5.0pp
Under 153
70.0%
@ 1.43+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Colorado State total 75Actual: Colorado State over 75
Over 75
44.8%
Under 75
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colorado State total 79 · main lineActual: Colorado State over 79
Over 79
29.6%
@ 1.85-20.7pp
Under 79
70.4%
@ 1.87+20.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Colorado State total 83Actual: Colorado State over 83
Over 83
17.4%
Under 83
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana State total 64Actual: Montana State over 64
Over 64
75.9%
Under 64
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana State total 68 · main lineActual: Montana State over 68
Over 68
61.7%
@ 1.85+11.3pp
Under 68
38.3%
@ 1.88-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Montana State total 72Actual: Montana State over 72
Over 72
45.8%
Under 72
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Colorado State -14Actual: Montana State +14
COLO -14
15.5%
@ 2.50-22.0pp
MONT +14
84.5%
@ 1.50+22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Bet365
2.50
MONT
Bet365
1.50
Spread Colorado State -11 · main lineActual: Montana State +11
COLO -11
22.6%
@ 1.95-28.0pp
MONT +11
77.4%
@ 1.94+28.0pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.88
MONT
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Spread Colorado State -8Actual: Colorado State -8
COLO -8
31.8%
@ 1.57-27.1pp
MONT +8
68.2%
@ 2.25+27.1pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Bet365
1.57
MONT
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Colorado StateMontana State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Montana State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Montana StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland State
#87
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A31/01
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H06/02
NCAA
East. Washington
#261
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H08/02
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
44-34
44
34
+10
A15/02
NCAA
Weber State
#201
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A20/02
NCAA
Idaho State
#284
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A21/02
NCAA
Portland State
#87
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H27/02
NCAA
Sacramento State
#324
W
45-28
45
28
+17
H28/02
NCAA
Northern Arizona
#335
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A03/03
NCAA
Idaho
#136
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H09/03
NCAA
76.9Avg total
39.5Scored
37.4Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 77.5
Last 30 (30)
39.3
38.0
77.3
+1.2
60%
50%
Last 30 at home (14)
40.4
35.9
76.3
+4.6
71%
36%
Last 30 away (16)
38.2
39.9
78.2
-1.7
50%
62%
Last 10 (10)
39.5
37.4
76.9
+2.1
50%
30%
Last 5 (5)
41.2
37.2
78.4
+4.0
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)
38.5
35.0
73.5
+3.5
100%
50%
vs Similar (13)
39.2
40.4
79.6
-1.2
38%
54%
vs Weaker (14)
38.9
36.6
75.4
+2.3
71%
43%
This opponent (Colorado State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Colorado State win
COLO win
no forecast
@ 1.38
MONT win
no forecast
@ 3.05
2nd half Spread Colorado State -4.5 · main lineActual: Montana State +4.5
COLO -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
MONT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Over/Under 77.5 · main lineActual: Under 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Colorado State (regulation)
COLO
no forecast
@ 1.42
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
MONT
no forecast
@ 3.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Montana State +10
74.6%
2.04
Pinnacle
2.12
Bet365
1.95
-
-
-
+29.4pp
Push
Montana State +9.5
72.4%
2.10
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.00
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
Montana State +10.5
75.3%
1.91
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
+28.2pp
Won
Montana State +11
77.4%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+28.0pp
Won
Montana State +9
71.5%
2.10
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Lost
Montana State +11.5
78.0%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.71
+26.1pp
Won
Montana State +12
80.0%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathon Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.66
-
-
+25.6pp
Won
Montana State +12.5
80.5%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.62
-
+23.8pp
Won
Montana State +13
82.4%
1.60
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Montana State +13.5
82.8%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+22.3pp
Won
Colorado State under 80.5
74.7%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Lost
Montana State +14
84.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Montana State +14.5
84.8%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+22.0pp
Won
Colorado State under 79.5
71.4%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
+21.4pp
Lost
Montana State +15.5
86.7%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 79
70.4%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Montana State +15
86.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Montana State +16.5
88.4%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Colorado State under 81.5
77.7%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Lost
Montana State +16
88.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Montana State +17.5
89.9%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Montana State +17
89.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Colorado State under 83.5
83.1%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
Montana State +19
92.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Montana State +18.5
91.3%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Colorado State under 82.5
80.5%
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.45
1xBet
1.44
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Montana State +19.5
92.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Won
Montana State +18
91.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 84.5
85.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Won
Colorado State under 85.5
87.5%
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Colorado State under 86.5
89.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Montana State +20.5
93.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Colorado State under 88.5
92.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Colorado State under 89.5
93.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Montana State over 64.5
73.5%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Montana State over 62.5
79.5%
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Won
Colorado State under 90.5
94.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Montana State over 65.5
70.2%
1.49
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Montana State over 63.5
76.6%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Montana State over 60.5
84.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Montana State over 61.5
82.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 154
72.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Under 153.5
70.6%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Montana State over 59.5
86.8%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Montana State over 56.5
92.1%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Under 154.5
72.6%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Under 155
74.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Montana State over 55.5
93.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Montana State over 57.5
90.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Montana State over 58.5
88.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 155.5
74.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Lost
Under 172.5
94.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Under 157.5
78.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Under 171.5
94.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Under 167.5
91.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 162.5
85.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
90.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Under 156.5
76.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Under 161.5
84.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Over 121.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 122.5
91.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Montana State under 83.5
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Over 126.5
86.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.2pp
Won
Over 127.5
85.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Montana State under 81.5
84.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Colorado State over 62.5
86.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-5.2pp
Won
Colorado State +9.5
85.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Colorado State over 63.5
84.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Montana State under 77.5
73.6%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Won
Over 131.5
78.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Montana State under 79.5
79.4%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Montana State under 78.5
76.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
Colorado State over 64.5
81.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
76.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Colorado State over 65.5
78.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Colorado State over 66.5
76.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-12.0pp
Won
Colorado State over 67.5
72.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Won
Colorado State +4.5
72.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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