Estela vs Palencia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Oct 2025

Tip-off: 17:00

Final 58-107

11-28 13-32 24-22 10-25

Position#12

Record1-1

FormWWWLW

Points / game79.5

Allowed / game89.0

Estela

Palencia 🏆

Position#3

Record2-0

FormWLWWW

Points / game84.0

Allowed / game71.0

Primera FEBRound 3

Other2025-26

Meetings · Estela v Palencia

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estela winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Palencia winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Estela

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormEstela

Date

Competition

Obradoiro CAB

58-85

-27

17avg 66

H02/04

Primera FEB

Oviedo

#11

80-73

67avg 66

H06/04

Primera FEB

Real Valladolid

#16

88-81

81avg 66

A11/04

Primera FEB

San Pablo Burgos

74-85

-11

72avg 66

H19/04

Primera FEB

Estudiantes

76-101

101

-25

65avg 66

A22/04

Primera FEB

Ourense

#10

86-77

80avg 66

H26/04

Primera FEB

Zamora

#13

82-71

+11

78avg 66

A02/05

Primera FEB

Cartagena

84-69

+15

84avg 66

H09/05

Primera FEB

Zamora

72-96

-24

59avg 66

H27/09

Primera FEB

Obradoiro CAB

87-82

82avg 66

A04/10

Primera FEB

19-22

15-18

10-22

14-23

24-16

24-20

21-19

11-18

17-20

23-15

18-18

30-28

20-23

23-17

18-18

13-27

19-30

21-21

20-20

16-30

15-18

24-12

25-19

22-28

22-17

25-11

21-26

14-17

24-12

24-13

13-21

23-23

19-23

18-29

14-27

21-17

19-21

24-23

25-12

19-26

160.7Avg total

78.7Scored

82.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (2)	79.5	89.0	168.5	-9.5	50%
Season at home (1)	72.0	96.0	168.0	-24.0	0%
Season away (1)	87.0	82.0	169.0	+5.0	100%
Last 10 (10)	78.7	82.0	160.7	-3.3	60%
Last 5 (5)	82.2	79.0	161.2	+3.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	73.7	85.6	159.4	-11.9	26%
vs Similar (9)	83.2	78.8	162.0	+4.4	67%
vs Weaker (2)	86.0	74.5	160.5	+11.5	100%

This opponent (Palencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Palencia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPalencia

Date

Competition

Zamora

#13

77-84

-7

59avg 79

A30/03

Primera FEB

Hestia Menorca

#15

84-72

+12

72avg 79

H04/04

Primera FEB

Obradoiro CAB

76-77

-1

66avg 79

A12/04

Primera FEB

Tizona Burgos

102-79

102

+23

93avg 79

H19/04

Primera FEB

Ourense

#10

84-94

-10

72avg 79

A23/04

Primera FEB

Moron

#18

81-68

+13

74avg 79

H26/04

Primera FEB

Castello

#17

96-101 OT

101

-5

86avg 79

A02/05

Primera FEB

Real Betis

87-68

+19

82avg 79

H09/05

Primera FEB

Palmer Basket

#15

78-69

66avg 79

A28/09

Primera FEB

Cartagena

#16

90-73

+17

77avg 79

H03/10

Primera FEB

18-20

22-16

13-17

24-31

15-21

23-11

22-17

24-23

12-18

22-17

18-13

24-29

22-24

31-22

29-16

20-17

17-30

30-20

22-24

15-20

22-21

21-6

9-20

29-21

19-20

21-22

27-23

19-21

28-18

25-18

17-17

17-15

19-21

20-17

13-17

26-14

22-12

26-18

20-20

22-23

164.0Avg total

85.5Scored

78.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (2)	84.0	71.0	155.0	+13.0	100%
Season at home (1)	90.0	73.0	163.0	+17.0	100%
Season away (1)	78.0	69.0	147.0	+9.0	100%
Last 10 (10)	85.5	78.5	164.0	+7.0	60%
Last 5 (5)	86.4	75.8	162.2	+10.6	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	85.0	87.0	172.0	-2.0	0%
vs Similar (6)	85.7	83.7	169.3	+2.0	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	89.3	78.8	168.1	+10.5	78%

This opponent (Estela) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

EstelaPalencia

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.8	20.1	38.8	-1.3	30%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	20.3	19.9	40.1	+0.4	40%	-
Last 30 away (15)	17.3	20.3	37.5	-3.0	20%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.8	20.2	40.0	-0.4	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.8	18.2	38.0	+1.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	18.8	20.5	39.3	-1.7	26%	-
vs Similar (9)	18.6	17.9	36.4	+0.7	44%	-
vs Weaker (2)	19.5	25.5	45.0	-6.0	0%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.8	19.8	41.5	+2.0	53%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.1	18.0	41.1	+5.1	73%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.5	21.5	42.0	-1.1	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.4	20.5	39.9	-1.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.0	18.4	40.4	+3.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	24.0	21.0	45.0	+3.0	100%	-
vs Similar (6)	18.8	20.3	39.2	-1.5	33%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	22.4	19.6	42.0	+2.9	57%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.6	19.4	39.0	+0.2	50%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	20.9	17.5	38.5	+3.4	67%	-
Last 30 away (15)	18.3	21.2	39.5	-2.9	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.1	17.9	40.0	+4.2	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.0	17.6	40.6	+5.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	18.6	21.1	39.7	-2.5	37%	-
vs Similar (9)	21.0	16.2	37.2	+4.8	78%	-
vs Weaker (2)	23.0	17.0	40.0	+6.0	50%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.3	19.4	42.7	+3.9	67%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.3	17.9	41.1	+5.4	73%	-
Last 30 away (15)	23.3	21.0	44.3	+2.3	60%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.1	16.7	40.8	+7.4	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.6	16.2	38.8	+6.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	20.0	18.0	38.0	+2.0	100%	-
vs Similar (6)	26.7	22.0	48.7	+4.7	83%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	22.6	18.8	41.4	+3.7	61%	-

EstelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Obradoiro CAB

34-40

-6

H02/04

Primera FEB

Oviedo

#11

48-36

+12

H06/04

Primera FEB

Real Valladolid

#16

40-35

A11/04

Primera FEB

San Pablo Burgos

43-40

H19/04

Primera FEB

Estudiantes

40-51

-11

A22/04

Primera FEB

Ourense

#10

39-30

H26/04

Primera FEB

Zamora

#13

47-28

+19

A02/05

Primera FEB

Cartagena

48-25

+23

H09/05

Primera FEB

Zamora

37-52

-15

H27/09

Primera FEB

Obradoiro CAB

43-44

-1

A04/10

Primera FEB

80.0Avg total

41.9Scored

38.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.4	39.4	77.8	-1.1	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	41.2	37.4	78.6	+3.8	67%	-
Last 30 away (15)	35.5	41.5	77.0	-5.9	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.9	38.1	80.0	+3.8	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.8	35.8	78.6	+7.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	37.4	41.6	79.0	-4.3	32%	-
vs Similar (9)	39.6	34.1	73.7	+5.4	78%	-
vs Weaker (2)	42.5	42.5	85.0	+0.0	50%	-

This opponent (Palencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PalenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Zamora

#13

40-36

A30/03

Primera FEB

Hestia Menorca

#15

38-32

H04/04

Primera FEB

Obradoiro CAB

34-35

-1

A12/04

Primera FEB

Tizona Burgos

53-46

H19/04

Primera FEB

Ourense

#10

47-50

-3

A23/04

Primera FEB

Moron

#18

43-27

+16

H26/04

Primera FEB

Castello

#17

40-42

-2

A02/05

Primera FEB

Real Betis

53-36

+17

H09/05

Primera FEB

Palmer Basket

#15

39-38

A28/09

Primera FEB

Cartagena

#16

48-30

+18

H03/10

Primera FEB

80.7Avg total

43.5Scored

37.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.1	39.2	84.3	+5.9	70%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	46.3	35.9	82.2	+10.5	93%	-
Last 30 away (15)	43.8	42.5	86.3	+1.3	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.5	37.2	80.7	+6.3	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	44.6	34.6	79.2	+10.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	44.0	39.0	83.0	+5.0	100%	-
vs Similar (6)	45.5	42.3	87.8	+3.2	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	45.0	38.4	83.4	+6.6	74%	-

This opponent (Estela) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.3	20.1	39.4	-0.7	37%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	17.6	19.8	37.4	-2.2	40%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.1	20.3	41.4	+0.7	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.5	20.2	38.7	-1.7	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.6	21.0	40.6	-1.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	18.5	19.8	38.4	-1.3	37%	-
vs Similar (9)	20.7	21.0	41.7	-0.3	33%	-
vs Weaker (2)	21.0	18.0	39.0	+3.0	50%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.3	19.4	40.7	+1.8	53%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.2	19.9	42.1	+2.3	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.3	18.9	39.3	+1.4	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.0	18.4	37.4	+0.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.2	19.4	36.6	-2.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	18.0	22.0	40.0	-4.0	0%	-
vs Similar (6)	18.0	19.5	37.5	-1.5	33%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	22.3	19.3	41.6	+3.0	61%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.9	22.3	41.2	-3.4	20%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	19.1	22.3	41.3	-3.2	20%	-
Last 30 away (15)	18.7	22.3	41.1	-3.6	20%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.3	23.7	42.0	-5.4	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.8	22.2	42.0	-2.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	16.6	22.5	39.1	-5.9	11%	-
vs Similar (9)	23.0	23.7	46.7	-0.7	22%	-
vs Weaker (2)	22.5	14.0	36.5	+8.5	100%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.8	20.9	42.7	+0.9	50%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.3	20.9	43.2	+1.3	67%	-
Last 30 away (15)	21.3	20.9	42.1	+0.4	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.0	21.4	43.4	+0.6	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.6	18.8	41.4	+3.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	23.0	26.0	49.0	-3.0	0%	-
vs Similar (6)	22.2	21.8	44.0	+0.3	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	21.6	20.4	42.0	+1.2	52%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	38.2	42.4	80.6	-4.1	33%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	36.7	42.1	78.7	-5.4	27%	-
Last 30 away (15)	39.8	42.7	82.5	-2.9	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.8	43.9	80.7	-7.1	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.4	43.2	82.6	-3.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)	35.1	42.4	77.5	-7.3	26%	-
vs Similar (9)	43.7	44.7	88.3	-1.0	33%	-
vs Weaker (2)	43.5	32.0	75.5	+11.5	100%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	43.0	40.3	83.4	+2.7	57%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	44.5	40.9	85.3	+3.6	67%	-
Last 30 away (15)	41.6	39.8	81.4	+1.8	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	41.0	39.8	80.8	+1.2	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	39.8	38.2	78.0	+1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	41.0	48.0	89.0	-7.0	0%	-
vs Similar (6)	40.2	41.3	81.5	-1.2	33%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	43.9	39.7	83.6	+4.1	65%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Estelatheir own shots, last 10 games

No box scores for this team yet.

Palenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Palencia: 79.2 points a game scored

🏀🏀51%

🏀🏀🏀32%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 51% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 32% of the points

🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game

45%

36%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.5	20.1	52.2%	51.5%	40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.6	8.4	34.1%	33.9%	25.2
🏀 Free throws	18.3	13.8	75.4%	73.4%	13.8

They take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	32.0	17.8	55.6%	51.5%	35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.2	11.0	36.4%	33.9%	33.0
🏀 Free throws	22.8	19.3	84.6%	73.4%	19.3

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.3	19.0	52.5%	51.5%	38.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.5	8.7	34.3%	33.9%	26.2
🏀 Free throws	19.6	14.6	74.4%	73.4%	14.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.7	19.7	53.7%	51.5%	39.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.3	10.2	37.5%	33.9%	30.7
🏀 Free throws	21.3	16.8	78.9%	73.4%	16.8

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Estela wins

Palencia wins

Date	Game	Score
21/03/25	Palencia v Estela	85-77
18/01/25	Estela v Palencia	59-83
24/03/23	Palencia v Estela	94-72
26/11/22	Estela v Palencia	67-77

Estelalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/10/25	A	Obradoiro CAB	87-82
27/09/25	H	Zamora	72-96
09/05/25	H	Cartagena	84-69
02/05/25	A	Zamora	82-71
26/04/25	H	Ourense	86-77
22/04/25	A	Estudiantes	76-101
19/04/25	H	San Pablo Burgos	74-85
11/04/25	A	Real Valladolid	88-81
06/04/25	H	Oviedo	80-73
02/04/25	H	Obradoiro CAB	58-85

Palencialast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
03/10/25	H	Cartagena	90-73
28/09/25	A	Palmer Basket	78-69
09/05/25	H	Real Betis	87-68
02/05/25	A	Castello	96-101 OT
26/04/25	H	Moron	81-68
23/04/25	A	Ourense	84-94
19/04/25	H	Tizona Burgos	102-79
12/04/25	A	Obradoiro CAB	76-77
04/04/25	H	Hestia Menorca	84-72
30/03/25	A	Zamora	77-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estela

Primera FEB 2025-26

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LW	50%
Home	L	0%
Away	W	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	2	1	1
Win %	50%	0%	100%
Points / game	79.5	72.0	87.0
Allowed / game	89.0	96.0	82.0
Point differential	-9.5	-24.0	+5.0
Avg total	168.5	168.0	169.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	0%	0%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Palencia

Primera FEB 2025-26

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WW	100%
Home	W	100%
Away	W	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	2	1	1
Win %	100%	100%	100%
Points / game	84.0	90.0	78.0
Allowed / game	71.0	73.0	69.0
Point differential	+13.0	+17.0	+9.0
Avg total	155.0	163.0	147.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	50%	100%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Leyma Coruna	2	2	0	100%	83.0	67.5	+15.5
2	Palencia	2	2	0	100%	84.0	71.0	+13.0
3	Alicante	1	1	0	100%	87.0	76.0	+11.0
4	Estudiantes	2	2	0	100%	97.0	87.5	+9.5
5	Fuenlabrada	2	2	0	100%	87.5	81.0	+6.5
6	Zamora	3	2	1	67%	93.7	87.0	+6.7
7	Ourense	3	2	1	67%	84.0	80.0	+4.0
8	Hestia Menorca	2	1	1	50%	83.5	74.0	+9.5
9	Fibwi Palma	2	1	1	50%	70.5	71.0	-0.5
10	Cartagena	2	1	1	50%	72.5	80.0	-7.5
11	Estela	2	1	1	50%	79.5	89.0	-9.5
12	Tizona Burgos	3	1	2	33%	96.7	95.0	+1.7
13	Obradoiro CAB	3	1	2	33%	85.0	93.0	-8.0
14	Gipuzkoa	3	0	3	0%	82.0	89.3	-7.3
15	Palmer Basket	2	0	2	0%	69.0	80.0	-11.0
16	Melilla	2	0	2	0%	82.0	94.0	-12.0
17	Oviedo	2	0	2	0%	79.5	94.0	-14.5

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Estela	11	13	24	10	58
Palencia	28	32	22	25	107

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Estela vs Palencia Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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