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Estonia vs Finland Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 30 Aug 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 67-96
21-21 14-17 11-28 21-30
Position#58
Record3-4
FormWLWLL
Points / game82.3
Allowed / game81.1
vs
Finland 🏆
Position#32
Record4-3
FormWWWLL
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game81.0
EuropeWorld CupRound 2· Unibet Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Estonia v Finland
30 Aug 2026
ESTO67
FINL96
28 Aug 2022
ESTO68
FINL76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estonia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Finland winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#23
W
89-75
89
75
+14
no box
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
64-84
64
84
-20
54avg 60
H01/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
L
65-68
65
68
-3
65avg 60
H03/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#44
W
94-93 OT
94
93
+1
no box
A28/11
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
92-97
92
97
-5
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Sweden
#47
W
88-77
88
77
+11
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Sweden
#47
L
69-79
69
79
-10
no box
H01/03
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
W
93-62
93
62
+31
no box
H03/07
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
73-75
73
75
-2
no box
A06/07
World Cup
Hungary
#38
L
67-85
67
85
-18
no box
A27/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-19
31-17
23-18
12-21
13-25
14-21
22-19
15-19
14-14
18-13
13-20
20-21
19-20
20-18
26-20
14-21
29-27
24-31
21-22
18-17
22-22
24-14
11-22
31-19
22-23
16-15
17-13
14-28
22-16
24-15
27-20
20-11
20-24
17-17
16-11
20-23
14-13
20-24
22-26
11-22
158.9Avg total
79.4Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)82.381.1163.4+1.143%
Season at home (3)84.779.3164.0+5.333%
Season away (4)80.582.5163.0-2.050%
Last 10 (10)79.479.5158.9-0.140%
Last 5 (5)78.075.6153.6+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)72.581.4153.9-8.922%
vs Similar ◀ (8)83.477.1160.5+6.262%
vs Weaker (4)80.577.2157.8+3.250%
This opponent (Finland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FinlandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFinland
Date
Competition
Georgia
#14
W
93-79
93
79
+14
95avg 78
H10/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
86-98
86
98
-12
82avg 78
A12/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
89-92
89
92
-3
79avg 78
A14/09
EuroBasket
Hungary
#38
L
82-89
82
89
-7
no box
A28/11
World Cup
France
#6
W
83-76
83
76
+7
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Belgium
#83
W
71-66
71
66
+5
no box
A27/02
World Cup
Belgium
#83
W
78-75
78
75
+3
no box
H01/03
World Cup
Hungary
#38
W
85-77
85
77
+8
no box
H03/07
World Cup
France
#6
L
69-98
69
98
-29
no box
A06/07
World Cup
Sweden
#47
L
81-86
81
86
-5
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-15
29-25
14-22
22-17
26-30
21-31
26-20
13-17
15-24
19-24
22-21
33-23
17-31
22-29
22-15
21-14
20-19
17-26
19-16
27-15
12-24
20-13
16-19
23-10
17-22
17-15
22-15
22-23
13-18
35-25
26-15
11-19
16-31
14-18
17-28
22-21
20-23
21-21
20-20
20-22
165.3Avg total
81.7Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)78.481.0159.4-2.657%
Season at home (4)81.878.5160.2+3.275%
Season away (3)74.084.3158.3-10.333%
Last 10 (10)81.783.6165.3-1.950%
Last 5 (5)76.880.4157.2-3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)78.989.5168.3-10.627%
vs Similar ◀ (8)87.684.8172.4+2.950%
vs Weaker (7)88.675.0163.6+13.6100%
This opponent (Estonia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -5.3-5.3Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: +3.3+3.3
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -5.3-5.3Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: +3.3+3.3
EstoniaFinland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Czech Republic
#23
W
54-36
54
36
+18
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
27-46
27
46
-19
H01/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H03/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#44
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A28/11
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H01/12
World Cup
Sweden
#47
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A27/02
World Cup
Sweden
#47
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H01/03
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H03/07
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A06/07
World Cup
Hungary
#38
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A27/08
World Cup
79.4Avg total
40.6Scored
38.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.641.580.1-2.937%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.340.079.3-0.747%-
Last 30 away (15)37.943.080.9-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)40.638.879.4+1.850%-
Last 5 (5)40.236.676.8+3.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)36.643.279.8-6.628%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)41.640.582.1+1.138%-
vs Weaker (4)41.535.877.2+5.875%-
This opponent (Finland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
FinlandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia
#14
W
57-40
57
40
+17
H10/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
47-61
47
61
-14
A12/09
EuroBasket
Greece
#3
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A14/09
EuroBasket
Hungary
#38
L
39-60
39
60
-21
A28/11
World Cup
France
#6
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H01/12
World Cup
Belgium
#83
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A27/02
World Cup
Belgium
#83
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H01/03
World Cup
Hungary
#38
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H03/07
World Cup
France
#6
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A06/07
World Cup
Sweden
#47
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H27/08
World Cup
86.3Avg total
39.9Scored
46.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.544.787.2-2.237%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.344.388.6-0.140%-
Last 30 away (15)40.745.185.9-4.433%-
Last 10 (10)39.946.486.3-6.520%-
Last 5 (5)37.042.079.0-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)40.847.588.3-6.720%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)43.443.586.9-0.150%-
vs Weaker (7)45.140.385.4+4.957%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.117.5
49.9%
-35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.98.8
31.5%
-26.4
🏀 Free throws17.312.4
71.7%
-12.4
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Finlandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Finland: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.218.3
49.2%
-36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.611.9
36.5%
-35.7
🏀 Free throws17.713.4
75.7%
-13.4
They take 69.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Aug 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estonia
LLWLWLWLLW
Finland
LLWWWWLLLW
#58
League position
#32
-2.6
Net rating
+3.5
101.6
Offensive rating
112.5
104.3
Defensive rating
108.9
48.7%
Effective FG%
51.8%
48.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
18.4%
Turnover %
15.4%
30.4%
Off. rebound %
32.6%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.25
31.5%
3-point %
36.5%
76.0%
Assist %
74.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Estonia   ■ Finland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Estonia wins
2
Finland wins
DateGameScore
14/11/22Finland v Estonia91-71
28/08/22Estonia v Finland68-76
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/08/26AHungary67-85
06/07/26ACzech Republic73-75
03/07/26HSlovenia93-62
01/03/26HSweden69-79
27/02/26ASweden88-77
01/12/25HCzech Republic92-97
28/11/25ASlovenia94-93 OT
03/09/25HPortugal65-68
01/09/25HTurkey64-84
30/08/25ACzech Republic89-75
Finlandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/08/26HSweden81-86
06/07/26AFrance69-98
03/07/26HHungary85-77
01/03/26HBelgium78-75
27/02/26ABelgium71-66
01/12/25HFrance83-76
28/11/25AHungary82-89
14/09/25AGreece89-92
12/09/25AGermany86-98
10/09/25HGeorgia93-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estonia
World Cup 2027
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL43%
HomeLLW33%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%33%50%
Points / game82.384.780.5
Allowed / game81.179.382.5
Point differential+1.1+5.3-2.0
Avg total163.4164.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %14%0%25%
Finland
World Cup 2027
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL57%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%75%33%
Points / game78.481.874.0
Allowed / game81.078.584.3
Point differential-2.6+3.2-10.3
Avg total159.4160.2158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Australia880100%101.870.0+31.8
2 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
3 Canada770100%101.479.6+21.9
4 Turkey770100%89.372.6+16.7
5 Croatia1211192%99.273.5+25.8
6 France87188%85.171.6+13.5
7 Poland87188%95.882.2+13.5
8 Germany87188%93.682.1+11.5
9 Argentina76186%86.667.9+18.7
10 Lebanon76186%90.072.6+17.4
11 Brazil76186%93.178.0+15.1
12 Mexico54180%96.683.4+13.2
13 Dominican Republic54180%91.880.2+11.6
14 Ivory Coast97278%88.276.1+12.1
15 Cameroon97278%76.471.6+4.9
16 New Zealand86275%97.279.8+17.5
17 South Sudan86275%82.467.8+14.6
18 Senegal86275%85.070.5+14.5
19 Mali86275%82.875.6+7.1
20 Ukraine118373%81.974.7+7.2
21 Spain75271%87.974.6+13.3
22 Uruguay75271%85.073.1+11.9
23 Japan75271%86.475.4+11.0
24 Italy75271%85.777.0+8.7
25 Serbia75271%88.780.1+8.6
26 Angola96367%86.873.0+13.8
27 Guinea96367%75.266.1+9.1
28 Jordan85362%85.571.0+14.5
29 Iran85362%74.967.8+7.1
30 Tunisia85362%71.268.8+2.5
31 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
32 Portugal74357%82.976.9+6.0
33 China74357%83.980.9+3.0
34 Georgia74357%83.781.6+2.1
35 Qatar74357%76.775.6+1.1
36 Romania148657%76.976.6+0.3
37 Finland74357%78.481.0-2.6
38 Montenegro74357%69.376.4-7.1
39 Nigeria95456%79.976.9+3.0
40 Hungary116555%81.376.6+4.6
41 Switzerland168850%73.172.8+0.3
42 Philippines84450%76.976.8+0.1
43 Sweden84450%81.183.5-2.4
44 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
45 Czech Republic63350%81.386.2-4.8
46 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
47 Egypt94544%75.973.1+2.8
48 Greece73443%72.770.0+2.7
49 Bosnia & Herzegovina73443%78.977.0+1.9
50 Estonia73443%82.381.1+1.1
51 Lithuania73443%87.086.3+0.7
52 Latvia73443%83.182.9+0.3
53 Bahamas73443%92.393.6-1.3
54 Saudi Arabia73443%77.078.9-1.9
55 Slovenia73443%82.984.7-1.9
56 Austria146843%83.084.9-1.9
57 South Korea73443%77.480.1-2.7
58 Colombia73443%83.691.4-7.9
59 Iceland73443%82.491.4-9.0
60 Netherlands125742%82.181.1+1.0
61 Chile62433%72.277.2-5.0
62 Cape Verde93633%75.681.3-5.8
63 Chinese Taipei62433%77.284.5-7.3
64 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
65 Jamaica62433%86.3102.8-16.5
66 D.R. Congo93633%68.885.7-16.9
67 Israel72529%80.683.3-2.7
68 Puerto Rico72529%87.491.7-4.3
69 Panama72529%74.487.3-12.9
70 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
71 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
72 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
73 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
74 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
75 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
76 Syria82625%66.889.9-23.1
77 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
78 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
79 Denmark102820%73.186.8-13.7
80 Venezuela61517%79.087.5-8.5
81 Great Britain61517%80.290.5-10.3
82 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
83 Belgium6060%71.880.0-8.2
84 Rwanda6060%66.285.7-19.5
85 Libya6060%66.586.7-20.2
86 Uganda6060%64.086.5-22.5
87 Cuba6060%66.789.8-23.2
88 Nicaragua4040%72.095.5-23.5
89 Madagascar6060%73.797.7-24.0
90 Iraq6060%69.393.8-24.5
91 India6060%60.886.2-25.3
92 Cyprus6060%60.299.0-38.8
93 Guam6060%65.2104.5-39.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estonia2114112167
Finland2117283096
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