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Sweden vs Estonia Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 27 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 77-88
22-22 14-24 22-11 19-31
Position#47
Record0-2
FormLLLLL
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game95.5
vs
Estonia 🏆
Position#58
Record1-1
FormWLLWL
Points / game93.0
Allowed / game95.0
EuropeWorld CupRound 3· Avicii Arena
Other2027
Meetings · Sweden v Estonia
27 Feb 2026
SWED77
ESTO88
27 Feb 2023
SWED71
ESTO72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sweden winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Estonia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SwedenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSweden
Date
Competition
Bulgaria
#13
L
77-81 OT
77
81
-4
no box
A20/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
86-83 OT
86
83
+3
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
90-93
90
93
-3
90avg 71
H27/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
83-105
83
105
-22
67avg 71
A29/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
78-59
78
59
+19
74avg 71
A30/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
81-87
81
87
-6
72avg 71
H01/09
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
71-74
71
74
-3
64avg 71
A03/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
79-85
79
85
-6
77avg 71
A06/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#49
L
80-97
80
97
-17
no box
A28/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
L
83-94
83
94
-11
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-25
17-9
15-24
16-12
20-14
12-19
21-18
19-21
21-26
27-23
24-23
18-21
17-27
25-32
24-25
17-21
19-13
16-17
26-17
17-12
15-18
19-22
31-24
16-23
21-14
18-19
14-21
18-20
23-20
19-17
13-26
24-22
22-27
24-20
17-27
17-23
16-31
26-18
22-24
19-21
166.6Avg total
80.8Scored
85.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)81.595.5177.0-14.00%
Season at home (1)83.094.0177.0-11.00%
Season away (1)80.097.0177.0-17.00%
Last 10 (10)80.885.8166.6-5.020%
Last 5 (5)78.887.4166.2-8.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)74.281.5155.7-7.325%
vs Similar ◀ (4)83.292.2175.5-9.00%
vs Weaker (14)83.674.3157.9+9.464%
This opponent (Estonia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Poland
#24
L
86-88
86
88
-2
no box
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
84-65
84
65
+19
no box
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
75-82
75
82
-7
no box
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
64-98
64
98
-34
49avg 63
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
L
70-72
70
72
-2
67avg 63
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
89-75
89
75
+14
81avg 63
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
64-84
64
84
-20
54avg 63
H01/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
L
65-68
65
68
-3
65avg 63
H03/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#44
W
94-93 OT
94
93
+1
no box
A28/11
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
92-97
92
97
-5
no box
H01/12
World Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-22
17-18
21-22
23-26
22-17
16-22
20-11
26-15
19-28
24-32
21-7
11-15
12-32
17-24
15-30
20-12
21-17
21-21
19-25
9-9
23-19
31-17
23-18
12-21
13-25
14-21
22-19
15-19
14-14
18-13
13-20
20-21
19-20
20-18
26-20
14-21
29-27
24-31
21-22
18-17
160.5Avg total
78.3Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)93.095.0188.0-2.050%
Season at home (1)92.097.0189.0-5.00%
Season away (1)94.093.0187.0+1.0100%
Last 10 (10)78.382.2160.5-3.930%
Last 5 (5)80.883.4164.2-2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)71.679.7151.4-8.127%
vs Similar ◀ (4)86.081.0167.0+5.075%
vs Weaker (4)80.577.2157.8+3.250%
This opponent (Sweden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: -0.8-0.8
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -2.4-2.4Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -1.5-1.5Q4: -0.8-0.8
SwedenEstonia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SwedenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bulgaria
#13
W
39-34
39
34
+5
A20/02
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H23/02
EuroBasket
Finland
#10
L
48-49
48
49
-1
H27/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A29/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A30/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
L
34-40
34
40
-6
H01/09
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A03/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A06/09
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#49
L
46-47
46
47
-1
A28/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#44
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H01/12
World Cup
81.0Avg total
39.9Scored
41.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.338.677.9+0.747%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.637.174.7+0.636%-
Last 30 away (16)40.840.080.8+0.856%-
Last 10 (10)39.941.181.0-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)40.641.281.8-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)38.141.879.9-3.833%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)43.244.888.0-1.525%-
vs Weaker (14)39.234.173.4+5.164%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Poland
#24
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H21/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
43-60
43
60
-17
A24/02
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
29-56
29
56
-27
A27/08
EuroBasket
Latvia
#11
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H29/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
54-36
54
36
+18
A30/08
EuroBasket
Turkey
#2
L
27-46
27
46
-19
H01/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
32-27
32
27
+5
H03/09
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#44
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A28/11
World Cup
Czech Republic
#49
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H01/12
World Cup
83.7Avg total
39.9Scored
43.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.841.379.1-3.537%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.139.877.9-1.744%-
Last 30 away (14)37.443.180.5-5.629%-
Last 10 (10)39.943.883.7-3.950%-
Last 5 (5)41.041.082.0+0.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)36.541.878.2-5.332%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)41.544.586.0-3.025%-
vs Weaker (4)41.535.877.2+5.875%-
This opponent (Sweden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Swedentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sweden: 76.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.318.1
49.9%
-36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.0
35.0%
-27.0
🏀 Free throws19.413.5
69.6%
-13.5
They take 62.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 17% of the points

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.117.5
49.9%
-35.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.98.8
31.5%
-26.4
🏀 Free throws17.312.4
71.7%
-12.4
They take 63.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes. Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sweden
LLLLLWLLWL
Estonia
LWLLWLLLWL
#47
League position
#58
-6.0
Net rating
-2.6
104.0
Offensive rating
101.6
109.9
Defensive rating
104.3
51.0%
Effective FG%
48.7%
46.8%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
16.7%
Turnover %
18.4%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
30.4%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.0%
3-point %
31.5%
68.6%
Assist %
76.0%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Form (last 10/10)20% · 30%
■ Sweden   ■ Estonia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Sweden wins
1
Estonia wins
DateGameScore
27/02/23Sweden v Estonia71-72
11/11/22Estonia v Sweden82-87
Swedenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/25HSlovenia83-94
28/11/25ACzech Republic80-97
06/09/25ATurkey79-85
03/09/25ALithuania71-74
01/09/25HMontenegro81-87
30/08/25AGreat Britain78-59
29/08/25AGermany83-105
27/08/25HFinland90-93
23/02/25HMontenegro86-83 OT
20/02/25ABulgaria77-81 OT
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/12/25HCzech Republic92-97
28/11/25ASlovenia94-93 OT
03/09/25HPortugal65-68
01/09/25HTurkey64-84
30/08/25ACzech Republic89-75
29/08/25HLatvia70-72
27/08/25ASerbia64-98
24/02/25ALithuania75-82
21/02/25HNorth Macedonia84-65
24/11/24HPoland86-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sweden
World Cup 2027
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game81.583.080.0
Allowed / game95.594.097.0
Point differential-14.0-11.0-17.0
Avg total177.0177.0177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Estonia
World Cup 2027
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWL50%
HomeL0%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %50%0%100%
Points / game93.092.094.0
Allowed / game95.097.093.0
Point differential-2.0-5.0+1.0
Avg total188.0189.0187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %50%0%100%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Argentina220100%92.558.5+34.0
2 Croatia660100%94.566.5+28.0
3 Jordan330100%82.355.7+26.7
4 Costa Rica550100%81.455.4+26.0
5 Saudi Arabia220100%78.054.0+24.0
6 Turkey220100%89.065.5+23.5
7 Angola110100%90.068.0+22.0
8 Spain330100%83.363.7+19.7
9 Germany220100%86.066.5+19.5
10 Canada330100%100.382.7+17.7
11 Uruguay220100%88.571.0+17.5
12 Brazil220100%80.064.0+16.0
13 Guinea330100%72.360.7+11.7
14 Ivory Coast110100%90.080.0+10.0
15 Mali110100%86.077.0+9.0
16 D.R. Congo110100%87.079.0+8.0
17 Australia330100%85.378.7+6.7
18 Poland330100%86.381.0+5.3
19 Serbia220100%82.079.0+3.0
20 Colombia110100%80.078.0+2.0
21 Netherlands75271%80.474.4+6.0
22 Ukraine75271%80.174.7+5.4
23 Philippines32167%82.762.0+20.7
24 Slovenia32167%95.378.7+16.7
25 South Sudan32167%81.364.7+16.7
26 Greece32167%77.366.3+11.0
27 Iran32167%80.070.7+9.3
28 Switzerland128467%75.466.5+8.9
29 Japan32167%83.374.7+8.7
30 Mexico32167%91.084.0+7.0
31 Tunisia32167%74.770.0+4.7
32 France32167%76.372.3+4.0
33 South Korea32167%78.376.3+2.0
34 Cameroon32167%71.369.7+1.7
35 Jamaica32167%95.093.7+1.3
36 Cape Verde32167%82.086.7-4.7
37 Montenegro32167%69.774.3-4.7
38 Czech Republic32167%84.390.3-6.0
39 Romania106460%75.674.6+1.0
40 El Salvador53260%64.871.8-7.0
41 Hungary74357%81.174.7+6.4
42 Portugal21150%75.569.0+6.5
43 Dominican Republic21150%90.087.0+3.0
44 Great Britain21150%89.086.5+2.5
45 Qatar21150%80.079.0+1.0
46 Finland21150%82.582.5+0.0
47 Lithuania21150%85.085.0+0.0
48 Iceland21150%82.583.0-0.5
49 Lebanon21150%79.080.0-1.0
50 Estonia21150%93.095.0-2.0
51 Italy21150%79.081.0-2.0
52 Ireland63350%75.778.3-2.7
53 Armenia42250%86.596.0-9.5
54 Austria115645%84.678.8+5.8
55 Latvia31233%82.079.3+2.7
56 New Zealand31233%75.076.3-1.3
57 China31233%79.783.3-3.7
58 Nigeria31233%69.375.3-6.0
59 Chinese Taipei31233%71.378.3-7.0
60 Kosovo62433%73.781.5-7.8
61 Georgia31233%76.384.3-8.0
62 Bahamas31233%87.3100.3-13.0
63 Syria31233%61.781.3-19.7
64 Denmark72529%74.481.6-7.1
65 Slovakia41325%75.580.8-5.2
66 Luxembourg41325%67.874.0-6.2
67 Bulgaria41325%75.886.0-10.2
68 Albania41325%72.585.2-12.8
69 North Macedonia41325%69.582.5-13.0
70 Norway82625%66.981.0-14.1
71 Honduras51420%61.870.6-8.8
72 Guatemala51420%62.873.0-10.2
73 Azerbaijan61517%67.580.8-13.3
74 Venezuela1010%78.080.0-2.0
75 Puerto Rico3030%89.095.0-6.0
76 Madagascar1010%79.087.0-8.0
77 Belgium2020%74.083.0-9.0
78 Egypt1010%77.086.0-9.0
79 Senegal1010%80.090.0-10.0
80 Rwanda3030%68.378.7-10.3
81 Bosnia & Herzegovina2020%71.583.5-12.0
82 Libya3030%66.780.3-13.7
83 Sweden2020%81.595.5-14.0
84 Chile2020%64.080.0-16.0
85 Iraq3030%69.786.0-16.3
86 Israel2020%70.087.0-17.0
87 Panama2020%71.088.5-17.5
88 Uganda1010%68.090.0-22.0
89 India2020%54.078.0-24.0
90 Guam3030%65.791.7-26.0
91 Nicaragua1010%72.099.0-27.0
92 Cyprus2020%62.091.5-29.5
93 Cuba2020%58.592.5-34.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 93 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sweden2214221977
Estonia2224113188
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