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Estudiantes vs Breogan Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 14 Apr 2019
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 95-62
23-11 24-18 25-17 23-16
Position#16
Record9-17
FormWWLLW
Points / game82.4
Allowed / game87.5
vs
Position#18
Record8-18
FormLLLWL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game83.0
SpainACBRound 27
Domestic2018-19
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Estudiantes winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Breogan winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

EstudiantesSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstudiantes
Date
Competition
Libertad
#14
W
95-88
95
88
+7
no box
H19/03
Liga A
Murcia
#14
L
86-110
86
110
-24
no box
H24/03
ACB
La Union
#11
L
70-73
70
73
-3
no box
H28/03
Liga A
Comunicaciones Mercedes
#4
W
83-77
83
77
+6
no box
H31/03
Liga A
Baskonia
#3
L
67-104
67
104
-37
56avg 105
A31/03
ACB
La Union
#11
W
84-80
84
80
+4
no box
A04/04
Liga A
Regatas
#7
W
86-85
86
85
+1
no box
A06/04
Liga A
Gipuzkoa
#17
L
92-93
92
93
-1
84avg 105
A06/04
ACB
San Martin
#10
L
84-90
84
90
-6
no box
A08/04
Liga A
Quilmes
#20
W
99-75
99
75
+24
no box
H13/04
Liga A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-25
24-7
22-23
24-33
17-32
27-28
19-29
23-21
21-20
16-19
21-20
12-14
22-18
23-16
20-21
18-22
13-19
16-24
21-33
17-28
21-24
20-15
20-19
23-22
19-28
16-20
23-18
28-19
23-18
30-13
20-35
19-27
24-23
14-23
16-22
30-22
25-17
26-20
29-23
19-15
172.1Avg total
84.6Scored
87.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)82.487.5170.0-5.135%
Season at home (13)82.686.0168.6-3.454%
Season away (13)82.289.1171.3-6.815%
Last 10 (10)84.687.5172.1-2.950%
Last 5 (5)89.084.6173.6+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)82.890.5173.3-7.750%
vs Similar ◀ (20)84.080.8164.8+3.265%
vs Weaker (3)85.076.3161.3+8.767%
This opponent (Breogan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BreoganSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreogan
Date
Competition
Valencia
#4
L
65-77
65
77
-12
87avg 97
H20/01
ACB
Manresa
#8
L
71-80
71
80
-9
99avg 97
H26/01
ACB
Tecnyconta Zaragoza
#9
L
69-83
69
83
-14
no box
A02/02
ACB
Murcia
#14
W
77-73
77
73
+4
104avg 97
H10/02
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
73-75
73
75
-2
100avg 97
A02/03
ACB
Baskonia
#3
L
72-90
72
90
-18
98avg 97
H10/03
ACB
Gipuzkoa
#17
L
65-100
65
100
-35
84avg 97
A16/03
ACB
Fuenlabrada
#13
L
92-96
92
96
-4
78avg 97
H24/03
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#6
W
88-81
88
81
+7
80avg 97
A30/03
ACB
Barcelona
#2
L
75-92
75
92
-17
64avg 97
H07/04
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-20
13-15
19-30
16-12
20-24
14-12
21-22
16-22
21-15
15-22
18-24
15-22
16-21
20-13
18-21
23-18
9-21
20-12
21-26
23-16
14-19
25-20
19-18
14-33
12-27
18-25
12-26
23-22
21-30
30-28
25-17
16-21
20-19
15-21
21-17
32-24
21-15
17-31
12-25
25-21
159.4Avg total
74.7Scored
84.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)76.483.0159.4-6.631%
Season at home (13)77.778.9156.6-1.246%
Season away (13)75.187.1162.2-12.015%
Last 10 (10)74.784.7159.4-10.020%
Last 5 (5)78.491.8170.2-13.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)75.284.5159.8-9.318%
vs Similar ◀ (9)78.680.1158.7-1.656%
vs Weaker (4)92.279.0171.2+13.2100%
This opponent (Estudiantes) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.4-1.4Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: -1.2-1.2Q3Q3: -3.2-3.2Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -0.8-0.8
EstudiantesBreogan
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
EstudiantesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Libertad
#14
W
49-32
49
32
+17
H19/03
Liga A
Murcia
#14
L
44-60
44
60
-16
H24/03
ACB
La Union
#11
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H28/03
Liga A
Comunicaciones Mercedes
#4
W
45-34
45
34
+11
H31/03
Liga A
Baskonia
#3
L
29-43
29
43
-14
A31/03
ACB
La Union
#11
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A04/04
Liga A
Regatas
#7
L
35-48
35
48
-13
A06/04
Liga A
Gipuzkoa
#17
W
53-31
53
31
+22
A06/04
ACB
San Martin
#10
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A08/04
Liga A
Quilmes
#20
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H13/04
Liga A
83.1Avg total
42.2Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.339.579.9+0.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.936.278.2+5.775%-
Last 30 away (14)38.543.381.8-4.829%-
Last 10 (10)42.240.983.1+1.350%-
Last 5 (5)43.640.283.8+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)38.539.377.8-0.867%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)40.839.280.0+1.550%-
vs Weaker (3)43.338.782.0+4.767%-
This opponent (Breogan) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BreoganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valencia
#4
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H20/01
ACB
Manresa
#8
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H26/01
ACB
Tecnyconta Zaragoza
#9
L
36-37
36
37
-1
A02/02
ACB
Murcia
#14
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H10/02
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A02/03
ACB
Baskonia
#3
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H10/03
ACB
Gipuzkoa
#17
L
30-52
30
52
-22
A16/03
ACB
Fuenlabrada
#13
L
51-58
51
58
-7
H24/03
ACB
Joventut Badalona
#6
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A30/03
ACB
Barcelona
#2
L
38-46
38
46
-8
H07/04
ACB
76.8Avg total
35.8Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.839.176.9-1.340%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.438.078.4+2.453%-
Last 30 away (15)35.240.375.5-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)35.841.076.8-5.210%-
Last 5 (5)38.647.085.6-8.40%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.139.675.6-3.518%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)37.737.975.6-0.267%-
vs Weaker (4)45.540.085.5+5.575%-
This opponent (Estudiantes) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Estudiantestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estudiantes: 83.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.4 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.418.4
49.2%
52.5%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.710.4
39.0%
36.6%31.2
🏀 Free throws20.215.2
75.2%
74.6%15.2
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Breogantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Breogan: 73.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.4 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.719.2
48.4%
52.5%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.26.7
27.7%
36.6%20.1
🏀 Free throws21.115.4
73.0%
74.6%15.4
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Apr 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Estudiantes
WLLWWLWLLW
Breogan
LWLLLLWLLL
#16
League position
#18
-7.6
Net rating
-13.4
111.4
Offensive rating
100.7
119.0
Defensive rating
114.1
53.0%
Effective FG%
45.8%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.7%
16.1%
Turnover %
16.4%
28.8%
Off. rebound %
30.0%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.33
39.0%
3-point %
27.7%
52.1%
Assist %
54.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence111.4 · 100.7Defence119.0 · 114.1Shooting53.0% · 45.8%3-point %39.0% · 27.7%Ball care16.1% · 16.4%Off. rebounds28.8% · 30.0%Free throws0.32 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Estudiantes   ■ Breogan
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Estudiantes wins
1
Breogan wins
DateGameScore
13/10/18Breogan v Estudiantes86-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/04/19HQuilmes99-75
08/04/19ASan Martin84-90
06/04/19AGipuzkoa92-93
06/04/19ARegatas86-85
04/04/19ALa Union84-80
31/03/19ABaskonia67-104
31/03/19HComunicaciones Mercedes83-77
28/03/19HLa Union70-73
24/03/19HMurcia86-110
19/03/19HLibertad95-88
Breoganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/04/19HBarcelona75-92
30/03/19AJoventut Badalona88-81
24/03/19HFuenlabrada92-96
16/03/19AGipuzkoa65-100
10/03/19HBaskonia72-90
02/03/19AObradoiro CAB73-75
10/02/19HMurcia77-73
02/02/19ATecnyconta Zaragoza69-83
26/01/19HManresa71-80
20/01/19HValencia65-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Estudiantes
ACB 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL35%
HomeWWWWL54%
AwayLLLLL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %35%54%15%
Points / game82.482.682.2
Allowed / game87.586.089.1
Point differential-5.1-3.4-6.8
Avg total170.0168.6171.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%15%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)71% (7)0% (2)
Overtime %4%8%0%
Breogan
ACB 2018-19
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL31%
HomeLWLLL46%
AwayLLLLW15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %31%46%15%
Points / game76.477.775.1
Allowed / game83.078.987.1
Point differential-6.6-1.2-12.0
Avg total159.4156.6162.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%23%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Barcelona2723485%88.075.9+12.1
2 Real Madrid2721678%88.078.1+9.9
3 Baskonia2720774%85.973.5+12.3
4 Unicaja26161062%85.082.3+2.8
5 Valencia26161062%80.779.0+1.7
6 Joventut Badalona27151256%80.380.0+0.3
7 Manresa27151256%81.382.1-0.8
8 Tecnyconta Zaragoza27141352%82.485.1-2.7
9 Tenerife27131448%81.178.7+2.4
10 MoraBanc Andorra27131448%82.682.4+0.2
11 San Pablo Burgos27121544%82.382.9-0.7
12 Obradoiro CAB27111641%77.681.1-3.5
13 Fuenlabrada26101638%80.788.8-8.2
14 Gran Canaria2691735%82.284.5-2.3
15 Estudiantes2691735%82.487.5-5.1
16 Breogan2681831%76.483.0-6.6
17 Murcia2781930%77.782.2-4.6
18 Gipuzkoa2772026%74.782.7-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Estudiantes2324252395
Breogan1118171662
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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