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Finland vs Lithuania Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 01 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 78-81
21-20 15-25 12-12 30-24
Position#10
Record3-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game95.7
Allowed / game78.0
vs
Position#4
Record2-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game92.0
Allowed / game81.3
EuropeEuroBasketRound 4· Nokia Arena
Other2025
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Finland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lithuania winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FinlandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFinland
Date
Competition
Venezuela
#43
W
90-75
90
75
+15
no box
H02/09
World Cup
Serbia
#1
L
61-77
61
77
-16
no box
A23/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
89-85
89
85
+4
no box
H26/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
L
83-90
83
90
-7
74avg 89
H21/11
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
L
64-81
64
81
-17
62avg 89
A24/11
EuroBasket
Serbia
#1
L
95-105
95
105
-10
91avg 89
H21/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
W
83-77
83
77
+6
75avg 89
A24/02
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
W
93-90
93
90
+3
92avg 89
A27/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
109-79
109
79
+30
109avg 89
H29/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
85-65
85
65
+20
84avg 89
A30/08
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-17
35-18
19-27
23-13
20-17
14-19
17-22
10-19
23-27
19-31
30-14
17-13
25-20
23-23
15-19
20-28
21-17
19-21
13-17
11-26
26-24
31-27
14-28
24-26
24-25
17-22
18-23
24-7
26-21
23-27
23-24
21-18
30-21
28-21
23-14
28-23
23-23
24-14
20-15
18-13
167.6Avg total
85.2Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)95.778.0173.7+17.7100%
Season at home (1)109.079.0188.0+30.0100%
Season away (2)89.077.5166.5+11.5100%
Last 10 (10)85.282.4167.6+2.860%
Last 5 (5)93.083.2176.2+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)79.189.5168.6-10.523%
vs Similar ◀ (9)89.781.2170.9+8.478%
vs Weaker (8)90.175.9166.0+14.2100%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Latvia
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
no box
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
83-64
83
64
+19
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
59-65
59
65
-6
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
82-67
82
67
+15
80avg 90
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
94-72
94
72
+22
103avg 90
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-48
82
48
+34
86avg 90
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
82-75
82
75
+7
78avg 90
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
94-70
94
70
+24
95avg 90
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
94-67
94
67
+27
98avg 90
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
88-107
88
107
-19
88avg 90
H30/08
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-28
18-21
9-28
16-21
16-19
19-11
27-19
21-15
18-17
19-24
13-9
9-15
23-9
21-18
20-16
18-24
23-27
20-19
21-16
30-10
15-18
22-14
25-10
20-6
28-19
32-24
7-21
15-11
23-15
18-18
24-17
29-20
26-15
21-13
19-17
28-22
20-32
27-23
25-28
16-24
155.4Avg total
82.1Scored
73.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)92.081.3173.3+10.767%
Season at home (2)91.087.0178.0+4.050%
Season away (1)94.070.0164.0+24.0100%
Last 10 (10)82.173.3155.4+8.870%
Last 5 (5)88.073.4161.4+14.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)74.693.4168.0-18.80%
vs Similar ◀ (9)84.378.0162.3+6.356%
vs Weaker (16)85.469.0154.4+16.488%
This opponent (Finland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +3.4+3.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +3.4+3.4
FinlandLithuania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FinlandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezuela
#43
W
48-35
48
35
+13
H02/09
World Cup
Serbia
#1
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A23/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
L
42-58
42
58
-16
H26/02
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
W
48-43
48
43
+5
H21/11
EuroBasket
Georgia
#21
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A24/11
EuroBasket
Serbia
#1
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H21/02
EuroBasket
Denmark
#27
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A24/02
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A27/08
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
58-42
58
42
+16
H29/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A30/08
EuroBasket
89.9Avg total
46.4Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.741.986.6+2.860%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.642.489.0+4.364%-
Last 30 away (16)43.141.584.6+1.656%-
Last 10 (10)46.443.589.9+2.970%-
Last 5 (5)50.445.095.4+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)42.246.688.8-4.431%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)45.737.483.1+8.278%-
vs Weaker (8)47.839.287.0+8.588%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Latvia
#3
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A21/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
60-43
60
43
+17
H24/02
EuroBasket
Great Britain
#20
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A27/08
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#19
W
47-28
47
28
+19
H29/08
EuroBasket
Germany
#1
L
47-55
47
55
-8
H30/08
EuroBasket
81.3Avg total
42.9Scored
38.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.338.981.2+3.463%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.640.984.4+2.756%-
Last 30 away (14)40.936.677.5+4.271%-
Last 10 (10)42.938.481.3+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)46.438.284.6+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)38.044.482.4-6.420%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.840.984.7+2.967%-
vs Weaker (16)42.836.178.9+6.875%-
This opponent (Finland) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Finlandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Finland: 83.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.7 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.018.3
53.9%
52.4%36.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.111.0
34.3%
33.4%33.0
🏀 Free throws18.113.9
76.7%
73.1%13.9
They take 66.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 83.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.420.8
57.0%
52.4%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.18.7
35.9%
33.4%26.0
🏀 Free throws23.416.2
69.2%
73.1%16.2
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 9/9 games with a box score before 01 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Finland
WWWWLLLWLW
Lithuania
LWWWWWWLWL
#10
League position
#4
+1.4
Net rating
+19.3
114.0
Offensive rating
114.3
112.6
Defensive rating
95.1
52.7%
Effective FG%
55.8%
55.9%
Opp. effective FG%
47.5%
15.8%
Turnover %
17.5%
32.5%
Off. rebound %
32.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.39
34.3%
3-point %
35.9%
80.3%
Assist %
73.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence114.0 · 114.3Defence112.6 · 95.1Shooting52.7% · 55.8%3-point %34.3% · 35.9%Ball care15.8% · 17.5%Off. rebounds32.5% · 32.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.39Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Finland   ■ Lithuania
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Finland wins
0
Lithuania wins
No previous meetings.
Finlandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/25AMontenegro85-65
29/08/25HGreat Britain109-79
27/08/25ASweden93-90
24/02/25ADenmark83-77
21/02/25HSerbia95-105
24/11/24AGeorgia64-81
21/11/24HGeorgia83-90
26/02/24HDenmark89-85
23/02/24ASerbia61-77
02/09/23HVenezuela90-75
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/08/25HGermany88-107
29/08/25HMontenegro94-67
27/08/25AGreat Britain94-70
24/02/25HEstonia82-75
21/02/25APoland82-48
24/11/24HNorth Macedonia94-72
21/11/24ANorth Macedonia82-67
26/02/24AEstonia59-65
22/02/24HPoland83-64
09/09/23ALatvia63-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Finland
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game95.7109.089.0
Allowed / game78.079.077.5
Point differential+17.7+30.0+11.5
Avg total173.7188.0166.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lithuania
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWL50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game92.091.094.0
Allowed / game81.387.070.0
Point differential+10.7+4.0+24.0
Avg total173.3178.0164.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany440100%109.576.0+33.5
2 Greece330100%88.362.7+25.7
3 Turkey440100%91.067.2+23.8
4 Finland330100%95.778.0+17.7
5 Serbia330100%87.371.0+16.3
6 Poland330100%85.078.0+7.0
7 Spain32167%82.765.7+17.0
8 Lithuania32167%92.081.3+10.7
9 Italy32167%80.072.0+8.0
10 France32167%88.080.3+7.7
11 Israel32167%76.368.7+7.7
12 Latvia42250%75.877.2-1.5
13 Slovenia31233%92.092.3-0.3
14 Bosnia & Herzegovina31233%79.082.7-3.7
15 Belgium31233%68.080.7-12.7
16 Georgia31233%66.080.3-14.3
17 Sweden41325%83.086.0-3.0
18 Estonia41325%71.882.2-10.5
19 Portugal41325%61.875.8-14.0
20 Montenegro41325%73.891.5-17.8
21 Iceland3030%70.079.3-9.3
22 Czech Republic3030%67.781.0-13.3
23 Cyprus3030%60.092.7-32.7
24 Great Britain4040%66.2100.2-34.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Finland2115123078
Lithuania2025122481
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