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Poland vs Lithuania Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 21 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 48-82
18-15 14-22 10-25 6-20
Position#24
Record6-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game79.4
Allowed / game75.9
Poland
vs
Lithuania 🏆
Position#4
Record3-1
FormLWLWW
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game67.0
EuropeEuroBasketRound 5· Spodek
Other2023
Meetings · Poland v Lithuania
21 Feb 2025
POLA48
LITH82
28 Jun 2018
POLA61
LITH79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Poland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lithuania winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPoland
Date
Competition
France
#7
L
54-95
54
95
-41
no box
H16/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
69-82
69
82
-13
no box
A18/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
79-64
79
64
+15
no box
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
W
87-79
87
79
+8
no box
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
87-72
87
72
+15
no box
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
W
80-70
80
70
+10
no box
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
64-83
64
83
-19
61avg 71
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
71-96
71
96
-25
58avg 71
H26/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
78-82
78
82
-4
72avg 71
H21/11
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
88-86
88
86
+2
79avg 71
A24/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-15
9-19
18-30
18-31
14-19
9-17
26-18
20-28
17-15
15-22
27-8
20-19
21-18
13-19
24-19
29-23
26-21
31-17
14-19
16-15
21-27
14-15
23-16
22-12
19-16
11-19
19-27
15-21
16-25
22-22
12-22
21-27
18-19
22-19
13-19
25-25
22-25
18-17
22-21
26-23
156.6Avg total
75.7Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)79.475.9155.3+3.560%
Season at home (5)76.877.2154.0-0.440%
Season away (5)82.074.6156.6+7.480%
Last 10 (10)75.780.9156.6-5.250%
Last 5 (5)76.283.4159.6-7.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)76.786.7163.4-10.029%
vs Similar (9)81.674.3155.9+7.278%
vs Weaker (4)74.869.0143.8+5.875%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Mexico
#26
W
96-66
96
66
+30
no box
H27/08
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
W
91-71
91
71
+20
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
92-67
92
67
+25
no box
H01/09
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
68-87
68
87
-19
no box
H05/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
100-84
100
84
+16
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
no box
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
83-64
83
64
+19
76avg 85
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
59-65
59
65
-6
49avg 85
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
82-67
82
67
+15
80avg 85
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
94-72
94
72
+22
103avg 85
H24/11
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-17
21-17
23-17
20-15
26-27
22-13
18-10
25-21
20-20
19-23
25-15
28-9
25-24
13-25
17-24
13-14
33-21
20-22
22-20
25-21
20-28
18-21
9-28
16-21
16-19
19-11
27-19
21-15
18-17
19-24
13-9
9-15
23-9
21-18
20-16
18-24
23-27
20-19
21-16
30-10
156.9Avg total
82.8Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)79.567.0146.5+12.575%
Season at home (2)88.568.0156.5+20.5100%
Season away (2)70.566.0136.5+4.550%
Last 10 (10)82.874.1156.9+8.770%
Last 5 (5)76.273.2149.4+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)74.091.2165.2-17.20%
vs Similar (9)84.378.0162.3+6.356%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)83.269.5152.8+13.888%
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +4.0+4.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +4.0+4.0
PolandLithuania
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
France
#7
L
18-34
18
34
-16
H16/09
EuroBasket
Germany
#17
L
23-36
23
36
-13
A18/09
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H10/11
EuroBasket
Croatia
#7
L
34-37
34
37
-3
A13/11
EuroBasket
Austria
#30
W
57-38
57
38
+19
H23/02
EuroBasket
Switzerland
#31
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A26/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
30-35
30
35
-5
A22/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H26/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H21/11
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A24/11
EuroBasket
73.3Avg total
34.7Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.639.977.5-2.330%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.138.177.1+1.050%-
Last 30 away (16)36.441.577.9-5.112%-
Last 10 (10)34.738.673.3-3.920%-
Last 5 (5)36.640.877.4-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)36.840.677.5-3.824%-
vs Similar (9)39.438.477.9+1.044%-
vs Weaker (4)37.040.077.0-3.025%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mexico
#26
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H27/08
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H01/09
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H05/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H07/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H24/11
EuroBasket
83.0Avg total
42.8Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.538.880.3+2.760%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.940.282.1+1.856%-
Last 30 away (14)41.137.278.3+3.964%-
Last 10 (10)42.840.283.0+2.650%-
Last 5 (5)39.438.678.0+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)39.043.882.8-4.820%-
vs Similar (9)43.840.984.7+2.967%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)41.136.177.1+5.069%-
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 78.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.717.3
51.3%
50.6%34.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.68.8
33.1%
32.5%26.4
🏀 Free throws23.417.4
74.4%
71.4%17.4
They take 60.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.518.0
53.7%
50.6%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.59.5
37.3%
32.5%28.5
🏀 Free throws20.014.0
70.0%
71.4%14.0
They take 59.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/4 games with a box score before 21 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Poland
WLLLWWWWLL
Lithuania
WWLWLWLWWW
#24
League position
#4
+4.2
Net rating
+17.9
106.1
Offensive rating
112.2
101.9
Defensive rating
94.3
50.6%
Effective FG%
54.7%
50.5%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
18.3%
Turnover %
16.4%
28.6%
Off. rebound %
28.5%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.1%
3-point %
37.3%
69.7%
Assist %
69.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.1 · 112.2Defence101.9 · 94.3Shooting50.6% · 54.7%3-point %33.1% · 37.3%Ball care18.3% · 16.4%Off. rebounds28.6% · 28.5%Free throws0.39 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Poland   ■ Lithuania
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Poland wins
4
Lithuania wins
DateGameScore
22/02/24Lithuania v Poland83-64
03/07/21Lithuania v Poland88-69
28/06/18Poland v Lithuania61-79
26/11/17Lithuania v Poland75-55
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/24AEstonia88-86
21/11/24HEstonia78-82
26/02/24HNorth Macedonia71-96
22/02/24ALithuania64-83
26/02/23ASwitzerland80-70
23/02/23HAustria87-72
13/11/22ACroatia87-79
10/11/22HSwitzerland79-64
18/09/22AGermany69-82
16/09/22HFrance54-95
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/11/24HNorth Macedonia94-72
21/11/24ANorth Macedonia82-67
26/02/24AEstonia59-65
22/02/24HPoland83-64
09/09/23ALatvia63-98
07/09/23HSlovenia100-84
05/09/23HSerbia68-87
01/09/23HGreece92-67
29/08/23AMontenegro91-71
27/08/23HMexico96-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Poland
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW60%
HomeLWWLL40%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %60%40%80%
Points / game79.476.882.0
Allowed / game75.977.274.6
Point differential+3.5-0.4+7.4
Avg total155.3154.0156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%40%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Lithuania
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWW75%
HomeWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %75%100%50%
Points / game79.588.570.5
Allowed / game67.068.066.0
Point differential+12.5+20.5+4.5
Avg total146.5156.5136.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+75%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia550100%85.664.4+21.2
2 France440100%76.863.5+13.2
3 Latvia550100%77.269.6+7.6
4 Italy54180%83.872.2+11.6
5 Slovenia54180%83.277.4+5.8
6 Croatia1411379%84.970.5+14.4
7 Lithuania43175%79.567.0+12.5
8 Greece43175%73.869.0+4.8
9 Israel43175%81.276.5+4.8
10 Estonia43175%76.873.5+3.2
11 Portugal107370%82.773.0+9.7
12 Bulgaria1510567%78.874.6+4.2
13 Germany53260%78.867.6+11.2
14 Belgium53260%76.267.2+9.0
15 North Macedonia106460%74.069.6+4.4
16 Poland106460%79.475.9+3.5
17 Turkey53260%79.276.8+2.4
18 Montenegro53260%81.479.6+1.8
19 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
20 Slovakia158753%72.371.9+0.4
21 Bosnia & Herzegovina42250%87.279.8+7.5
22 Czech Republic42250%80.076.2+3.8
23 Georgia42250%75.874.5+1.2
24 Denmark189950%74.473.6+0.8
25 Great Britain42250%80.083.2-3.2
26 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
27 Spain52340%70.872.6-1.8
28 Iceland52340%75.079.4-4.4
29 Sweden52340%73.079.6-6.6
30 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
31 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
32 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
33 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
34 Netherlands41325%79.284.5-5.2
35 Finland51420%78.487.6-9.2
36 Hungary51420%71.280.8-9.6
37 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
38 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
39 Cyprus161156%63.680.8-17.2
40 Ukraine5050%73.884.8-11.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Poland181410648
Lithuania1522252082
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