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Florida vs Merrimack Warriors Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 85-61
Projected total 145.8
Final 83-54
43-26 40-28
Position#54
Record3-0
FormWLWWW
Points / game82.0
Allowed / game65.3
Florida 🏆
USA
Vs
98%
■ FLOR 98%■ MERR 2%
Pythia win probability
Merrimack Warriors
USA
Position#234
Record2-1
FormWLWLW
Points / game65.7
Allowed / game60.0
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Florida v Merrimack Warriors
13 Nov 2026
FLOR83
MERR54
21 Nov 2025
FLOR80
MERR45
05 Dec 2023
FLOR77
MERR57
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Florida will host the Merrimack Warriors on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Florida the clear favourite, assigning it a 98% chance of winning because the Gators are 3-0 this season, averaging 82.0 points per game and allowing only 65.3, while Merrimack is 2-1, scoring 65.7 and conceding 60.0; Florida's home record is 2-0 with 82.5 points per game and 62.0 allowed, and its last five games include a 88-57 win over Jacksonville and a 77-67 victory over Miami (FL), whereas Merrimack's road record is 1-0, 73.0 points per game and 60.0 allowed, and its last five games feature a 73-60 win over Albany and a 61-71 loss to UMass Lowell; the Warriors have never beaten Florida in the two meetings, the last being an 80-45 win for the Gators on 21 November 2025; Pythia projects a 85-61 score, 145.8 total points, a 56% chance of the over on the 143.5 line, and a 1% probability of overtime, with Florida covering the spread.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Florida winWon
97.6%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Merrimack Warriors winLost
2.4%fair 41.77
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FloridaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
W
111-77
111
77
+34
H01/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
108-74
108
74
+34
H04/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
84-77
84
77
+7
A07/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
71-63
71
63
+8
H13/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
74-91
74
91
-17
H14/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
114-55
114
55
+59
H21/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
72-73
72
73
-1
H22/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#92
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H02/11
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#161
W
88-57
88
57
+31
H06/11
NCAA
Florida State
#232
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A10/11
NCAA
1H
2H
53-34
58-43
47-35
61-39
49-32
35-45
37-28
34-35
34-47
40-44
60-21
54-34
31-33
41-40
46-36
31-31
50-28
38-29
31-29
50-43
158.6Avg total
88.0Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.065.3147.3+16.7100%
Season at home (2)82.562.0144.5+20.5100%
Season away (1)81.072.0153.0+9.0100%
Last 10 (10)88.070.6158.6+17.480%
Last 5 (5)86.464.8151.2+21.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)77.067.0144.0+10.0100%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (29)88.071.0159.0+17.083%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siena
#78
W
79-72 OT
79
72
+7
H21/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
88-86 OT
88
86
+2
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
73-66
73
66
+7
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
70-48
70
48
+22
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#204
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
61-71
61
71
-10
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#233
W
73-60
73
60
+13
A08/11
NCAA
1H
2H
32-37
34-29
36-33
32-35
32-29
30-38
30-28
43-38
39-25
31-23
30-28
28-29
30-33
24-31
43-21
20-28
26-38
35-33
30-26
43-34
132.1Avg total
68.1Scored
64.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)65.760.0125.7+5.767%
Season at home (2)62.060.0122.0+2.050%
Season away (1)73.060.0133.0+13.0100%
Last 10 (10)68.164.0132.1+4.170%
Last 5 (5)61.860.2122.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)60.766.0126.7-5.333%
vs Similar (18)69.562.9132.4+6.678%
vs Weaker (9)70.762.6133.2+8.189%
This opponent (Florida) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 139Actual: Under 139
Over 139
66.7%
@ 1.47+3.3pp
Under 139
33.3%
@ 2.55-3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 144 · main lineActual: Under 144
Over 144
54.5%
@ 1.94+4.5pp
Under 144
45.5%
@ 1.91-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.94
Pinnacle
1.91
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 149Actual: Under 149
Over 149
41.8%
@ 2.65+6.8pp
Under 149
58.2%
@ 1.43-6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43

📊 3. Team Totals

Florida total 86Actual: Florida under 86
Over 86
44.9%
Under 86
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida total 90 · main lineActual: Florida under 90
Over 90
29.2%
@ 1.85-20.8pp
Under 90
70.8%
@ 1.85+20.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Florida total 94Actual: Florida under 94
Over 94
16.8%
Under 94
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Merrimack Warriors total 48.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors over 48.5
Over 48.5
no forecast
@ 1.34
Under 48.5
no forecast
@ 3.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.80
Merrimack Warriors total 52.5 · main lineActual: Merrimack Warriors over 52.5
Over 52.5
80.3%
@ 1.89+30.3pp
Under 52.5
19.7%
@ 1.91-30.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Merrimack Warriors total 56.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors under 56.5
Over 56.5
67.3%
@ 2.60+32.5pp
Under 56.5
32.7%
@ 1.39-32.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Florida -41Actual: Merrimack Warriors +41
FLOR -41
no forecast
@ 2.25
MERR +41
no forecast
@ 1.57
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
2.25
MERR
Bet365
1.57
Spread Florida -38 · main lineActual: Merrimack Warriors +38
FLOR -38
no forecast
@ 1.94
MERR +38
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.94
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
MERR
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.78
Spread Florida -35Actual: Merrimack Warriors +35
FLOR -35
no forecast
@ 1.62
MERR +35
no forecast
@ 2.15
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Bet365
1.62
MERR
Bet365
2.15

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.5+11.51st half: +3.0+3.02nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +0.2+0.2
-14-7+0+7+141st half1st half: +11.5+11.51st half: +3.0+3.02nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +0.2+0.2
FloridaMerrimack Warriors
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
FloridaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas
#36
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H01/03
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H04/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
49-32
49
32
+17
A07/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
W
37-28
37
28
+9
H13/03
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
L
34-47
34
47
-13
H14/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
60-21
60
21
+39
H21/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H22/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#92
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H02/11
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#161
W
50-28
50
28
+22
H06/11
NCAA
Florida State
#232
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A10/11
NCAA
76.1Avg total
43.8Scored
32.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)41.631.773.3+9.977%73%
Last 30 at home (19)42.531.974.4+10.684%74%
Last 30 away (11)40.131.471.5+8.764%73%
Last 10 (10)43.832.376.1+11.580%70%
Last 5 (5)43.629.473.0+14.280%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)46.036.082.0+10.0100%100%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (29)41.431.673.0+9.976%72%
This opponent (Merrimack Warriors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Merrimack WarriorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siena
#78
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
NCAA
Iona
#152
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Canisius
#327
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Niagara
#351
W
30-28
30
28
+2
A01/03
NCAA
Sacred Heart
#262
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H06/03
NCAA
Marist
#106
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H08/03
NCAA
Siena
#78
L
30-33
30
33
-3
H11/03
NCAA
Appalachian State
#204
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H02/11
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#107
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H06/11
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#233
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A08/11
NCAA
62.6Avg total
32.8Scored
29.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (30)33.929.763.6+4.273%33%
Last 30 at home (15)35.829.565.3+6.380%40%
Last 30 away (15)32.030.062.0+2.067%27%
Last 10 (10)32.829.862.6+3.070%20%
Last 5 (5)31.829.261.0+2.660%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)33.034.067.0-1.033%33%
vs Similar (18)33.328.962.2+4.472%33%
vs Weaker (9)35.330.065.3+5.389%33%
This opponent (Florida) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Florida -21.5 · main lineActual: Merrimack Warriors +21.5
FLOR -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
MERR +21.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Florida 1st half total 45 · main lineActual: Florida under 45
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Merrimack Warriors 1st half total 23.5 · main lineActual: Merrimack Warriors over 23.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Florida -22.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +22.5
FLOR -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
MERR +22.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread Florida -20.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +20.5
FLOR -20.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
MERR +20.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 66.5Actual: Over 66.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.60
Under
no forecast
@ 2.18
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Under 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.15
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Florida -23.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +23.5
FLOR -23.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
MERR +23.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Florida -19.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +19.5
FLOR -19.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
MERR +19.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 64.5Actual: Over 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.42
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Under 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half Spread Florida -24.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +24.5
FLOR -24.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
MERR +24.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Florida -18.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +18.5
FLOR -18.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
MERR +18.5
no forecast
@ 2.60
1st half Spread Florida -25.5Actual: Merrimack Warriors +25.5
FLOR -25.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
MERR +25.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Florida (regulation)
FLOR
no forecast
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
MERR
no forecast
@ 13.00

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
FLOR win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
MERR win + total 143.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: FLOR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Merrimack Warriors over 55.570.9%2.35
Betano
2.35		----+32.4ppLost
Merrimack Warriors over 54.574.2%2.12
Betano
2.12		----+31.7ppLost
Merrimack Warriors over 53.577.4%1.99
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
1.98
Bet365
1.95		--+31.2ppWon
Merrimack Warriors over 52.580.3%1.83
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80		+30.3ppWon
Merrimack Warriors over 5379.7%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+29.7ppWon
Merrimack Warriors over 51.582.9%1.71
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.67		---+29.1ppWon
Florida under 90.571.9%1.86
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.82		+24.6ppWon
Florida under 91.575.2%1.81
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.75		---+24.5ppWon
Florida under 9174.3%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.82		----+23.5ppWon
Florida under 92.578.2%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+21.5ppWon
Florida under 9070.8%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+20.8ppWon
Florida under 93.581.1%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+20.6ppWon
Florida under 94.583.7%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+19.7ppWon
Florida under 95.586.0%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+18.6ppWon
Over 135.573.9%1.32
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.28		---+3.8ppWon
Over 136.571.8%1.35
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33		---+3.2ppWon
Over 13771.2%1.36
Bet365
1.36		----+3.1ppPush
Over 13673.3%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+2.4ppWon
Over 133.577.8%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+1.6ppWon
Over 123.591.8%1.03
Bet365
1.03		----+1.5ppWon
Over 128.585.9%1.09
Bet365
1.09		-----0.2ppWon
Under 168.592.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.6ppWon
Florida over 71.591.0%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----1.7ppWon
Under 163.586.5%1.03
Bet365
1.03		-----3.7ppWon
Florida over 73.587.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----3.8ppWon
Florida over 75.582.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----6.7ppWon
Under 158.578.6%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----6.9ppWon
Florida over 77.577.0%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----10.5ppWon
Florida over 79.570.4%1.11
Bet365
1.11		-----14.0ppWon
Florida -17.571.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----21.7ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Florida wins
0
Merrimack Warriors wins
DateGameScore
22/11/25Florida v Merrimack Warriors80-45
06/12/23Florida v Merrimack Warriors77-57
Floridalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26AFlorida State81-72
06/11/26HJacksonville Dolphins88-57
02/11/26HMiami (FL)77-67
22/03/26HIowa72-73
21/03/26HPrairie View A&M114-55
14/03/26HVanderbilt74-91
13/03/26HKentucky71-63
07/03/26AKentucky84-77
04/03/26HMississippi St.108-74
01/03/26HArkansas111-77
Merrimack Warriorslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AAlbany Great Danes73-60
06/11/26HUMass Lowell61-71
02/11/26HAppalachian State63-49
11/03/26HSiena54-64
08/03/26HMarist58-57
06/03/26HSacred Heart70-48
01/03/26ANiagara73-66
28/02/26ACanisius62-67
22/02/26HIona88-86 OT
21/02/26HSiena79-72 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Florida
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game82.082.581.0
Allowed / game65.362.072.0
Point differential+16.7+20.5+9.0
Avg total147.3144.5153.0
Over 14467%50%100%
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Merrimack Warriors
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLW67%
HomeWL50%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%50%100%
Points / game65.762.073.0
Allowed / game60.060.060.0
Point differential+5.7+2.0+13.0
Avg total125.7122.0133.0
Over 1440%0%0%
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas330100%100.057.0+43.0
2 LSU330100%94.052.7+41.3
3 Ole Miss330100%94.056.3+37.7
4 Mississippi St.330100%95.363.0+32.3
5 Texas A&M440100%99.267.2+32.0
6 Vanderbilt330100%90.759.7+31.0
7 Auburn220100%83.556.0+27.5
8 Tennessee220100%80.053.0+27.0
9 Alabama330100%102.076.0+26.0
10 South Carolina330100%78.754.7+24.0
11 Florida330100%82.065.3+16.7
12 Georgia330100%83.070.3+12.7
13 Missouri32167%97.066.0+31.0
14 Arkansas32167%84.768.3+16.3
15 Oklahoma32167%76.365.7+10.7
16 Kentucky32167%81.075.3+5.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Metro Atlantic Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Siena32167%85.379.0+6.3
2 Merrimack Warriors32167%65.760.0+5.7
3 Sacred Heart42250%84.868.2+16.5
4 Canisius42250%77.281.5-4.2
5 Iona42250%66.271.5-5.2
6 Quinnipiac42250%68.575.5-7.0
7 Mount St. Mary's21150%60.077.0-17.0
8 Marist31233%70.370.7-0.3
9 Manhattan31233%64.373.0-8.7
10 Fairfield31233%59.075.7-16.7
11 Rider41325%64.572.2-7.8
12 St. Peters4040%47.563.8-16.2
13 Niagara3030%63.084.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Florida434083
Merrimack Warriors262854
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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