PythiaBasketballBETA
Prva LigaRound 6· Kosarkaski centar Drazen Petrovic
Hermes and KK Zagreb will clash in the Prva Liga on 15 November 2026, a game where the balance is razor-thin as neither side holds a clear edge. Hermes, 3-2 overall with 74.2 points scored and 72.6 allowed per game, sits fifth in the standings but has gone undefeated at home, winning all three of its matches with 79.3 points per game and 68.3 points allowed, and has won three of its last five outings, including a 89-81 victory over Dakovo and a 67-59 win over Gorica. KK Zagreb, 4-1 overall, leads the league at second place, averaging 79.6 points scored and 71.4 allowed, and has won four of its last five games, highlighted by a 92-74 triumph over Sonik Puntamika. Their head-to-head record is even, 4-4, with the most recent meeting ending 88-85 in favour of KK Zagreb. Pythia projects a 55% chance for KK Zagreb to win against Hermes' 45%, with a 77-79 scoreline and a total of 156.3 points; the 3.5-point spread favours Hermes, yet the model gives a 55% probability that Hermes will cover, and a 53% chance of the over on the 154.5 line, with a 5% likelihood of overtime. The final game will hinge on whether Hermes can sustain its home dominance against a strong KK Zagreb side.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 74.2 | 72.6 | 146.8 | +1.6 | 60% |
| Season at home (3) | 79.3 | 68.3 | 147.7 | +11.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 66.5 | 79.0 | 145.5 | -12.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.2 | 80.7 | 156.9 | -4.5 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 72.6 | 146.8 | +1.6 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 76.2 | 92.1 | 168.3 | -15.9 | 5% |
| vs Similar (8) | 80.8 | 79.0 | 159.8 | +1.8 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 69.7 | 69.3 | 139.0 | +0.3 | 67% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 79.6 | 71.4 | 151.0 | +8.2 | 80% |
| Season at home (3) | 82.3 | 70.0 | 152.3 | +12.3 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 75.5 | 73.5 | 149.0 | +2.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.0 | 76.7 | 154.7 | +1.3 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.6 | 71.4 | 151.0 | +8.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 72.4 | 80.0 | 152.4 | -7.6 | 30% |
| vs Similar (10) | 76.7 | 77.6 | 154.3 | -0.9 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 88.4 | 75.1 | 163.5 | +13.3 | 90% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.1 | 43.2 | 80.3 | -6.0 | 30% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.0 | 41.3 | 79.3 | -3.3 | 40% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 36.3 | 45.1 | 81.3 | -8.8 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.5 | 40.8 | 78.3 | -3.3 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 35.2 | 70.8 | +0.4 | 60% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (19) | 36.5 | 47.7 | 84.2 | -11.2 | 11% | 79% |
| vs Similar (8) | 38.9 | 36.1 | 75.0 | +2.8 | 62% | 25% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 36.3 | 33.3 | 69.7 | +3.0 | 67% | 0% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.5 | 36.9 | 77.4 | +3.7 | 70% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 41.9 | 35.3 | 77.3 | +6.6 | 80% | 67% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 39.1 | 38.4 | 77.5 | +0.7 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.2 | 36.3 | 75.5 | +2.9 | 70% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 35.0 | 74.6 | +4.6 | 80% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 36.0 | 38.1 | 74.1 | -2.1 | 40% | 40% |
| vs Similar (10) | 40.9 | 36.2 | 77.1 | +4.7 | 80% | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (10) | 44.7 | 36.3 | 81.0 | +8.4 | 90% | 70% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hermes over 70.5 | 74.5% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp |
| Hermes over 71.5 | 71.3% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp |
| Hermes over 69.5 | 77.6% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp |
| Hermes +8.5 | 72.8% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +5.0pp |
| KK Zagreb under 84.5 | 70.9% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +2.2pp |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 29.5 | 15.2 | 53.0% | 30.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 33.9 | 12.0 | 32.7% | 36.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 14.2 | 10.7 | 71.6% | 10.7 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 42.1 | 24.0 | 53.0% | 48.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 24.4 | 6.7 | 32.7% | 20.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.7 | 11.9 | 71.6% | 11.9 |
Hermes
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30/03/25 | KK Zagreb v Hermes | 88-85 |
| 15/12/24 | Hermes v KK Zagreb | 75-79 |
| 24/03/24 | KK Zagreb v Hermes | 82-69 |
| 18/12/23 | Hermes v KK Zagreb | 101-81 |
| 04/03/23 | Hermes v KK Zagreb | 96-91 |
| 03/12/22 | KK Zagreb v Hermes | 84-65 |
| 10/03/22 | Hermes v KK Zagreb | 107-82 |
| 24/10/21 | KK Zagreb v Hermes | 75-102 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/26 | A | Kastela | 73-74 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Dakovo | 89-81 OT |
| 25/10/26 | H | Gorica | 67-59 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Sonik Puntamika | 60-84 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Omis | 82-65 |
| 16/04/25 | H | Sonik Puntamika | 92-111 |
| 12/04/25 | A | Crikvenica | 79-76 OT |
| 06/04/25 | H | Mladost | 64-90 |
| 30/03/25 | A | KK Zagreb | 85-88 |
| 23/03/25 | H | Kastela | 71-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11/26 | H | Sonik Puntamika | 92-74 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Omis | 77-68 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Novi Zagreb | 85-71 |
| 18/10/26 | A | GKK Sibenka | 74-79 |
| 11/10/26 | H | Marsonia | 70-65 |
| 19/04/26 | H | Marsonia | 68-98 |
| 12/04/26 | A | Dakovo | 79-84 |
| 01/04/26 | A | Kastela | 61-85 |
| 28/03/26 | H | Crikvenica | 68-70 |
| 21/03/26 | H | Osijek | 106-73 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWL | 60% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 74.2 | 79.3 | 66.5 |
| Allowed / game | 72.6 | 68.3 | 79.0 |
| Point differential | +1.6 | +11.0 | -12.5 |
| Avg total | 146.8 | 147.7 | 145.5 |
| Over 154.5 | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 80% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 80% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 79.6 | 82.3 | 75.5 |
| Allowed / game | 71.4 | 70.0 | 73.5 |
| Point differential | +8.2 | +12.3 | +2.0 |
| Avg total | 151.0 | 152.3 | 149.0 |
| Over 154.5 | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Win by 10+ | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GKK Sibenka | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 85.2 | 71.3 | +13.8 |
| 2 | KK Zagreb | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 79.6 | 71.4 | +8.2 |
| 3 |  Jazine | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 84.0 | 78.0 | +6.0 |
| 4 |  Novi Zagreb | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 76.7 | 74.8 | +1.8 |
| 5 | Hermes | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 74.2 | 72.6 | +1.6 |
| 6 |  Dakovo | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 88.2 | 85.2 | +3.0 |
| 7 |  Kastela | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 74.0 | 71.8 | +2.2 |
| 8 |  Marsonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 75.5 | 75.8 | -0.3 |
| 9 |  Crikvenica | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 73.0 | 73.8 | -0.8 |
| 10 |  Sonik Puntamika | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 81.2 | 84.3 | -3.2 |
| 11 | Radnik Krizevci | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 77.2 | 75.5 | +1.7 |
| 12 |  Omis | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 71.5 | 75.8 | -4.3 |
| 13 |  Gorica | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 78.7 | 83.2 | -4.5 |
| 14 |  Mladost | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 66.7 | 90.2 | -23.5 |
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