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Hermes vs KK Zagreb Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 11:00
Projected 77-79
Projected total 156.3
Final 70-65
12-20 20-11 22-12 16-22
Position#4
Record3-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game72.6
Hermes 🏆
Croatia
Vs
45%
55%
■ HERM 45%■ KK Z 55%
Pythia win probability
KK Zagreb
Croatia
Position#3
Record4-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game79.6
Allowed / game71.4
CroatiaPrva LigaRound 6· Kosarkaski centar Drazen Petrovic
Other2026-27
Meetings · Hermes v KK Zagreb
15 Nov 2026
HERM70
KK Z65
15 Dec 2024
HERM75
KK Z79
18 Dec 2023
HERM101
KK Z81
04 Mar 2023
HERM96
KK Z91
10 Mar 2022
HERM107
KK Z82
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Hermes and KK Zagreb will clash in the Prva Liga on 15 November 2026, a game where the balance is razor-thin as neither side holds a clear edge. Hermes, 3-2 overall with 74.2 points scored and 72.6 allowed per game, sits fifth in the standings but has gone undefeated at home, winning all three of its matches with 79.3 points per game and 68.3 points allowed, and has won three of its last five outings, including a 89-81 victory over Dakovo and a 67-59 win over Gorica. KK Zagreb, 4-1 overall, leads the league at second place, averaging 79.6 points scored and 71.4 allowed, and has won four of its last five games, highlighted by a 92-74 triumph over Sonik Puntamika. Their head-to-head record is even, 4-4, with the most recent meeting ending 88-85 in favour of KK Zagreb. Pythia projects a 55% chance for KK Zagreb to win against Hermes' 45%, with a 77-79 scoreline and a total of 156.3 points; the 3.5-point spread favours Hermes, yet the model gives a 55% probability that Hermes will cover, and a 53% chance of the over on the 154.5 line, with a 5% likelihood of overtime. The final game will hinge on whether Hermes can sustain its home dominance against a strong KK Zagreb side.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hermes winWon
44.7%fair 2.24
Best odds2.25
Implied41.2%
Edge+3.4pp
KK Zagreb winLost
55.3%fair 1.81
Best odds1.57
Implied58.8%
Edge-3.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

HermesCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHermes
Date
Competition
Kastela
#3
L
71-79
71
79
-8
no box
H23/03
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#8
L
85-88
85
88
-3
no box
A30/03
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
64-90
64
90
-26
no box
H06/04
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
W
79-76 OT
79
76
+3
no box
A12/04
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#9
L
92-111
92
111
-19
no box
H16/04
Prva Liga
Omis
#12
W
82-65
82
65
+17
no box
H11/10
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#10
L
60-84
60
84
-24
no box
A17/10
Prva Liga
Gorica
#13
W
67-59
67
59
+8
no box
H25/10
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#6
W
89-81 OT
89
81
+8
no box
H31/10
Prva Liga
Kastela
#7
L
73-74
73
74
-1
no box
A08/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-19
25-15
17-20
17-25
18-19
22-33
21-17
24-19
20-24
12-23
17-22
15-21
25-17
16-25
21-11
7-16
29-29
18-28
26-30
19-24
18-17
23-17
23-18
18-13
19-14
9-20
9-27
23-23
20-9
20-23
11-12
16-15
17-17
13-24
24-18
21-16
24-16
15-19
22-23
12-16
156.9Avg total
76.2Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)74.272.6146.8+1.660%
Season at home (3)79.368.3147.7+11.0100%
Season away (2)66.579.0145.5-12.50%
Last 10 (10)76.280.7156.9-4.540%
Last 5 (5)74.272.6146.8+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)76.292.1168.3-15.95%
vs Similar ◀ (8)80.879.0159.8+1.850%
vs Weaker (3)69.769.3139.0+0.367%
This opponent (KK Zagreb) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KK ZagrebCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormZagreb
Date
Competition
Osijek
#14
W
106-73
106
73
+33
106avg 76
H21/03
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#8
L
68-70
68
70
-2
65avg 76
H28/03
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
61-85
61
85
-24
44avg 76
A01/04
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#10
L
79-84
79
84
-5
75avg 76
A12/04
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#9
L
68-98
68
98
-30
57avg 76
H19/04
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#8
W
70-65
70
65
+5
no box
H11/10
Prva Liga
GKK Sibenka
#1
L
74-79
74
79
-5
no box
A18/10
Prva Liga
Novi Zagreb
#5
W
85-71
85
71
+14
no box
H25/10
Prva Liga
Omis
#12
W
77-68
77
68
+9
no box
A30/10
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#10
W
92-74
92
74
+18
no box
H07/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-14
14-16
34-23
24-20
19-18
21-19
10-21
18-12
15-20
15-23
8-19
23-23
26-18
9-22
20-19
24-25
27-26
14-12
15-27
12-33
16-19
18-18
21-12
15-16
19-9
21-23
21-20
13-27
20-15
25-20
24-17
16-19
16-22
22-13
22-21
17-12
25-20
16-16
29-19
22-19
154.7Avg total
78.0Scored
76.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)79.671.4151.0+8.280%
Season at home (3)82.370.0152.3+12.3100%
Season away (2)75.573.5149.0+2.050%
Last 10 (10)78.076.7154.7+1.350%
Last 5 (5)79.671.4151.0+8.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)72.480.0152.4-7.630%
vs Similar ◀ (10)76.777.6154.3-0.950%
vs Weaker (10)88.475.1163.5+13.390%
This opponent (Hermes) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
65.2%
Under 149.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 154.5 · main lineActual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
53.4%
@ 1.83+3.4pp
Under 154.5
46.6%
@ 1.83-3.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
41.5%
Under 159.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Hermes total 71.5Actual: Hermes under 71.5
Over 71.5
71.3%
@ 1.37+7.5pp
Under 71.5
28.7%
@ 2.42-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.42
Hermes total 75.5 · main lineActual: Hermes under 75.5
Over 75.5
56.9%
@ 1.71+6.6pp
Under 75.5
43.1%
@ 1.73-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Under
1xBet
1.73
Hermes total 79.5Actual: Hermes under 79.5
Over 79.5
41.5%
@ 2.35+4.4pp
Under 79.5
58.5%
@ 1.39-4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.39
KK Zagreb total 74.5Actual: KK Zagreb under 74.5
Over 74.5
66.3%
@ 1.36+1.9pp
Under 74.5
33.7%
@ 2.46-1.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.46
KK Zagreb total 78.5 · main lineActual: KK Zagreb under 78.5
Over 78.5
51.3%
@ 1.69+0.4pp
Under 78.5
48.7%
@ 1.75-0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Under
1xBet
1.75
KK Zagreb total 82.5Actual: KK Zagreb under 82.5
Over 82.5
36.1%
@ 2.32-1.6pp
Under 82.5
63.9%
@ 1.40+1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.40

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Hermes +0.5Actual: Hermes +0.5
HERM +0.5
44.7%
KK Z -0.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
HERM
No market prices yet.
KK Z
No market prices yet.
Spread Hermes +3.5 · main lineActual: Hermes +3.5
HERM +3.5
55.3%
@ 1.83+5.3pp
KK Z -3.5
44.7%
@ 1.83-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
HERM
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.79
KK Z
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Spread Hermes +6.5Actual: Hermes +6.5
HERM +6.5
66.3%
@ 1.46+5.6pp
KK Z -6.5
33.7%
@ 2.26-5.6pp
Best 5 market prices
HERM
1xBet
1.46
KK Z
1xBet
2.26

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -5.4-5.4Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -0.7-0.7Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -2.2-2.2
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: -5.4-5.4Q2: -0.7-0.7Q3Q3: -0.7-0.7Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: -1.6-1.6Q4: -2.2-2.2
HermesKK Zagreb
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
HermesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kastela
#3
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H23/03
Prva Liga
KK Zagreb
#8
L
40-52
40
52
-12
A30/03
Prva Liga
Mladost
#2
L
32-47
32
47
-15
H06/04
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#11
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A12/04
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#9
L
47-57
47
57
-10
H16/04
Prva Liga
Omis
#12
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H11/10
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#10
L
28-34
28
34
-6
A17/10
Prva Liga
Gorica
#13
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H25/10
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#6
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H31/10
Prva Liga
Kastela
#7
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A08/11
Prva Liga
78.3Avg total
37.5Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)37.143.280.3-6.030%57%
Last 30 at home (15)38.041.379.3-3.340%53%
Last 30 away (15)36.345.181.3-8.820%60%
Last 10 (10)37.540.878.3-3.340%40%
Last 5 (5)35.635.270.8+0.460%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)36.547.784.2-11.211%79%
vs Similar ◀ (8)38.936.175.0+2.862%25%
vs Weaker (3)36.333.369.7+3.067%0%
This opponent (KK Zagreb) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KK ZagrebLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osijek
#14
W
48-30
48
30
+18
H21/03
Prva Liga
Crikvenica
#8
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H28/03
Prva Liga
Kastela
#2
L
30-43
30
43
-13
A01/04
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#10
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/04
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#9
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H19/04
Prva Liga
Marsonia
#8
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H11/10
Prva Liga
GKK Sibenka
#1
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A18/10
Prva Liga
Novi Zagreb
#5
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H25/10
Prva Liga
Omis
#12
W
38-35
38
35
+3
A30/10
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H07/11
Prva Liga
75.5Avg total
39.2Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)40.536.977.4+3.770%53%
Last 30 at home (15)41.935.377.3+6.680%67%
Last 30 away (15)39.138.477.5+0.760%40%
Last 10 (10)39.236.375.5+2.970%50%
Last 5 (5)39.635.074.6+4.680%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)36.038.174.1-2.140%40%
vs Similar ◀ (10)40.936.277.1+4.780%50%
vs Weaker (10)44.736.381.0+8.490%70%
This opponent (Hermes) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Hermes win
HERM win
no forecast
@ 2.12
KK Z win
no forecast
@ 1.64
1st half Spread Hermes +1.5 · main lineActual: Hermes +1.5
HERM +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
KK Z -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
HERM win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
KK Z win + total 154.5
🔒 Pro
🔒 2 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Hermes over 70.574.5%1.32
1xBet
1.32		----+7.5ppLost
Hermes over 71.571.3%1.37
1xBet
1.37		----+7.5ppLost
Hermes over 69.577.6%1.24
1xBet
1.24		----+6.9ppWon
Hermes +8.572.8%1.31
1xBet
1.31		----+5.0ppWon
KK Zagreb under 84.570.9%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+2.2ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Hermestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Hermes: 77.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀47%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.4 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.515.2
51.5%
53.0%30.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.912.0
35.4%
32.7%36.0
🏀 Free throws14.210.7
75.4%
71.7%10.7
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
KK Zagrebtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

KK Zagreb: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.124.0
57.0%
53.0%48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.46.7
27.5%
32.7%20.1
🏀 Free throws18.711.9
63.6%
71.7%11.9
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Hermes
LWWLWLWLLL
KK Zagreb
WWWLWLLLLW
#4
League position
#3
-6.7
Net rating
+2.6
99.1
Offensive rating
86.9
105.8
Defensive rating
84.3
52.4%
Effective FG%
51.2%
49.5%
Opp. effective FG%
47.7%
21.5%
Turnover %
18.8%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.4%
3-point %
27.5%
73.9%
Assist %
63.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 86.9Defence105.8 · 84.3Shooting52.4% · 51.2%3-point %35.4% · 27.5%Ball care21.5% · 18.8%Off. rebounds24.7% · -Free throws0.22 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Hermes   ■ KK Zagreb
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Hermes wins
4
KK Zagreb wins
DateGameScore
30/03/25KK Zagreb v Hermes88-85
15/12/24Hermes v KK Zagreb75-79
24/03/24KK Zagreb v Hermes82-69
18/12/23Hermes v KK Zagreb101-81
04/03/23Hermes v KK Zagreb96-91
03/12/22KK Zagreb v Hermes84-65
10/03/22Hermes v KK Zagreb107-82
24/10/21KK Zagreb v Hermes75-102
Hermeslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26AKastela73-74
31/10/26HDakovo89-81 OT
25/10/26HGorica67-59
17/10/26ASonik Puntamika60-84
11/10/26HOmis82-65
16/04/25HSonik Puntamika92-111
12/04/25ACrikvenica79-76 OT
06/04/25HMladost64-90
30/03/25AKK Zagreb85-88
23/03/25HKastela71-79
KK Zagreblast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HSonik Puntamika92-74
30/10/26AOmis77-68
25/10/26HNovi Zagreb85-71
18/10/26AGKK Sibenka74-79
11/10/26HMarsonia70-65
19/04/26HMarsonia68-98
12/04/26ADakovo79-84
01/04/26AKastela61-85
28/03/26HCrikvenica68-70
21/03/26HOsijek106-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Hermes
Prva Liga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL60%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %60%100%0%
Points / game74.279.366.5
Allowed / game72.668.379.0
Point differential+1.6+11.0-12.5
Avg total146.8147.7145.5
Over 154.520%33%0%
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %20%33%0%
KK Zagreb
Prva Liga 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW80%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%100%50%
Points / game79.682.375.5
Allowed / game71.470.073.5
Point differential+8.2+12.3+2.0
Avg total151.0152.3149.0
Over 154.540%67%0%
Win by 10+40%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 GKK Sibenka660100%85.271.3+13.8
2 KK Zagreb54180%79.671.4+8.2
3 Jazine64267%84.078.0+6.0
4 Novi Zagreb64267%76.774.8+1.8
5 Hermes53260%74.272.6+1.6
6 Dakovo63350%88.285.2+3.0
7 Kastela63350%74.071.8+2.2
8 Marsonia63350%75.575.8-0.3
9 Crikvenica63350%73.073.8-0.8
10 Sonik Puntamika63350%81.284.3-3.2
11 Radnik Krizevci62433%77.275.5+1.7
12 Omis62433%71.575.8-4.3
13 Gorica61517%78.783.2-4.5
14 Mladost6060%66.790.2-23.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Hermes1220221670
KK Zagreb2011122265
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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