PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
James Madison hosts Mercyhurst Lakers on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names James Madison the clear favourite with a 94% chance of winning, reflecting their 1-2 record and 76.0 points per game against 78.7 allowed, while Mercyhurst struggles at 1-3 and 61.2 points for and 70.8 against. James Madison's single home game was a 77-86 loss, and their last five games include a 71-61 win over Delaware, a 80-89 loss to Kentucky, and a 77-86 loss to Miami (Ohio). Mercyhurst's road record is 0-3, with recent outings of a 57-72 loss to Penn State, a 89-50 home win over Penn State-Shenango, and a 56-83 loss to Notre Dame. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 80-62 score for James Madison, a total of 142.3 points, and a 59% probability that the home team will cover the -15.5 line; the over on the 140.0 total has a 55% chance. The game has a 1% likelihood of going into overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 76.0 | 78.7 | 154.7 | -2.7 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 77.0 | 86.0 | 163.0 | -9.0 | 0% |
| Season away (2) | 75.5 | 75.0 | 150.5 | +0.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.1 | 71.7 | 147.8 | +4.4 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.0 | 78.8 | 157.8 | +0.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 72.6 | 77.4 | 150.0 | -4.9 | 44% |
| vs Similar (16) | 75.1 | 73.6 | 148.8 | +1.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 75.2 | 68.4 | 143.6 | +6.8 | 80% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 61.2 | 70.8 | 132.0 | -9.5 | 25% |
| Season at home (1) | 89.0 | 50.0 | 139.0 | +39.0 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 52.0 | 77.7 | 129.7 | -25.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.5 | 70.9 | 139.4 | -2.4 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 63.0 | 72.4 | 135.4 | -9.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 52.0 | 77.7 | 129.7 | -25.7 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 67.8 | 67.6 | 135.4 | +0.2 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 74.9 | 68.6 | 143.5 | +6.3 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.5 | 33.3 | 67.8 | +1.2 | 60% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 36.0 | 32.0 | 68.0 | +4.0 | 80% | 53% |
| Last 30 away (15) | 32.9 | 34.6 | 67.5 | -1.7 | 40% | 53% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.7 | 31.2 | 66.9 | +4.5 | 70% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.0 | 32.4 | 69.4 | +4.6 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 33.8 | 33.8 | 67.6 | +0.0 | 67% | 56% |
| vs Similar (16) | 34.1 | 34.8 | 68.8 | -0.7 | 44% | 62% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 37.0 | 27.8 | 64.8 | +9.2 | 100% | 20% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.3 | 31.1 | 63.3 | +1.2 | 47% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.1 | 27.6 | 63.8 | +8.5 | 79% | 36% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 28.9 | 34.1 | 62.9 | -5.2 | 19% | 19% |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.3 | 33.0 | 64.3 | -1.7 | 30% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 30.0 | 34.8 | 64.8 | -4.8 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (3) | 22.0 | 35.7 | 57.7 | -13.7 | 0% | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 30.6 | 31.6 | 62.2 | -1.1 | 38% | 19% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 36.9 | 29.4 | 66.3 | +7.5 | 70% | 40% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■■■■■■ ■■■ | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% | ■■% |
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Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Delaware | 71-61 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Kentucky | 80-89 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Miami (Ohio) | 77-86 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Southern Miss | 80-86 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Louisiana Lafayette | 87-72 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Coastal Carolina | 68-69 |
| 26/02/26 | H | Georgia Southern | 82-66 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Georgia State | 80-65 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Coastal Carolina | 67-65 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Appalachian State | 69-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | A | Penn State | 57-72 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Penn State-Shenango | 89-50 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Notre Dame | 56-83 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Marquette | 43-78 |
| 10/03/26 | A | LIU Sharks | 70-79 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Stonehill | 56-51 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson | 70-61 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Stonehill | 75-72 OT |
| 27/02/26 | A | Central Connecticut State | 78-80 |
| 21/02/26 | H | LIU Sharks | 91-83 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| Points / game | 76.0 | 77.0 | 75.5 |
| Allowed / game | 78.7 | 86.0 | 75.0 |
| Point differential | -2.7 | -9.0 | +0.5 |
| Avg total | 154.7 | 163.0 | 150.5 |
| Over 138.5 | 67% | 100% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWL | 25% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 61.2 | 89.0 | 52.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.8 | 50.0 | 77.7 |
| Point differential | -9.5 | +39.0 | -25.7 |
| Avg total | 132.0 | 139.0 | 129.7 |
| Over 138.5 | 50% | 100% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Texas State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 62.8 | +27.0 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 58.4 | +18.6 |
| 3 |  Appalachian State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.0 | 60.2 | +8.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Miss | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.0 | 70.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 |  Arkansas State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.2 | 79.5 | +0.8 |
| 6 |  Coastal Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 |
| 7 |  South Alabama | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 74.6 | 76.0 | -1.4 |
| 8 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 9 | James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 11 |  Marshall | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.2 | 76.0 | +2.2 |
| 12 |  Georgia Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 82.8 | -5.0 |
| 13 |  Troy | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.0 | 78.0 | -12.0 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 75.0 | 87.7 | -12.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Le Moyne | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 76.0 | 72.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 |  Central Connecticut State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 65.5 | 79.0 | -13.5 |
| 3 |  Chicago State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.0 | 78.8 | -10.8 |
| 4 |  Fairleigh Dickinson | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.2 | 85.0 | -16.8 |
| 5 |  New Haven Chargers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 58.3 | 70.0 | -11.7 |
| 6 |  Wagner | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.2 | 73.2 | -7.0 |
| 7 | Mercyhurst Lakers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.2 | 70.8 | -9.5 |
| 8 |  Stonehill | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 59.8 | 75.5 | -15.8 |
| 9 |  LIU Sharks | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.8 | 75.0 | -14.2 |
| 10 |  St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
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