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James Madison vs Mercyhurst Lakers Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 80-62
Projected total 142.3
In play
Position#286
Record1-2
FormWLLLW
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game78.7
James Madison
USA
Vs
94%
■ JAME 94%■ MERC 6%
Pythia win probability
Mercyhurst Lakers
USA
Position#318
Record1-3
FormLLLWL
Points / game61.2
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

James Madison hosts Mercyhurst Lakers on 15 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names James Madison the clear favourite with a 94% chance of winning, reflecting their 1-2 record and 76.0 points per game against 78.7 allowed, while Mercyhurst struggles at 1-3 and 61.2 points for and 70.8 against. James Madison's single home game was a 77-86 loss, and their last five games include a 71-61 win over Delaware, a 80-89 loss to Kentucky, and a 77-86 loss to Miami (Ohio). Mercyhurst's road record is 0-3, with recent outings of a 57-72 loss to Penn State, a 89-50 home win over Penn State-Shenango, and a 56-83 loss to Notre Dame. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 80-62 score for James Madison, a total of 142.3 points, and a 59% probability that the home team will cover the -15.5 line; the over on the 140.0 total has a 55% chance. The game has a 1% likelihood of going into overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

James Madison win
94.0%fair 1.06
Best odds1.13
Implied87.7%
Edge+6.3pp
Mercyhurst Lakers win
6.0%fair 16.74
Best odds8.00
Implied12.3%
Edge-6.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

James MadisonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Appalachian State
#119
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H14/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
67-65
67
65
+2
A19/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
80-65
80
65
+15
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
82-66
82
66
+16
H26/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
87-72
87
72
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
80-86
80
86
-6
A05/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#74
L
77-86
77
86
-9
H03/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#136
L
80-89
80
89
-9
A07/11
NCAA
Delaware
#198
W
71-61
71
61
+10
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-24
40-34
32-32
35-33
40-26
40-39
38-37
44-29
33-31
35-38
37-27
50-45
33-35
47-51
41-35
36-51
39-39
41-50
35-26
36-35
147.8Avg total
76.1Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)76.078.7154.7-2.733%
Season at home (1)77.086.0163.0-9.00%
Season away (2)75.575.0150.5+0.550%
Last 10 (10)76.171.7147.8+4.460%
Last 5 (5)79.078.8157.8+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)72.677.4150.0-4.944%
vs Similar (16)75.173.6148.8+1.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)75.268.4143.6+6.880%
This opponent (Mercyhurst Lakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mercyhurst LakersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LIU Sharks
#59
W
91-83
91
83
+8
H21/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
78-80
78
80
-2
A27/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
75-72 OT
75
72
+3
A28/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
70-61
70
61
+9
H05/03
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H07/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
70-79
70
79
-9
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#145
L
43-78
43
78
-35
A03/11
NCAA
Notre Dame
#34
L
56-83
56
83
-27
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Shenango
#449
W
89-50
89
50
+39
H07/11
NCAA
Penn State
#177
L
57-72
57
72
-15
A12/11
NCAA
1H
2H
45-45
46-38
30-34
48-46
30-30
32-32
35-28
35-33
23-19
33-32
40-42
30-37
14-36
29-42
23-38
33-45
44-25
45-25
29-33
28-39
139.4Avg total
68.5Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)61.270.8132.0-9.525%
Season at home (1)89.050.0139.0+39.0100%
Season away (3)52.077.7129.7-25.70%
Last 10 (10)68.570.9139.4-2.450%
Last 5 (5)63.072.4135.4-9.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)52.077.7129.7-25.70%
vs Similar (16)67.867.6135.4+0.250%
vs Weaker (10)74.968.6143.5+6.360%
This opponent (James Madison) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 132.5
Over 132.5
72.6%
@ 1.45+7.4pp
Under 132.5
27.4%
@ 2.80-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.38
Under
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.52
Over/Under 137.5 · main line
Over 137.5
61.4%
@ 1.88+10.8pp
Under 137.5
38.6%
@ 2.00-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Over/Under 142.5
Over 142.5
49.2%
@ 2.40+10.6pp
Under 142.5
50.8%
@ 1.52-10.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

James Madison total 73
Over 73
77.6%
Under 73
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
James Madison total 77 · main line
Over 77
63.3%
@ 1.87+13.3pp
Under 77
36.7%
@ 1.87-13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
James Madison total 81
Over 81
46.7%
Under 81
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 57
Over 57
69.7%
Under 57
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercyhurst Lakers total 61 · main line
Over 61
53.9%
@ 1.85+3.9pp
Under 61
46.1%
@ 1.85-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Mercyhurst Lakers total 65
Over 65
37.5%
Under 65
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread James Madison -15
JAME -15
61.4%
@ 2.14+16.5pp
MERC +15
38.6%
@ 1.91-16.5pp
Best 5 market prices
JAME
Pinnacle
2.14
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.91
SBO
1.88
1xBet
1.80
MERC
1xBet
1.91
SBO
1.81
Marathon Be
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.74
Spread James Madison -12 · main line
JAME -12
71.4%
@ 1.91+21.1pp
MERC +12
28.6%
@ 2.25-21.1pp
Best 5 market prices
JAME
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.85
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.57
MERC
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread James Madison -9
JAME -9
79.9%
@ 1.34+10.4pp
MERC +9
20.1%
@ 3.05-10.4pp
Best 5 market prices
JAME
Bet365
1.34
MERC
Bet365
3.05

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: -1.0-1.0
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.5+4.51st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: -1.0-1.0
James MadisonMercyhurst Lakers
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
James MadisonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Appalachian State
#119
W
29-24
29
24
+5
H14/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A19/02
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
40-26
40
26
+14
A21/02
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H28/02
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H04/03
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A05/03
NCAA
Miami (Ohio)
#74
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H03/11
NCAA
Kentucky
#136
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A07/11
NCAA
Delaware
#198
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A12/11
NCAA
66.9Avg total
35.7Scored
31.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)34.533.367.8+1.260%57%
Last 30 at home (15)36.032.068.0+4.080%53%
Last 30 away (15)32.934.667.5-1.740%60%
Last 10 (10)35.731.266.9+4.570%50%
Last 5 (5)37.032.469.4+4.660%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.833.867.6+0.067%56%
vs Similar (16)34.134.868.8-0.744%62%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)37.027.864.8+9.2100%40%
This opponent (Mercyhurst Lakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mercyhurst LakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LIU Sharks
#59
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A27/02
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A28/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H05/03
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
23-19
23
19
+4
H07/03
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A10/03
NCAA
Marquette
#145
L
14-36
14
36
-22
A03/11
NCAA
Notre Dame
#34
L
23-38
23
38
-15
A06/11
NCAA
Penn State-Shenango
#449
W
44-25
44
25
+19
H07/11
NCAA
Penn State
#177
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A12/11
NCAA
64.3Avg total
31.3Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 65.5
Last 30 (30)32.331.163.3+1.247%30%
Last 30 at home (14)36.127.663.8+8.579%43%
Last 30 away (16)28.934.162.9-5.219%19%
Last 10 (10)31.333.064.3-1.730%30%
Last 5 (5)30.034.864.8-4.820%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)22.035.757.7-13.70%0%
vs Similar (16)30.631.662.2-1.138%25%
vs Weaker (10)36.929.466.3+7.570%40%
This opponent (James Madison) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
JAME win
no forecast
@ 1.18
MERC win
no forecast
@ 5.50
1st half Spread James Madison -8.5 · main line
JAME -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.96
MERC +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Over/Under 65.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
James Madison 1st half total 37 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Mercyhurst Lakers 1st half total 29.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half: JAME + total 65.5
JAME & over
no forecast
@ 2.25
JAME & under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half: Draw + total 65.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 34.00
1st half: MERC + total 65.5
MERC & over
no forecast
@ 12.00
MERC & under
no forecast
@ 11.00
1st half Over/Under 67
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread James Madison -9.5
JAME -9.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
MERC +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half Spread James Madison -7.5
JAME -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
MERC +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Over/Under 63.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.57
Under
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread James Madison -10.5
JAME -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
MERC +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
1st half Spread James Madison -6.5
JAME -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
MERC +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
JAME
no forecast
@ 1.21
Draw
no forecast
@ 23.00
MERC
no forecast
@ 5.75

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
JAME win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
MERC win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: JAME leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MERC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
James Madison -1271.4%1.78
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.57		-+21.1pp
James Madison over 7570.9%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		----+20.9pp
James Madison -11.572.3%1.68
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.47		+19.8pp
Over 133.570.5%1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44		---+7.9pp
Mercyhurst Lakers over 56.570.8%1.31
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.28		---+0.5pp
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
James Madison wins
0
Mercyhurst Lakers wins
No previous meetings.
James Madisonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ADelaware71-61
07/11/26AKentucky80-89
03/11/26HMiami (Ohio)77-86
05/03/26ASouthern Miss80-86
04/03/26HLouisiana Lafayette87-72
28/02/26HCoastal Carolina68-69
26/02/26HGeorgia Southern82-66
21/02/26AGeorgia State80-65
19/02/26ACoastal Carolina67-65
14/02/26HAppalachian State69-58
Mercyhurst Lakerslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26APenn State57-72
07/11/26HPenn State-Shenango89-50
06/11/26ANotre Dame56-83
03/11/26AMarquette43-78
10/03/26ALIU Sharks70-79
07/03/26HStonehill56-51
05/03/26HFairleigh Dickinson70-61
28/02/26AStonehill75-72 OT
27/02/26ACentral Connecticut State78-80
21/02/26HLIU Sharks91-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

James Madison
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeL0%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %33%0%50%
Points / game76.077.075.5
Allowed / game78.786.075.0
Point differential-2.7-9.0+0.5
Avg total154.7163.0150.5
Over 137.567%100%50%
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mercyhurst Lakers
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWL25%
HomeW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games413
Win %25%100%0%
Points / game61.289.052.0
Allowed / game70.850.077.7
Point differential-9.5+39.0-25.7
Avg total132.0139.0129.7
Over 137.550%100%33%
Win by 10+25%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas State440100%89.862.8+27.0
2 Old Dominion550100%77.058.4+18.6
3 Appalachian State42250%69.060.2+8.8
4 Southern Miss42250%72.070.8+1.2
5 Arkansas State42250%80.279.5+0.8
6 Coastal Carolina42250%72.573.5-1.0
7 Georgia State52340%84.272.4+11.8
8 South Alabama52340%74.676.0-1.4
9 Louisiana Lafayette31233%59.060.3-1.3
10 James Madison31233%76.078.7-2.7
11 Marshall41325%78.276.0+2.2
12 Georgia Southern41325%77.882.8-5.0
13 Troy41325%66.078.0-12.0
14 Louisiana Monroe61517%75.087.7-12.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Central Connecticut State53260%66.876.6-9.8
2 Le Moyne42250%76.072.5+3.5
3 Chicago State52340%68.078.8-10.8
4 Fairleigh Dickinson52340%68.285.0-16.8
5 New Haven Chargers31233%58.370.0-11.7
6 Wagner41325%66.273.2-7.0
7 Mercyhurst Lakers41325%61.270.8-9.5
8 Stonehill41325%59.875.5-15.8
9 LIU Sharks5050%60.875.0-14.2
10 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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