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Jurbarkas vs Gargzdai Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 85-89
Projected total 174.0
Scheduled
Position#3
Record1-2
FormWWWWL
Points / game78.3
Allowed / game83.0
Jurbarkas
Lithuania
Vs
38%
62%
■ JURB 38%■ GAR 62%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.0/10
Below normal
Gargzdai
Lithuania
Position#1
Record3-0
FormWWLWL
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game79.7
LithuaniaKing Mindaugas Cup· Jurbarko Antano Giedraicio Gymnasium Sport Hall
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

On 17 November 2026 the King Mindaugas Cup will see Jurbarkas host Gargzdai, with the model favouring the visitors who are undefeated in the competition, 3-0, and scoring 87.0 points per game while allowing 79.7, a stark contrast to Jurbarkas' 1-2 record, 78.3 points for and 83.0 against. Jurbarkas have won two of their three games overall, 1-1 at home, and have a 4-1 record over the last five outings, highlighted by a 102-101 win over Telsiai at home on 7 November, a 97-86 victory over Omega-Tauras away on 5 November, and a 91-77 win at home against Taurage on 3 November. Gargzdai's road form is perfect, 1-0, with a 101.0 points per game and 86.0 allowed, and they have won three of their last five games, including a 91-70 win over Jonava away on 8 November and a 81-78 win at home over Taurage on 27 October, though they lost 76-87 to Nevezis away on 2 November. The only previous meeting ended with Gargzdai defeating Jurbarkas 79-75 on 6 October. The Pythia model assigns a 38% chance to Jurbarkas and a 62% chance to Gargzdai, projecting a 85-89 scoreline and a total of 174.0 points, with a 5% probability of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jurbarkas win
38.5%fair 2.60
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Gargzdai win
61.5%fair 1.62
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

JurbarkasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJurbarkas
Date
Competition
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
81-72
81
72
+9
69avg 80
H17/10
NKL
Nevezis
#2
L
69-93
69
93
-24
59avg 80
H20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
W
93-79
93
79
+14
88avg 80
A22/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
W
86-79
86
79
+7
76avg 80
A29/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
72-79
72
79
-7
62avg 80
H31/10
NKL
Taurage
#4
W
91-77
91
77
+14
no box
H03/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
97-86
97
86
+11
no box
A05/11
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
102-101
102
101
+1
no box
H07/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
93-82
93
82
+11
no box
H12/11
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
67-82
67
82
-15
no box
A14/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
19-17
20-23
26-19
20-27
25-21
13-24
11-21
26-22
19-23
26-19
22-15
21-23
19-18
27-25
19-13
21-22
12-14
19-21
20-22
28-21
15-18
23-13
25-25
38-15
18-24
16-22
25-25
27-25
32-23
21-26
22-27
21-16
23-11
22-29
27-26
20-17
12-20
12-17
23-28
168.1Avg total
85.1Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)78.383.0161.3-4.733%
Season at home (2)80.085.0165.0-5.050%
Season away (1)75.079.0154.0-4.00%
Last 10 (10)85.183.0168.1+2.170%
Last 5 (5)90.085.6175.6+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)80.196.0176.1-15.929%
vs Similar (6)85.575.7161.2+9.8100%
vs Weaker (17)90.579.9170.5+10.688%
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGargzdai
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
W
105-102
105
102
+3
96avg 79
A03/10
LKL
Jurbarkas
#3
W
79-75
79
75
+4
65avg 79
H06/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Taurage
#9
W
102-82
102
82
+20
97avg 79
A11/10
LKL
Nevezis
#2
W
101-86
101
86
+15
103avg 79
A14/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#8
L
90-100
90
100
-10
80avg 79
A18/10
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
W
83-80
83
80
+3
81avg 79
H24/10
LKL
Taurage
#4
W
81-78
81
78
+3
74avg 79
H27/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#10
L
76-87
76
87
-11
no box
A02/11
LKL
Jonava
#7
W
91-70
91
70
+21
no box
A08/11
LKL
Siauliai
#6
L
82-97
82
97
-15
no box
A14/11
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-25
20-23
27-32
27-22
16-20
29-21
18-24
16-10
22-29
29-19
24-20
27-14
18-18
27-20
30-25
26-23
25-31
26-26
19-20
20-23
27-14
12-23
16-22
28-21
17-15
24-26
23-9
17-28
25-22
17-27
19-18
15-20
17-20
20-16
30-18
24-16
25-28
16-19
22-24
19-26
174.7Avg total
89.0Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)87.079.7166.7+7.3100%
Season at home (2)80.076.5156.5+3.5100%
Season away (1)101.086.0187.0+15.0100%
Last 10 (10)89.085.7174.7+3.370%
Last 5 (5)82.682.4165.0+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)78.586.5165.0-7.936%
vs Similar (10)90.888.3179.1+2.570%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)89.084.7173.7+4.367%
This opponent (Jurbarkas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166
Over 166
68.1%
Under 166
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171
Over 171
56.4%
Under 171
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176
Over 176
44.1%
Under 176
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Jurbarkas total 82.5
Over 82.5
60.2%
Under 82.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jurbarkas total 86.5
Over 86.5
45.0%
Under 86.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jurbarkas total 90.5
Over 90.5
30.6%
Under 90.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gargzdai total 80.5
Over 80.5
78.5%
Under 80.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gargzdai total 84.5
Over 84.5
65.5%
Under 84.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gargzdai total 88.5
Over 88.5
50.4%
Under 88.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Jurbarkas -3
JURB -3
29.9%
GAR +3
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
JURB
No market prices yet.
GAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Jurbarkas 0
JURB 0
38.5%
GAR 0
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
JURB
No market prices yet.
GAR
No market prices yet.
Spread Jurbarkas +3
JURB +3
47.2%
GAR -3
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
JURB
No market prices yet.
GAR
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: +1.6+1.6
JurbarkasGargzdai
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
JurbarkasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H17/10
NKL
Nevezis
#2
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A22/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A29/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H31/10
NKL
Taurage
#4
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H03/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A05/11
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H07/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
44-27
44
27
+17
H12/11
NKL
Neptunas 2
#6
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A14/11
NKL
82.2Avg total
43.2Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.638.682.2+5.063%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.437.581.9+6.973%-
Last 30 away (15)42.739.782.5+3.053%-
Last 10 (10)43.239.082.2+4.250%-
Last 5 (5)46.838.084.8+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)41.447.689.0-6.129%-
vs Similar (6)44.036.280.2+7.883%-
vs Weaker (17)44.335.880.1+8.571%-
This opponent (Gargzdai) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GargzdaiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rytas
#2
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A03/10
LKL
Jurbarkas
#3
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H06/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Taurage
#9
W
51-48
51
48
+3
A11/10
LKL
Nevezis
#2
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A14/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Juventus
#8
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A18/10
LKL
Lietkabelis
#4
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H24/10
LKL
Taurage
#4
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H27/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Nevezis
#10
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A02/11
LKL
Jonava
#7
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A08/11
LKL
Siauliai
#6
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A14/11
LKL
88.5Avg total
44.3Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.944.885.7-3.930%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.643.781.3-6.113%-
Last 30 away (15)44.145.990.0-1.747%-
Last 10 (10)44.344.288.5+0.160%-
Last 5 (5)40.042.082.0-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)39.144.683.7-5.518%-
vs Similar (10)41.345.486.7-4.130%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)42.644.386.9-1.844%-
This opponent (Jurbarkas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Jurbarkastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Jurbarkas: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.0 points a game
54%
26%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.420.7
51.2%
52.4%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.79.2
30.0%
28.5%27.6
🏀 Free throws21.314.7
69.0%
72.6%14.7
They take 71.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gargzdaitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gargzdai: 88.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.0 points a game
54%
26%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.125.2
55.9%
52.4%50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.18.0
34.6%
28.5%24.0
🏀 Free throws19.814.0
70.7%
72.6%14.0
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Jurbarkas
LWWWWLWWLW
Gargzdai
LWLWWLWWWW
#3
League position
#1
+8.7
Net rating
+3.6
90.6
Offensive rating
99.4
81.9
Defensive rating
95.8
48.5%
Effective FG%
54.5%
46.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.8%
14.8%
Turnover %
13.1%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.29
30.0%
3-point %
34.6%
69.6%
Assist %
60.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence90.6 · 99.4Defence81.9 · 95.8Shooting48.5% · 54.5%3-point %30.0% · 34.6%Ball care14.8% · 13.1%Free throws0.30 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Jurbarkas   ■ Gargzdai
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Jurbarkas wins
1
Gargzdai wins
DateGameScore
06/10/26Gargzdai v Jurbarkas79-75
Jurbarkaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ANeptunas 267-82
12/11/26HPlunges Olimpas93-82
07/11/26HTelsiai102-101
05/11/26AOmega-Tauras97-86
03/11/26HTaurage91-77
31/10/26HSilute72-79
29/10/26AKretinga86-79
22/10/26AZalgiris Kaunas 293-79
20/10/26HNevezis69-93
17/10/26HKedainiai BC81-72
Gargzdailast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASiauliai82-97
08/11/26AJonava91-70
02/11/26ANevezis76-87
27/10/26HTaurage81-78
24/10/26HLietkabelis83-80
18/10/26AJuventus90-100
14/10/26ANevezis101-86
11/10/26ATaurage102-82
06/10/26HJurbarkas79-75
03/10/26ARytas105-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Jurbarkas
King Mindaugas Cup 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLW33%
HomeLW50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game78.380.075.0
Allowed / game83.085.079.0
Point differential-4.7-5.0-4.0
Avg total161.3165.0154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Gargzdai
King Mindaugas Cup 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game87.080.0101.0
Allowed / game79.776.586.0
Point differential+7.3+3.5+15.0
Avg total166.7156.5187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Gargzdai330100%87.079.7+7.3
2 Nevezis42250%86.282.5+3.8
3 Jurbarkas31233%78.383.0-4.7
4 Taurage41325%78.884.5-5.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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