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Neptunas 2 vs Jurbarkas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 79-78
Projected total 157.1
Final 82-67
17-20 20-12 17-12 28-23
Position#6
Record9-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game74.7
Neptunas 2 🏆
Lithuania
Vs
52%
48%
■ NEPT 52%■ JURB 48%
Pythia win probability
Jurbarkas
Lithuania
Position#2
Record11-1
FormLWWWW
Points / game90.4
Allowed / game78.0
LithuaniaNKLRound 14· Klaip
Other2026-27
Meetings · Neptunas 2 v Jurbarkas
14 Nov 2026
NEPT82
JURB67
24 Jan 2026
NEPT84
JURB82
24 Oct 2024
NEPT73
JURB77
07 Oct 2023
NEPT82
JURB90
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Neptunas 2 will host Jurbarkas on 14 November 2026 in the NKL, a contest where the margin is razor-thin as the two sides are almost evenly matched. Neptunas 2 sit sixth with a 9-4 record, averaging 78.1 points and conceding 74.7, while Jurbarkas lead the league at second with an 11-1 record, scoring 90.4 and allowing 78.0. Neptunas 2's home form is balanced at 3-3, 71.5 points for and 76.5 against, but they have won four of their last five outings, including a 77-71 win over Kedainiai BC and an 83-74 victory over Kauno Atletas, though they suffered a 75-94 loss to Suduva-Mantinga at home. Jurbarkas remain unbeaten on the road, 6-0, with 92.2 points for and 76.0 against, and they have also won four of their last five, highlighted by a 93-82 win over Plunges Olimpas and a 102-101 win over Telsiai. Historically, Jurbarkas have edged Neptunas 2 4-3 in seven meetings, most recently defeating them 69-63 on 5 March 2026. Pythia gives Neptunas 2 a 52% chance to win versus 48% for Jurbarkas, projects a 79-78 score and a total of 157.1 points, with a 4.5-point line and a 66% probability that Neptunas 2 will cover; the 156.5-point total has a 51% chance of going over, and there is a 5% likelihood of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Jurbarkas can translate their road dominance into a decisive win at Neptunas 2's venue.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas 2 winWon
51.6%fair 1.94
Best odds2.22
Implied42.0%
Edge+9.5pp
Jurbarkas winLost
48.4%fair 2.06
Best odds1.70
Implied58.0%
Edge-9.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Neptunas 2LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 Form2
Date
Competition
Silute
#7
W
73-70
73
70
+3
69avg 71
H10/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
72-85
72
85
-13
62avg 71
H15/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
90-77
90
77
+13
86avg 71
A17/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
W
78-77
78
77
+1
75avg 71
H22/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
74-62
74
62
+12
69avg 71
A24/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
59-57
59
57
+2
42avg 71
H29/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
87-64
87
64
+23
no box
A03/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
75-94
75
94
-19
no box
H05/11
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
W
83-74
83
74
+9
no box
A07/11
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
77-71
77
71
+6
no box
A12/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-13
15-20
26-20
14-17
10-18
21-23
22-20
19-24
27-24
25-24
23-16
15-13
22-17
31-17
14-23
11-20
23-18
15-16
18-16
18-12
13-17
19-19
10-11
17-10
20-9
23-21
21-16
23-18
20-23
13-24
20-18
22-29
19-17
20-22
13-23
31-12
19-12
18-11
18-24
22-24
149.9Avg total
76.8Scored
73.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)78.174.7152.8+3.469%
Season at home (6)71.576.5148.0-5.050%
Season away (7)83.773.1156.9+10.686%
Last 10 (10)76.873.1149.9+3.780%
Last 5 (5)76.272.0148.2+4.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)72.476.6149.0-4.238%
vs Similar (11)80.077.2157.2+2.873%
vs Weaker (11)83.572.7156.3+10.882%
This opponent (Jurbarkas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
JurbarkasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJurbarkas
Date
Competition
Rytas 2
#18
W
84-72
84
72
+12
83avg 80
A15/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
81-72
81
72
+9
69avg 80
H17/10
NKL
Nevezis
#2
L
69-93
69
93
-24
59avg 80
H20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
W
93-79
93
79
+14
88avg 80
A22/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
W
86-79
86
79
+7
76avg 80
A29/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
72-79
72
79
-7
62avg 80
H31/10
NKL
Taurage
#4
W
91-77
91
77
+14
no box
H03/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
97-86
97
86
+11
no box
A05/11
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
102-101
102
101
+1
no box
H07/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
93-82
93
82
+11
no box
H12/11
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
24-11
18-18
22-24
16-13
19-17
20-23
26-19
20-27
25-21
13-24
11-21
26-22
19-23
26-19
22-15
21-23
19-18
27-25
19-13
21-22
12-14
19-21
20-22
28-21
15-18
23-13
25-25
38-15
18-24
16-22
25-25
27-25
32-23
21-26
22-27
21-16
23-11
22-29
27-26
168.8Avg total
86.8Scored
82.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)90.478.0168.4+12.492%
Season at home (6)88.780.0168.7+8.783%
Season away (6)92.276.0168.2+16.2100%
Last 10 (10)86.882.0168.8+4.880%
Last 5 (5)91.085.0176.0+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)80.196.0176.1-15.929%
vs Similar (7)83.475.4158.9+8.086%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)92.079.8171.8+12.294%
This opponent (Neptunas 2) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Under 151
Over 151
64.1%
Under 151
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 156.25 · main lineActual: Under 156.25
Over 156.25
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under 156.25
no forecast
@ 1.81
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.81
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
39.8%
Under 161
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Neptunas 2 total 72Actual: Neptunas 2 over 72
Over 72
75.1%
Under 72
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 76 · main lineActual: Neptunas 2 over 76
Over 76
60.8%
@ 1.72+10.8pp
Under 76
39.2%
@ 1.72-10.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
1.72
Neptunas 2 total 80Actual: Neptunas 2 over 80
Over 80
44.9%
Under 80
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jurbarkas total 75Actual: Jurbarkas under 75
Over 75
62.9%
Under 75
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jurbarkas total 79 · main lineActual: Jurbarkas under 79
Over 79
47.1%
@ 1.72-2.9pp
Under 79
52.9%
@ 1.72+2.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
1.72
Jurbarkas total 83Actual: Jurbarkas under 83
Over 83
31.8%
Under 83
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Neptunas 2 0Actual: Neptunas 2 0
NEPT 0
51.6%
JURB 0
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
NEPT
No market prices yet.
JURB
No market prices yet.
Spread Neptunas 2 +3 · main lineActual: Neptunas 2 +3
NEPT +3
60.7%
@ 1.84+10.1pp
JURB -3
39.3%
@ 1.88-10.1pp
Best 5 market prices
NEPT
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.83
JURB
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Spread Neptunas 2 +6Actual: Neptunas 2 +6
NEPT +6
71.3%
@ 1.62+15.2pp
JURB -6
28.7%
@ 2.07-15.2pp
Best 5 market prices
NEPT
Pinnacle
1.62
JURB
Pinnacle
2.07

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: +0.2+0.2
Neptunas 2Jurbarkas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Neptunas 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Silute
#7
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H10/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H15/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A17/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H22/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A24/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H29/10
NKL
Ukmerges Stekas
#13
W
43-30
43
30
+13
A03/11
NKL
Suduva-Mantinga
#4
L
33-47
33
47
-14
H05/11
NKL
Kauno Atletas
#17
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A07/11
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
37-23
37
23
+14
A12/11
NKL
75.6Avg total
39.1Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)41.638.079.5+3.673%47%
Last 30 at home (13)41.739.881.5+1.954%54%
Last 30 away (17)41.536.678.1+4.988%41%
Last 10 (10)39.136.575.6+2.650%30%
Last 5 (5)36.835.071.8+1.840%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)36.437.874.1-1.450%25%
vs Similar (11)43.539.482.9+4.273%64%
vs Weaker (11)43.436.780.1+6.691%45%
This opponent (Jurbarkas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
JurbarkasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rytas 2
#18
W
44-30
44
30
+14
A15/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#14
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H17/10
NKL
Nevezis
#2
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H20/10
King Mindaugas Cup
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#12
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A22/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A29/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H31/10
NKL
Taurage
#4
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H03/11
King Mindaugas Cup
Omega-Tauras
#9
W
56-39
56
39
+17
A05/11
NKL
Telsiai
#1
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H07/11
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#10
W
44-27
44
27
+17
H12/11
NKL
82.7Avg total
44.4Scored
38.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)43.838.582.3+5.367%67%
Last 30 at home (15)44.437.581.9+6.973%53%
Last 30 away (15)43.239.582.7+3.760%80%
Last 10 (10)44.438.382.7+6.160%60%
Last 5 (5)47.037.884.8+9.280%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)41.447.689.0-6.129%86%
vs Similar (7)43.335.779.0+7.686%57%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)45.135.780.8+9.475%62%
This opponent (Neptunas 2) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Neptunas 2 win
NEPT win
no forecast
@ 2.00
JURB win
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Neptunas 2 +2.5 · main lineActual: Neptunas 2 +2.5
NEPT +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
JURB -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 78.5 · main lineActual: Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Neptunas 2 1st half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Neptunas 2 under 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Jurbarkas 1st half total 40.5 · main lineActual: Jurbarkas under 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread Neptunas 2 +1.5Actual: Neptunas 2 +1.5
NEPT +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
JURB -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Neptunas 2 +0.5Actual: Neptunas 2 +0.5
NEPT +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
JURB -0.5
no forecast
@ 1.74
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Neptunas 2 (regulation)
NEPT
no forecast
@ 2.07
Draw
no forecast
@ 15.50
JURB
no forecast
@ 1.80

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
NEPT win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
JURB win + total 156.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: NEPT leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Neptunas 2 +774.4%1.53
Pinnacle
1.53		----+15.2ppWon
Neptunas 2 +671.3%1.62
Pinnacle
1.62		----+15.2ppWon
Neptunas 2 +6.572.2%1.48
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.37		---+14.6ppWon
Neptunas 2 +8.578.0%1.38
1xBet
1.38		----+13.6ppWon
Neptunas 2 over 72.572.8%1.35
1xBet
1.35		----+7.5ppWon
Neptunas 2 over 71.575.9%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+7.4ppWon
Neptunas 2 +7.575.2%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+6.9ppWon
Jurbarkas under 84.572.6%1.31
1xBet
1.31		----+4.9ppWon
Overtime: no94.6%1.03
Betano
1.03		----+3.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunas 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas 2: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.018.4
52.6%
54.5%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.38.3
28.3%
31.3%24.9
🏀 Free throws19.814.1
71.2%
67.1%14.1
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Jurbarkastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Jurbarkas: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.420.7
51.2%
54.5%41.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.79.2
30.0%
31.3%27.6
🏀 Free throws21.314.7
69.0%
67.1%14.7
They take 71.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas 2
WWLWWWWWLW
Jurbarkas
WWWWLWWLWW
#6
League position
#2
+1.8
Net rating
+8.7
89.8
Offensive rating
90.6
88.0
Defensive rating
81.9
48.0%
Effective FG%
48.5%
48.3%
Opp. effective FG%
46.6%
12.9%
Turnover %
14.8%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.30
28.3%
3-point %
30.0%
60.7%
Assist %
69.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence89.8 · 90.6Defence88.0 · 81.9Shooting48.0% · 48.5%3-point %28.3% · 30.0%Ball care12.9% · 14.8%Free throws0.31 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Neptunas 2   ■ Jurbarkas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Neptunas 2 wins
4
Jurbarkas wins
DateGameScore
05/03/26Jurbarkas v Neptunas 269-63
24/01/26Neptunas 2 v Jurbarkas84-82
08/11/25Jurbarkas v Neptunas 268-71 OT
20/12/24Jurbarkas v Neptunas 284-95
24/10/24Neptunas 2 v Jurbarkas73-77
25/11/23Jurbarkas v Neptunas 288-75
07/10/23Neptunas 2 v Jurbarkas82-90
Neptunas 2last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AKedainiai BC77-71
07/11/26AKauno Atletas83-74
05/11/26HSuduva-Mantinga75-94
03/11/26AUkmerges Stekas87-64
29/10/26HPlunges Olimpas59-57
24/10/26ARytas 274-62
22/10/26HBC Olimpas Palanga78-77
17/10/26AMazeikiai90-77
15/10/26HTelsiai72-85
10/10/26HSilute73-70
Jurbarkaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HPlunges Olimpas93-82
07/11/26HTelsiai102-101
05/11/26AOmega-Tauras97-86
03/11/26HTaurage91-77
31/10/26HSilute72-79
29/10/26AKretinga86-79
22/10/26AZalgiris Kaunas 293-79
20/10/26HNevezis69-93
17/10/26HKedainiai BC81-72
15/10/26ARytas 284-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas 2
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW69%
HomeWLWWL50%
AwayWWWWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %69%50%86%
Points / game78.171.583.7
Allowed / game74.776.573.1
Point differential+3.4-5.0+10.6
Avg total152.8148.0156.9
Over 156.2546%33%57%
Win by 10+31%0%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Jurbarkas
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW92%
HomeWWLWW83%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1266
Win %92%83%100%
Points / game90.488.792.2
Allowed / game78.080.076.0
Point differential+12.4+8.7+16.2
Avg total168.4168.7168.2
Over 156.2567%67%67%
Win by 10+67%50%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai1312192%90.573.6+16.9
2 Jurbarkas1211192%90.478.0+12.4
3 BC Olimpas Palanga1411379%96.384.6+11.6
4 Suduva-Mantinga129375%91.477.7+13.8
5 Vytis VDU118373%97.490.4+7.0
6 Neptunas 2139469%78.174.7+3.4
7 Silute128467%84.382.2+2.2
8 Alytaus Patriotai148657%83.884.9-1.1
9 Omega-Tauras137654%90.586.2+4.2
10 Plunges Olimpas147750%83.181.1+2.1
11 Vilkaviskis146843%83.186.1-3.0
12 Zalgiris Kaunas 2125742%94.296.8-2.7
13 Ukmerges Stekas145936%78.988.1-9.2
14 Kedainiai BC1441029%76.885.0-8.2
15 Mazeikiai1431121%78.988.9-10.0
16 Kretinga1321115%81.590.7-9.2
17 Kauno Atletas1421214%79.194.4-15.3
18 Rytas 2131128%77.086.4-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas 21720172882
Jurbarkas2012122367
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