PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Keilor Thunder W vs Geelong W Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 18 Jul 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 78-96
25-27 16-22 16-24 21-23
Position#4
Record16-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game72.7
vs
Position#1
Record20-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game64.9
AustraliaNBL1 South Women
Women2025
Meetings · Keilor Thunder W v Geelong W
18 Jul 2025
KEIL78
GEEL96
14 Apr 2024
KEIL97
GEEL80
04 Jun 2023
KEIL66
GEEL77
06 Aug 2022
KEIL65
GEEL72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keilor Thunder W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Geelong W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Keilor Thunder WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kilsyth W
#15
W
92-86 OT
92
86
+6
H24/05
NBL1 South Women
Casey Cavaliers W
#11
W
88-66
88
66
+22
H31/05
NBL1 South Women
Melbourne Tigers W
#8
W
91-80
91
80
+11
A06/06
NBL1 South Women
Ballarat W
#13
W
93-70
93
70
+23
H14/06
NBL1 South Women
Eltham W
#19
W
89-64
89
64
+25
A21/06
NBL1 South Women
Ringwood W
#10
W
87-80
87
80
+7
H28/06
NBL1 South Women
Diamond Valley W
#6
W
76-63
76
63
+13
H05/07
NBL1 South Women
Sandringham W
#9
W
89-80
89
80
+9
A08/07
NBL1 South Women
Ballarat W
#13
L
80-87
80
87
-7
A11/07
NBL1 South Women
Knox W
#2
L
64-79
64
79
-15
H13/07
NBL1 South Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-24
24-21
16-15
19-22
26-15
14-12
25-20
23-19
27-24
15-21
33-8
16-27
31-23
26-14
13-11
23-22
25-13
21-14
20-19
23-18
21-24
26-26
17-14
23-16
19-16
18-18
21-8
18-21
20-17
22-21
20-20
27-22
21-14
13-25
25-27
21-21
20-26
14-17
15-18
15-18
160.4Avg total
84.9Scored
75.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)80.972.7153.6+8.280%
Season at home (10)81.969.4151.3+12.590%
Season away (10)79.975.9155.8+4.070%
Last 10 (10)84.975.5160.4+9.480%
Last 5 (5)79.277.8157.0+1.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)58.386.7145.0-28.30%
vs Similar (11)74.970.0144.9+4.982%
vs Weaker (16)86.270.7156.9+15.688%
This opponent (Geelong W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geelong WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham W
#19
W
104-84
104
84
+20
A24/05
NBL1 South Women
Melbourne Tigers W
#8
W
79-56
79
56
+23
H31/05
NBL1 South Women
Ringwood W
#10
W
93-72
93
72
+21
A14/06
NBL1 South Women
Launceston W
#17
W
80-69
80
69
+11
H15/06
NBL1 South Women
Diamond Valley W
#6
W
83-66
83
66
+17
H21/06
NBL1 South Women
Kilsyth W
#15
W
90-51
90
51
+39
A22/06
NBL1 South Women
Nunawading W
#12
W
89-48
89
48
+41
H28/06
NBL1 South Women
Frankston W
#7
W
80-62
80
62
+18
H05/07
NBL1 South Women
Dandenong Rangers W
#5
W
87-78
87
78
+9
A11/07
NBL1 South Women
Casey Cavaliers W
#11
W
90-53
90
53
+37
H12/07
NBL1 South Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-13
30-26
20-19
26-26
11-15
26-10
18-16
24-15
16-9
31-28
25-17
21-18
23-13
20-20
18-14
19-22
29-20
18-12
16-18
20-16
29-8
18-17
27-14
16-12
27-9
24-12
22-10
16-17
21-19
16-16
26-11
17-16
20-20
22-24
23-21
22-13
24-11
21-15
20-15
25-12
151.4Avg total
87.5Scored
63.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)89.064.9153.9+24.1100%
Season at home (10)88.161.4149.5+26.7100%
Season away (10)90.068.4158.4+21.6100%
Last 10 (10)87.563.9151.4+23.6100%
Last 5 (5)87.258.4145.6+28.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)81.784.7166.3-3.033%
vs Similar (3)89.798.0187.7-8.333%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)89.466.0155.5+23.4100%
This opponent (Keilor Thunder W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: +9.1+9.1Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: +6.0+6.0Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +3.9+3.9
-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +3.7+3.7Q1: +9.1+9.1Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: +6.0+6.0Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +3.9+3.9
Keilor Thunder WGeelong W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Keilor Thunder WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kilsyth W
#15
W
47-45
47
45
+2
H24/05
NBL1 South Women
Casey Cavaliers W
#11
W
40-27
40
27
+13
H31/05
NBL1 South Women
Melbourne Tigers W
#8
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A06/06
NBL1 South Women
Ballarat W
#13
W
57-37
57
37
+20
H14/06
NBL1 South Women
Eltham W
#19
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A21/06
NBL1 South Women
Ringwood W
#10
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H28/06
NBL1 South Women
Diamond Valley W
#6
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H05/07
NBL1 South Women
Sandringham W
#9
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A08/07
NBL1 South Women
Ballarat W
#13
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A11/07
NBL1 South Women
Knox W
#2
L
34-43
34
43
-9
H13/07
NBL1 South Women
81.1Avg total
42.6Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.336.778.0+4.567%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.936.678.5+5.475%-
Last 30 away (14)40.536.977.4+3.657%-
Last 10 (10)42.638.581.1+4.160%-
Last 5 (5)38.840.879.6-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)34.348.783.0-14.30%-
vs Similar (11)38.535.974.4+2.564%-
vs Weaker (16)44.535.179.6+9.481%-
This opponent (Geelong W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Geelong WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham W
#19
W
58-39
58
39
+19
A24/05
NBL1 South Women
Melbourne Tigers W
#8
W
37-25
37
25
+12
H31/05
NBL1 South Women
Ringwood W
#10
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A14/06
NBL1 South Women
Launceston W
#17
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H15/06
NBL1 South Women
Diamond Valley W
#6
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H21/06
NBL1 South Women
Kilsyth W
#15
W
47-25
47
25
+22
A22/06
NBL1 South Women
Nunawading W
#12
W
51-21
51
21
+30
H28/06
NBL1 South Women
Frankston W
#7
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H05/07
NBL1 South Women
Dandenong Rangers W
#5
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A11/07
NBL1 South Women
Casey Cavaliers W
#11
W
45-26
45
26
+19
H12/07
NBL1 South Women
77.1Avg total
45.4Scored
31.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.436.181.6+9.380%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.735.379.9+9.487%-
Last 30 away (15)46.237.083.2+9.273%-
Last 10 (10)45.431.777.1+13.790%-
Last 5 (5)44.430.274.6+14.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)43.746.790.3-3.033%-
vs Similar (3)46.044.090.0+2.067%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)45.633.879.4+11.888%-
This opponent (Keilor Thunder W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Keilor Thunder W wins
4
Geelong W wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/07/25HKnox W64-79
11/07/25ABallarat W80-87
08/07/25ASandringham W89-80
05/07/25HDiamond Valley W76-63
28/06/25HRingwood W87-80
21/06/25AEltham W89-64
14/06/25HBallarat W93-70
06/06/25AMelbourne Tigers W91-80
31/05/25HCasey Cavaliers W88-66
24/05/25HKilsyth W92-86 OT
Geelong Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/07/25HCasey Cavaliers W90-53
11/07/25ADandenong Rangers W87-78
05/07/25HFrankston W80-62
28/06/25HNunawading W89-48
22/06/25AKilsyth W90-51
21/06/25HDiamond Valley W83-66
15/06/25HLaunceston W80-69
14/06/25ARingwood W93-72
31/05/25HMelbourne Tigers W79-56
24/05/25AEltham W104-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keilor Thunder W
NBL1 South Women 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL80%
HomeWWWWL90%
AwayLWWWL70%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %80%90%70%
Points / game80.981.979.9
Allowed / game72.769.475.9
Point differential+8.2+12.5+4.0
Avg total153.6151.3155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%60%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %5%10%0%
Geelong W
NBL1 South Women 2025
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.088.190.0
Allowed / game64.961.468.4
Point differential+24.1+26.7+21.6
Avg total153.9149.5158.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+90%100%80%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %5%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Geelong W20200100%89.064.9+24.1
2 Knox W2118386%81.964.4+17.5
3 Keilor Thunder W2016480%80.972.7+8.2
4 Dandenong Rangers W2115671%86.673.4+13.2
5 Waverley W2014670%78.372.1+6.2
6 Diamond Valley W2013765%83.478.7+4.7
7 Frankston W2012860%78.971.0+7.8
8 Melbourne Tigers W2012860%80.574.3+6.2
9 Ringwood W22121055%77.075.1+1.9
10 Sandringham W20101050%80.080.0+0.0
11 Casey Cavaliers W2091145%74.380.4-6.1
12 Nunawading W2091145%67.375.4-8.1
13 Ballarat W2071335%71.283.5-12.2
14 Mt. Gambier W2161529%66.975.2-8.3
15 Kilsyth W2151624%70.781.7-11.0
16 Hobart Chargers W2251723%71.483.3-11.9
17 Eltham W2041620%72.885.2-12.3
18 Launceston W2141719%74.082.5-8.5
19 Bendigo Braves W2141719%72.082.2-10.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Keilor Thunder W2516162178
Geelong W2722242396
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.