PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Keravnos vs AEL Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 16 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 83-76
Projected total 158.6
Scheduled
Position#2
Record5-0
FormWWLWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game75.2
Keravnos
Cyprus
Vs
73%
27%
■ KER 73%■ AEL 27%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.4/10
Around normal
3.8/10
Below normal
AEL
Cyprus
Position#3
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game70.0
CyprusDivision ARound 6· Costas Papaellinas Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Keravnos v AEL
16 Nov 2026
KER v AEL
upcoming
02 May 2026
KER92
AEL60
25 Apr 2026
KER86
AEL66
18 Apr 2026
KER80
AEL87
04 Apr 2026
KER101
AEL58
04 Jan 2026
KER65
AEL63
07 May 2025
KER102
AEL85
30 Apr 2025
KER78
AEL66
16 Mar 2025
KER100
AEL87
12 Dec 2024
KER81
AEL69
12 Nov 2023
KER74
AEL80
07 Dec 2022
KER103
AEL82
06 Dec 2021
KER101
AEL57
11 Nov 2020
KER87
AEL63
31 Mar 2020
KER v AEL
upcoming
05 Jan 2020
KER95
AEL76
28 Jan 2019
KER84
AEL70
27 Oct 2018
KER67
AEL68
03 Mar 2015
KER20
AEL0
17 Jan 2015
KER20
AEL0
15 Dec 2013
KER88
AEL57
06 Jan 2013
KER96
AEL60
29 Feb 2012
KER101
AEL54
12 Nov 2011
KER125
AEL50
27 Mar 2011
KER95
AEL68
20 Mar 2011
KER74
AEL85
12 Nov 2010
KER76
AEL71
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Keravnos host AEL on 16 November 2026 in Division A, with the model favouring the home side and predicting a decisive win. Keravnos have gone 5-0 this season, averaging 90.0 points and allowing 75.2, while AEL are 4-1, averaging 77.8 points and conceding 70.0; Keravnos have also won both of their home games, 2-0, with a 92.5 points per game average at home and 83.0 allowed. AEL's road record is 2-1, 76.3 points per game and 74.7 allowed. In the last five games Keravnos won four and lost one, including a 86-65 victory over Parnu and a 73-86 loss to Nancy; AEL also won four of five, with a 81-83 loss to Donar Groningen and a 74-67 home win over Tal Tech. Historically, Keravnos have dominated the rivalry 8-2 and most recently beat AEL 92-60 on 2 May 2026. The Pythia model gives Keravnos a 73% chance of victory versus 27% for AEL, projects a score of 83-76 and a total of 158.6 points; the home line is -9.5 with a 41% chance of covering, the total line is 159.5 with a 47% over probability, and there is a 4% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keravnos win
73.3%fair 1.36
Best odds1.22
Implied75.6%
Edge-2.3pp
AEL win
26.7%fair 3.74
Best odds4.00
Implied24.4%
Edge+2.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 18:17 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KeravnosCyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKeravnos
Date
Competition
Achilleas K.
#10
W
95-62
95
62
+33
97avg 87
A10/10
Division A
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
W
88-78
88
78
+10
92avg 87
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
91-82
91
82
+9
93avg 87
H18/10
Division A
Szczecin
#16
L
65-78
65
78
-13
57avg 87
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apollon
#7
W
90-75
90
75
+15
98avg 87
A24/10
Division A
Vienna Basket
#32
W
85-83
85
83
+2
81avg 87
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Anorthosis
#9
W
94-84
94
84
+10
99avg 87
H31/10
Division A
Nancy
#4
L
73-86
73
86
-13
no box
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
80-73
80
73
+7
no box
A07/11
Division A
Parnu
#39
W
86-65
86
65
+21
no box
A12/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-14
26-20
20-14
18-14
23-21
22-16
18-26
25-15
24-22
19-21
35-18
13-21
18-22
21-19
16-19
10-18
19-19
21-18
32-15
18-23
26-22
22-25
22-20
15-16
18-29
26-14
22-29
28-12
17-20
21-22
18-23
17-21
17-21
23-19
24-11
16-22
17-21
22-20
15-11
32-13
161.3Avg total
84.7Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)90.075.2165.2+14.8100%
Season at home (2)92.583.0175.5+9.5100%
Season away (3)88.370.0158.3+18.3100%
Last 10 (10)84.776.6161.3+8.180%
Last 5 (5)83.678.2161.8+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)73.086.0159.0-13.00%
vs Similar (8)75.178.0153.1-2.938%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)91.874.4166.2+17.490%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AELCyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAEL
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
L
60-92
60
92
-32
45avg 72
A02/05
Division A
Spartak Pleven
#3
W
79-61
79
61
+18
79avg 72
A06/10
ENBL
Apoel BC
#5
L
73-80
73
80
-7
69avg 72
A12/10
Division A
Paralimni
#4
W
89-77
89
77
+12
86avg 72
H17/10
Division A
Fyllingen
#16
W
76-58
76
58
+18
74avg 72
H21/10
ENBL
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
74-70
74
70
+4
72avg 72
A26/10
Division A
Morphou
#8
W
71-49
71
49
+22
68avg 72
H30/10
Division A
Tal Tech
#11
W
74-67
74
67
+7
no box
H03/11
ENBL
Anorthosis
#9
W
82-74
82
74
+8
no box
A07/11
Division A
Donar Groningen
#8
L
81-83
81
83
-2
no box
A11/11
ENBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
16-30
11-20
13-20
22-9
19-15
18-21
20-16
25-19
17-24
17-14
14-23
20-22
22-22
24-20
23-13
20-11
14-17
20-14
22-16
23-14
18-10
21-24
12-22
20-11
22-15
19-13
10-10
23-16
16-16
19-21
16-14
24-19
19-22
23-16
16-17
16-22
27-28
21-14
17-19
147.0Avg total
75.9Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.870.0147.8+7.880%
Season at home (2)80.063.0143.0+17.0100%
Season away (3)76.374.7151.0+1.767%
Last 10 (10)75.971.1147.0+4.870%
Last 5 (5)76.468.6145.0+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)70.684.0154.6-13.422%
vs Similar (9)87.379.9167.2+7.489%
vs Weaker (12)80.169.8149.8+10.383%
This opponent (Keravnos) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 154.5
Over 154.5
59.1%
Under 154.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 159.5 · main line
Over 159.5
47.0%
@ 1.85-3.0pp
Under 159.5
53.0%
@ 1.85+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 164.5
Over 164.5
35.3%
Under 164.5
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Keravnos total 80.5
Over 80.5
59.0%
@ 1.38-4.3pp
Under 80.5
41.0%
@ 2.38+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Under
1xBet
2.38
Keravnos total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
43.2%
@ 1.83-6.8pp
Under 84.5
56.8%
@ 1.83+6.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.71
Keravnos total 88.5
Over 88.5
28.5%
@ 2.41-7.9pp
Under 88.5
71.5%
@ 1.38+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.41
Under
1xBet
1.38
AEL total 71.5
Over 71.5
65.6%
@ 1.41+3.8pp
Under 71.5
34.4%
@ 2.28-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Under
1xBet
2.28
AEL total 75.5 · main line
Over 75.5
50.4%
@ 1.87+1.6pp
Under 75.5
49.6%
@ 1.83-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.79
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.66
AEL total 79.5
Over 79.5
35.4%
Under 79.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Keravnos -12.5
KER -12.5
31.2%
@ 2.25-8.1pp
AEL +12.5
68.8%
@ 1.46+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
KER
1xBet
2.25
AEL
1xBet
1.46
Spread Keravnos -9.5 · main line
KER -9.5
41.3%
@ 1.83-8.7pp
AEL +9.5
58.7%
@ 1.83+8.7pp
Best 5 market prices
KER
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.79
AEL
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Spread Keravnos -6.5
KER -6.5
52.4%
@ 1.46-8.1pp
AEL +6.5
47.6%
@ 2.24+8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
KER
1xBet
1.46
AEL
1xBet
2.24

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.7-0.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +2.9+2.9Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +3.6+3.6Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.7-0.7
KeravnosAEL
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
KeravnosLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Achilleas K.
#10
W
57-34
57
34
+23
A10/10
Division A
Nitra Blue Wings
#35
W
45-37
45
37
+8
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H18/10
Division A
Szczecin
#16
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apollon
#7
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A24/10
Division A
Vienna Basket
#32
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Anorthosis
#9
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H31/10
Division A
Nancy
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A03/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
D
40-40
40
40
+0
A07/11
Division A
Parnu
#39
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A12/11
FIBA Europe Cup
83.8Avg total
43.3Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)44.438.783.0+5.767%67%
Last 30 at home (15)45.937.783.6+8.180%60%
Last 30 away (15)42.939.682.5+3.353%73%
Last 10 (10)43.340.583.8+2.850%90%
Last 5 (5)41.842.684.4-0.840%100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)38.042.080.0-4.00%100%
vs Similar (8)39.140.479.5-1.250%62%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)46.737.984.5+8.876%67%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AELLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A02/05
Division A
Spartak Pleven
#3
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A06/10
ENBL
Apoel BC
#5
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A12/10
Division A
Paralimni
#4
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H17/10
Division A
Fyllingen
#16
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H21/10
ENBL
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A26/10
Division A
Morphou
#8
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H30/10
Division A
Tal Tech
#11
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H03/11
ENBL
Anorthosis
#9
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A07/11
Division A
Donar Groningen
#8
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A11/11
ENBL
76.7Avg total
40.3Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 78.5
Last 30 (30)39.837.277.0+2.567%47%
Last 30 at home (13)41.535.577.0+5.985%46%
Last 30 away (17)38.538.577.0-0.153%47%
Last 10 (10)40.336.476.7+3.960%50%
Last 5 (5)41.634.676.2+7.080%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)35.940.676.4-4.744%33%
vs Similar (9)41.838.780.4+3.167%67%
vs Weaker (12)41.233.774.8+7.583%42%
This opponent (Keravnos) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
KER win
no forecast
@ 1.40
AEL win
no forecast
@ 3.05
1st half Spread Keravnos -4.5 · main line
KER -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
AEL +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 78.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Keravnos 1st half total 41.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
AEL 1st half total 36.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half: KER + total 78.5
KER & over
no forecast
@ 2.80
KER & under
no forecast
@ 2.75
1st half: Draw + total 78.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 31.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 31.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
KER
no forecast
@ 1.44
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
AEL
no forecast
@ 3.15

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
KER win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
AEL win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: KER leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: AEL leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Keravnos under 88.571.5%1.38
1xBet
1.38		----+7.9pp
AEL +13.571.9%1.38
1xBet
1.38		----+7.7pp
Keravnos (regulation)70.8%1.20
1xBet
1.20		-----0.8pp
Keravnos win73.3%1.21
WilliamHill
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.19
SBO
1.18		-2.3pp
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 1 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Keravnostheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Keravnos: 85.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.3 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.122.2
55.4%
52.0%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.49.2
39.3%
34.4%27.6
🏀 Free throws17.713.4
75.7%
72.9%13.4
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AELtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEL: 75.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.3 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.3
54.6%
52.0%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.66.5
28.8%
34.4%19.5
🏀 Free throws21.815.4
70.6%
72.9%15.4
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Keravnos
WWLWWWLWWW
AEL
LWWWWWWLWL
#2
League position
#3
+20.3
Net rating
+2.4
106.5
Offensive rating
92.1
86.2
Defensive rating
89.7
56.7%
Effective FG%
50.3%
51.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.4%
14.4%
Turnover %
14.3%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.36
39.3%
3-point %
28.8%
72.9%
Assist %
62.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.5 · 92.1Defence86.2 · 89.7Shooting56.7% · 50.3%3-point %39.3% · 28.8%Ball care14.4% · 14.3%Free throws0.28 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Keravnos   ■ AEL
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Keravnos wins
2
AEL wins
DateGameScore
02/05/26Keravnos v AEL92-60
29/04/26AEL v Keravnos87-82
25/04/26Keravnos v AEL86-66
22/04/26AEL v Keravnos81-85
18/04/26Keravnos v AEL80-87
04/04/26Keravnos v AEL101-58
04/01/26Keravnos v AEL65-63
19/10/25AEL v Keravnos77-87
07/05/25Keravnos v AEL102-85
03/05/25AEL v Keravnos72-81
Keravnoslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AParnu86-65
07/11/26AApoel BC80-73
03/11/26ANancy73-86
31/10/26HAnorthosis94-84
27/10/26AVienna Basket85-83
24/10/26AApollon90-75
21/10/26HSzczecin65-78
18/10/26HMorphou91-82
14/10/26ANitra Blue Wings88-78
10/10/26AAchilleas K.95-62
AELlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ADonar Groningen81-83
07/11/26AAnorthosis82-74
03/11/26HTal Tech74-67
30/10/26HMorphou71-49
26/10/26AETHA Engomi74-70
21/10/26HFyllingen76-58
17/10/26HParalimni89-77
12/10/26AApoel BC73-80
06/10/26ASpartak Pleven79-61
02/05/26AKeravnos60-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Keravnos
Division A 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game90.092.588.3
Allowed / game75.283.070.0
Point differential+14.8+9.5+18.3
Avg total165.2175.5158.3
Over 159.560%100%33%
Win by 10+60%50%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEL
Division A 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game77.880.076.3
Allowed / game70.063.074.7
Point differential+7.8+17.0+1.7
Avg total147.8143.0151.0
Over 159.520%50%0%
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 AEK Larnaca550100%89.669.6+20.0
2 Keravnos550100%90.075.2+14.8
3 AEL54180%77.870.0+7.8
4 Paralimni64267%84.779.2+5.5
5 Apoel BC63350%77.375.2+2.2
6 ETHA Engomi63350%69.772.3-2.7
7 Apollon62433%70.079.3-9.3
8 Morphou51420%70.083.0-13.0
9 Anorthosis5050%75.082.2-7.2
10 Achilleas K.5050%74.491.6-17.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.