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Leiden vs Leuven Bears Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 20 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 90-72
23-18 14-22 19-19 34-13
Position#10
Record8-3
FormWWLWL
Points / game92.5
Allowed / game80.6
Leiden 🏆
vs
Position#13
Record4-7
FormLWWWL
Points / game79.5
Allowed / game82.8
EuropeBNXT LeagueRound 12· Sportcomplex
Other2025-26
Meetings · Leiden v Leuven Bears
20 Feb 2027
LEI v LEUV
upcoming
20 Dec 2025
LEI90
LEUV72
28 Sep 2024
LEI78
LEUV77
03 Jun 2022
LEI81
LEUV59
19 Mar 2022
LEI95
LEUV66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leiden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Leuven Bears winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Rotterdam
#17
W
111-68
111
68
+43
109avg 74
H04/10
BNXT League
Spirou Charleroi
#11
W
87-60
87
60
+27
85avg 74
A12/10
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
108-89
108
89
+19
110avg 74
H18/10
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
W
84-68
84
68
+16
82avg 74
A25/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
L
83-108
83
108
-25
68avg 74
A01/11
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#7
W
101-72
101
72
+29
95avg 74
H08/11
BNXT League
Oostende
#2
W
98-90
98
90
+8
93avg 74
H15/11
BNXT League
Kortrijk
#4
L
76-82
76
82
-6
69avg 74
A21/11
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#16
W
107-89
107
89
+18
96avg 74
H06/12
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
L
80-97
80
97
-17
66avg 74
A12/12
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-15
34-17
24-17
20-19
22-12
32-18
15-14
18-16
21-21
28-23
26-23
33-22
20-21
29-13
25-18
10-16
23-23
21-31
26-28
13-26
19-21
31-10
28-22
23-19
21-28
22-27
35-24
20-11
28-16
9-20
25-18
14-28
16-25
27-28
36-22
28-14
22-15
21-25
22-23
15-34
175.8Avg total
93.5Scored
82.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)92.580.6173.2+11.973%
Season at home (5)105.081.6186.6+23.4100%
Season away (6)82.279.8162.0+2.350%
Last 10 (10)93.582.3175.8+11.270%
Last 5 (5)92.486.0178.4+6.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)73.485.0158.4-11.618%
vs Similar ◀ (5)85.481.2166.6+4.240%
vs Weaker (14)91.476.4167.7+15.086%
This opponent (Leuven Bears) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Leuven BearsLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBears
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
52-104
52
104
-52
40avg 74
H11/10
BNXT League
Limburg
#5
L
75-84
75
84
-9
59avg 74
A17/10
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
100-96 OT
100
96
+4
93avg 74
H25/10
BNXT League
Zwolle
#14
W
87-83 OT
87
83
+4
76avg 74
A02/11
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
L
83-88
83
88
-5
69avg 74
H08/11
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#7
L
76-82
76
82
-6
72avg 74
A11/11
BNXT League
Mechelen
#8
W
81-57
81
57
+24
76avg 74
A15/11
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#11
W
104-93 OT
104
93
+11
no box
H19/11
Belgian Cup
Den Helder
#12
W
84-71
84
71
+13
83avg 74
H06/12
BNXT League
Oostende
#2
L
76-80
76
80
-4
66avg 74
H13/12
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
13-27
12-25
11-28
25-11
13-24
17-31
20-18
11-17
31-28
21-15
20-23
18-16
22-27
23-20
12-12
21-20
17-24
23-18
22-26
19-12
22-26
18-22
17-22
15-11
20-16
16-15
30-15
14-18
21-17
30-15
17-32
20-24
10-17
30-14
24-16
16-20
20-22
19-21
21-17
165.6Avg total
81.8Scored
83.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)79.582.8162.3-3.436%
Season at home (6)81.089.0170.0-8.033%
Season away (5)77.675.4153.0+2.240%
Last 10 (10)81.883.8165.6-2.050%
Last 5 (5)84.276.6160.8+7.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)66.579.8146.3-13.317%
vs Similar ◀ (15)81.779.3161.0+2.547%
vs Weaker (8)86.071.0157.0+15.088%
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: +5.3+5.3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -1.5-1.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: +5.3+5.3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -1.5-1.5
LeidenLeuven Bears
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rotterdam
#17
W
67-32
67
32
+35
H04/10
BNXT League
Spirou Charleroi
#11
W
54-30
54
30
+24
A12/10
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
49-44
49
44
+5
H18/10
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
W
49-34
49
34
+15
A25/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A01/11
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#7
W
50-31
50
31
+19
H08/11
BNXT League
Oostende
#2
L
43-55
43
55
-12
H15/11
BNXT League
Kortrijk
#4
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A21/11
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#16
L
43-53
43
53
-10
H06/12
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A12/12
BNXT League
88.8Avg total
47.9Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.442.586.8+1.957%-
Last 30 at home (13)45.644.389.9+1.354%-
Last 30 away (17)43.441.184.5+2.459%-
Last 10 (10)47.940.988.8+7.070%-
Last 5 (5)43.243.086.2+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)38.746.485.1-7.627%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)45.839.685.4+6.280%-
vs Weaker (14)48.340.488.7+7.971%-
This opponent (Leuven Bears) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Leuven BearsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
29-51
29
51
-22
H11/10
BNXT League
Limburg
#5
W
38-35
38
35
+3
A17/10
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
L
42-45
42
45
-3
H25/10
BNXT League
Zwolle
#14
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A02/11
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
L
38-44
38
44
-6
H08/11
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#7
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A11/11
BNXT League
Mechelen
#8
W
35-27
35
27
+8
A15/11
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#11
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H19/11
Belgian Cup
Den Helder
#12
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H06/12
BNXT League
Oostende
#2
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H13/12
BNXT League
76.5Avg total
36.4Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.838.877.6-0.040%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.941.080.9-1.133%-
Last 30 away (15)37.736.774.3+1.047%-
Last 10 (10)36.440.176.5-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)35.436.672.0-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.840.274.0-6.317%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)38.741.580.2-2.933%-
vs Weaker (8)43.233.276.5+10.075%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 92.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.5 points a game
49%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.223.7
56.2%
54.3%47.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.010.0
38.5%
34.6%30.0
🏀 Free throws20.415.3
75.0%
72.4%15.3
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Leuven Bearstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leuven Bears: 79.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.8 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.5 points a game
49%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.922.2
51.7%
54.3%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.66.6
32.0%
34.6%19.8
🏀 Free throws24.115.7
65.1%
72.4%15.7
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Leiden
LWLWWLWWWW
Leuven Bears
LWWWLLWWLL
#10
League position
#13
+14.3
Net rating
-3.7
116.5
Offensive rating
102.2
102.1
Defensive rating
105.9
56.7%
Effective FG%
50.6%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
16.8%
Turnover %
18.7%
30.0%
Off. rebound %
28.5%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.38
38.5%
3-point %
32.0%
59.1%
Assist %
50.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence116.5 · 102.2Defence102.1 · 105.9Shooting56.7% · 50.6%3-point %38.5% · 32.0%Ball care16.8% · 18.7%Off. rebounds30.0% · 28.5%Free throws0.30 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Leiden   ■ Leuven Bears
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Leiden wins
3
Leuven Bears wins
DateGameScore
29/03/25Leuven Bears v Leiden98-63
28/09/24Leiden v Leuven Bears78-77
03/06/22Leiden v Leuven Bears81-59
01/06/22Leuven Bears v Leiden82-68
23/04/22Leuven Bears v Leiden86-57
19/03/22Leiden v Leuven Bears95-66
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/12/25ABrussels Basketball80-97
06/12/25HBelfius Mons107-89
21/11/25AKortrijk76-82
15/11/25HOostende98-90
08/11/25HDonar Groningen101-72
01/11/25AOkapi Aalst83-108
25/10/25ADen Helder84-68
18/10/25HLWD Basket108-89
12/10/25ASpirou Charleroi87-60
04/10/25HRotterdam111-68
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/12/25HOostende76-80
06/12/25HDen Helder84-71
19/11/25HBelfius Mons104-93 OT
15/11/25AMechelen81-57
11/11/25ADonar Groningen76-82
08/11/25HBrussels Basketball83-88
02/11/25AZwolle87-83 OT
25/10/25HLWD Basket100-96 OT
17/10/25ALimburg75-84
11/10/25HAntwerp Giants52-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leiden
BNXT League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL73%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %73%100%50%
Points / game92.5105.082.2
Allowed / game80.681.679.8
Point differential+11.9+23.4+2.3
Avg total173.2186.6162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%80%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Leuven Bears
BNXT League 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL36%
HomeLWLWL33%
AwayLLWLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %36%33%40%
Points / game79.581.077.6
Allowed / game82.889.075.4
Point differential-3.4-8.0+2.2
Avg total162.3170.0153.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%17%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)25% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %27%33%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Antwerp Giants1211192%98.176.8+21.2
2 Oostende1110191%90.479.9+10.5
3 Mechelen108280%81.875.4+6.4
4 Brussels Basketball129375%87.981.8+6.1
5 Leiden118373%92.580.6+11.9
6 Den Bosch117464%87.582.2+5.3
7 Okapi Aalst117464%92.688.0+4.6
8 Kortrijk127558%85.581.2+4.2
9 Donar Groningen116555%80.681.1-0.5
10 Limburg126650%86.479.0+7.4
11 Belfius Mons125742%91.095.1-4.1
12 Spirou Charleroi125742%81.089.5-8.5
13 Leuven Bears114736%79.582.8-3.4
14 Zwolle123925%79.284.0-4.8
15 LWD Basket123925%88.797.2-8.5
16 Den Helder1221017%78.886.5-7.7
17 Rotterdam111109%78.595.8-17.3
18 BAL Weert111109%67.590.4-22.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Leiden2314193490
Leuven Bears1822191372
← all games of the day
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