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Lithuania vs Estonia Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 24 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 82-75
28-19 32-24 7-21 15-11
Position#4
Record4-1
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game63.2
vs
Position#10
Record4-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game71.8
EuropeEuroBasketRound 6· Svyturio Arena
Other2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lithuania winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Estonia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLithuania
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#14
W
91-71
91
71
+20
no box
A29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
W
92-67
92
67
+25
no box
H01/09
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
68-87
68
87
-19
no box
H05/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
100-84
100
84
+16
no box
H07/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
no box
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
83-64
83
64
+19
no box
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
59-65
59
65
-6
49avg 86
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
82-67
82
67
+15
80avg 86
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
94-72
94
72
+22
103avg 86
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-48
82
48
+34
86avg 86
A21/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-27
22-13
18-10
25-21
20-20
19-23
25-15
28-9
25-24
13-25
17-24
13-14
33-21
20-22
22-20
25-21
20-28
18-21
9-28
16-21
16-19
19-11
27-19
21-15
18-17
19-24
13-9
9-15
23-9
21-18
20-16
18-24
23-27
20-19
21-16
30-10
15-18
22-14
25-10
20-6
153.7Avg total
81.4Scored
72.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)80.063.2143.2+16.880%
Season at home (2)88.568.0156.5+20.5100%
Season away (3)74.360.0134.3+14.367%
Last 10 (10)81.472.3153.7+9.170%
Last 5 (5)80.063.2143.2+16.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)71.290.0161.2-18.80%
vs Similar (9)84.378.0162.3+6.356%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)83.268.2151.4+14.988%
This opponent (Estonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstoniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormEstonia
Date
Competition
Greece
#2
L
69-90
69
90
-21
no box
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
82-87
82
87
-5
no box
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
L
71-91
71
91
-20
no box
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
79-78
79
78
+1
no box
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
W
72-71
72
71
+1
no box
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
W
74-69
74
69
+5
no box
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
65-59
65
59
+6
65avg 79
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
82-78
82
78
+4
79avg 79
A21/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
86-88
86
88
-2
81avg 79
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
84-65
84
65
+19
90avg 79
H21/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
15-24
13-26
20-13
13-27
24-12
24-20
21-28
16-21
25-18
15-27
15-25
24-16
13-24
18-19
24-19
17-16
11-14
15-14
29-27
19-20
17-23
21-10
17-16
17-18
24-19
9-13
15-9
19-18
19-22
19-13
25-25
25-22
17-18
21-22
23-26
22-17
16-22
20-11
26-15
154.0Avg total
76.4Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)78.271.8150.0+6.480%
Season at home (3)78.370.7149.0+7.767%
Season away (2)78.073.5151.5+4.5100%
Last 10 (10)76.477.6154.0-1.260%
Last 5 (5)78.271.8150.0+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)73.379.7153.0-6.436%
vs Similar (3)80.770.3151.0+10.3100%
vs Weaker (2)84.083.0167.0+1.050%
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: +1.2+1.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: +0.3+0.3Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: +1.2+1.2
LithuaniaEstonia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LithuaniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#14
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A29/08
World Cup
Greece
#25
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H01/09
World Cup
Serbia
#13
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H05/09
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
W
53-43
53
43
+10
H07/09
World Cup
Latvia
#3
L
38-49
38
49
-11
A09/09
World Cup
Poland
#24
W
35-30
35
30
+5
H22/02
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A26/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
W
44-27
44
27
+17
A21/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H24/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A21/02
EuroBasket
81.2Avg total
41.2Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.038.179.2+2.963%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.339.480.7+1.960%-
Last 30 away (15)40.836.977.7+3.967%-
Last 10 (10)41.240.081.2+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)39.235.274.4+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)35.841.877.5-6.025%-
vs Similar (9)43.840.984.7+2.967%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)40.835.876.6+5.071%-
This opponent (Estonia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
EstoniaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Greece
#2
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H08/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#33
L
37-39
37
39
-2
H11/11
World Cup
Finland
#22
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A14/11
World Cup
Slovenia
#24
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H24/02
World Cup
Sweden
#33
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A27/02
World Cup
North Macedonia
#15
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A23/02
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H26/02
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A21/11
EuroBasket
Poland
#24
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H24/11
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
38-39
38
39
-1
H21/02
EuroBasket
77.2Avg total
37.4Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.139.277.3-1.140%-
Last 30 at home (16)38.138.977.0-0.844%-
Last 30 away (14)38.139.677.7-1.636%-
Last 10 (10)37.439.877.2-2.430%-
Last 5 (5)39.039.878.8-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)37.638.976.6-1.340%-
vs Similar (3)40.741.382.0-0.733%-
vs Weaker (2)40.040.080.0+0.050%-
This opponent (Lithuania) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Lithuaniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Lithuania: 79.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.217.8
55.3%
50.6%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.09.4
37.6%
32.5%28.2
🏀 Free throws21.815.4
70.6%
71.4%15.4
They take 57.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Estoniatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Estonia: 77.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.8
58.1%
50.6%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.67.6
29.7%
32.5%22.8
🏀 Free throws20.013.4
67.0%
71.4%13.4
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/5 games with a box score before 24 Feb 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Lithuania
WWWLWLWLWW
Estonia
WLWWWWWLLL
#4
League position
#10
+23.9
Net rating
+10.0
112.9
Offensive rating
108.1
88.9
Defensive rating
98.1
55.8%
Effective FG%
52.4%
46.4%
Opp. effective FG%
44.6%
16.9%
Turnover %
19.4%
27.6%
Off. rebound %
34.5%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.33
37.6%
3-point %
29.7%
70.6%
Assist %
71.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence112.9 · 108.1Defence88.9 · 98.1Shooting55.8% · 52.4%3-point %37.6% · 29.7%Ball care16.9% · 19.4%Off. rebounds27.6% · 34.5%Free throws0.38 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Lithuania   ■ Estonia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Lithuania wins
1
Estonia wins
DateGameScore
26/02/24Estonia v Lithuania65-59
Lithuanialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/25APoland82-48
24/11/24HNorth Macedonia94-72
21/11/24ANorth Macedonia82-67
26/02/24AEstonia59-65
22/02/24HPoland83-64
09/09/23ALatvia63-98
07/09/23HSlovenia100-84
05/09/23HSerbia68-87
01/09/23HGreece92-67
29/08/23AMontenegro91-71
Estonialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/25HNorth Macedonia84-65
24/11/24HPoland86-88
21/11/24APoland82-78
26/02/24HLithuania65-59
23/02/24ANorth Macedonia74-69
27/02/23ASweden72-71
24/02/23HSlovenia79-78
14/11/22AFinland71-91
11/11/22HSweden82-87
08/09/22HGreece69-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Lithuania
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game80.088.574.3
Allowed / game63.268.060.0
Point differential+16.8+20.5+14.3
Avg total143.2156.5134.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Estonia
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game78.278.378.0
Allowed / game71.870.773.5
Point differential+6.4+7.7+4.5
Avg total150.0149.0151.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Serbia550100%85.664.4+21.2
2 France550100%78.066.8+11.2
3 Latvia660100%79.269.3+9.8
4 Lithuania54180%80.063.2+16.8
5 Estonia54180%78.271.8+6.4
6 Slovenia54180%83.277.4+5.8
7 Israel54180%81.876.8+5.0
8 Greece54180%77.673.0+4.6
9 Croatia1612475%85.871.1+14.7
10 Germany64267%81.370.5+10.8
11 Italy64267%81.072.0+9.0
12 Portugal117464%82.374.0+8.3
13 Bulgaria1610662%79.275.8+3.4
14 Bosnia & Herzegovina53260%91.476.2+15.2
15 Georgia53260%73.071.6+1.4
16 Great Britain53260%78.680.4-1.8
17 Romania148657%72.072.1-0.1
18 North Macedonia116555%73.270.9+2.3
19 Poland116555%76.576.5+0.1
20 Belgium63350%72.265.8+6.3
21 Montenegro63350%81.780.7+1.0
22 Turkey63350%77.877.8+0.0
23 Spain63350%68.869.2-0.3
24 Slovakia168850%72.072.9-0.9
25 Iceland63350%76.378.0-1.7
26 Sweden63350%75.280.2-5.0
27 Denmark1991047%73.673.0+0.6
28 Norway146843%71.176.0-4.9
29 Czech Republic52340%81.879.6+2.2
30 Ireland104640%73.984.4-10.5
31 Austria1661038%75.077.2-2.2
32 Switzerland1661038%67.871.9-4.2
33 Kosovo83538%76.081.2-5.2
34 Hungary62433%71.278.5-7.3
35 Netherlands51420%77.282.2-5.0
36 Finland51420%78.487.6-9.2
37 Luxembourg81712%75.685.2-9.6
38 Albania81712%73.285.8-12.5
39 Cyprus181176%63.783.6-19.9
40 Ukraine5050%73.884.8-11.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 40 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Lithuania283271582
Estonia1924211175
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