PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The LIU Sharks host St. Thomas (Minn.) on 16 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Sharks the model's favourite and a 58% chance to win against a 42% chance for the Wildcats. LIU's five-game season record is 0-5, averaging 60.8 points scored and 75.0 points allowed, and they sit 363rd in the league; their last five games were all losses, including 58-80 to Fordham, 46-66 to Towson and 80-88 to La Salle. St. Thomas (Minn.) finish 2-3 on the season, scoring 82.4 points per game while conceding 78.2, and they are 251st; their road record is 1-2 with 75.3 points scored and 77.7 points allowed, and their last five games include a 77-79 loss to Army, a 119-82 win over Macalester and a 67-76 loss to Wisc. Green Bay. The projected score is 75-73 for the Sharks, with a total of 147.4 points, and the model gives the Sharks a 58% chance to cover the spread. The game is expected to finish in regulation with a 5% probability of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 60.8 | 75.0 | 135.8 | -14.2 | 0% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (5) | 60.8 | 75.0 | 135.8 | -14.2 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 65.8 | 72.8 | 138.6 | -7.0 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 60.8 | 75.0 | 135.8 | -14.2 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 59.3 | 78.0 | 137.3 | -18.7 | 0% |
| vs Similar (16) | 72.4 | 67.4 | 139.8 | +4.9 | 69% |
| vs Weaker (8) | 75.9 | 68.0 | 143.9 | +7.9 | 88% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 82.4 | 78.2 | 160.6 | +4.2 | 40% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.0 | 79.0 | 172.0 | +14.0 | 50% |
| Season away (3) | 75.3 | 77.7 | 153.0 | -2.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.0 | 72.2 | 151.2 | +6.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.4 | 78.2 | 160.6 | +4.2 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 68.7 | 77.0 | 145.7 | -8.3 | 0% |
| vs Similar (3) | 76.3 | 62.0 | 138.3 | +14.3 | 67% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 85.2 | 73.7 | 158.9 | +11.5 | 76% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 34.1 | 34.6 | 68.7 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 34.3 | 30.5 | 64.8 | +3.8 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (18) | 34.0 | 37.3 | 71.3 | -3.3 | 33% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.0 | 35.9 | 66.9 | -4.9 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 29.0 | 36.0 | 65.0 | -7.0 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 30.2 | 39.2 | 69.3 | -9.0 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 35.0 | 33.8 | 68.8 | +1.2 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (8) | 35.4 | 32.9 | 68.2 | +2.5 | 75% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 40.4 | 33.5 | 73.9 | +6.9 | 83% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 42.5 | 31.7 | 74.2 | +10.8 | 94% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 37.6 | 35.8 | 73.5 | +1.8 | 69% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 34.3 | 72.2 | +3.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.2 | 37.2 | 74.4 | +0.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (3) | 31.3 | 36.0 | 67.3 | -4.7 | 33% | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 40.0 | 30.7 | 70.7 | +9.3 | 100% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (21) | 40.4 | 33.7 | 74.0 | +6.7 | 86% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Fordham | 58-80 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Towson | 46-66 |
| 07/11/26 | A | La Salle | 80-88 |
| 05/11/26 | A | Seton Hall | 60-67 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Florida Atlantic | 60-74 |
| 20/03/26 | A | Arizona | 58-92 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Mercyhurst Lakers | 79-70 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Wagner | 64-56 |
| 05/03/26 | H | Chicago State | 79-75 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Fairleigh Dickinson | 74-60 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Army | 77-79 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Macalester | 119-82 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Wisc. Green Bay | 67-76 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Minnesota | 62-76 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Presbyterian | 87-78 |
| 08/03/26 | H | North Dakota | 66-67 |
| 06/03/26 | H | South Dakota St. | 80-67 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Nebraska O. | 68-53 |
| 27/02/26 | H | North Dakota St | 84-62 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Denver | 80-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 0% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LLLLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | - | 5 |
| Win % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Points / game | 60.8 | - | 60.8 |
| Allowed / game | 75.0 | - | 75.0 |
| Point differential | -14.2 | - | -14.2 |
| Avg total | 135.8 | - | 135.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWL | 40% |
| Home | LW | 50% |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 40% | 50% | 33% |
| Points / game | 82.4 | 93.0 | 75.3 |
| Allowed / game | 78.2 | 79.0 | 77.7 |
| Point differential | +4.2 | +14.0 | -2.3 |
| Avg total | 160.6 | 172.0 | 153.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | - | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Le Moyne | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 76.0 | 72.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 |  Central Connecticut State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 65.5 | 79.0 | -13.5 |
| 3 |  Chicago State | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.0 | 78.8 | -10.8 |
| 4 |  Fairleigh Dickinson | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.2 | 85.0 | -16.8 |
| 5 |  New Haven Chargers | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 58.3 | 70.0 | -11.7 |
| 6 |  Wagner | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.2 | 73.2 | -7.0 |
| 7 |  Mercyhurst Lakers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 61.2 | 70.8 | -9.5 |
| 8 |  Stonehill | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 59.8 | 75.5 | -15.8 |
| 9 | LIU Sharks | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 60.8 | 75.0 | -14.2 |
| 10 |  St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Dakota St. | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 72.8 | 57.5 | +15.2 |
| 2 |  Nebraska O. | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 68.2 | 77.0 | -8.8 |
| 3 |  Oral Roberts | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 75.5 | 60.8 | +14.8 |
| 4 | St. Thomas (Minn.) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 82.4 | 78.2 | +4.2 |
| 5 |  UMKC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 75.4 | 77.8 | -2.4 |
| 6 |  North Dakota St | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 77.2 | 83.0 | -5.8 |
| 7 |  North Dakota | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 72.8 | 86.8 | -14.0 |
| 8 |  South Dakota Coyotes | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 84.4 | 82.8 | +1.6 |
| 9 |  Denver | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 60.3 | 71.7 | -11.3 |
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