PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Louisville hosts the Chattanooga Mocs on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Cardinals the clear favourite, rating them at 87% to win, a reflection of their dominant season performance. Louisville has won 3 of their last 5 games, including a 83-79 victory over South Florida at home, while Chattanooga has also won 3 of their last 5, with a recent 86-79 win over VMI at home. Their only previous encounter ended with a 81-71 win for the Mocs on 10 November 2023. Pythia projects a 83-70 score, giving Louisville an 87% chance to win and Chattanooga a 13% chance, with a projected total of 152.9 points and a 3% probability of overtime. The home team's line is 83-70, and the model estimates an 87% chance that Louisville will cover the spread. The Cardinals' recent win over South Florida and the Mocs' victory over VMI suggest Louisville's offensive edge will prevail in this matchup.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 77.7 | 76.5 | 154.2 | +1.2 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.8 | 76.2 | 152.0 | -0.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 62.5 | 83.5 | 146.0 | -21.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (8) | 75.4 | 81.4 | 156.8 | -6.0 | 25% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (20) | 86.8 | 68.6 | 155.3 | +18.2 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 79.5 | 79.6 | 159.1 | -0.1 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.6 | 82.8 | 170.4 | +4.8 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 71.6 | 75.4 | 147.0 | -3.9 | 29% |
| vs Similar (14) | 73.4 | 80.7 | 154.1 | -7.3 | 29% |
| vs Weaker (9) | 85.2 | 69.3 | 154.6 | +15.9 | 67% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.4 | 32.8 | 72.2 | +6.6 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 40.6 | 29.2 | 69.8 | +11.3 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 38.1 | 36.9 | 75.0 | +1.1 | 36% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.1 | 34.4 | 72.5 | +3.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 35.6 | 32.6 | 68.2 | +3.0 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (2) | 37.5 | 38.0 | 75.5 | -0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 34.2 | 36.2 | 70.5 | -2.0 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (20) | 41.6 | 30.9 | 72.6 | +10.7 | 65% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.9 | 35.5 | 71.5 | +0.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 38.3 | 35.6 | 73.9 | +2.7 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 33.6 | 35.5 | 69.1 | -1.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.7 | 37.5 | 74.2 | -0.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.4 | 37.6 | 82.0 | +6.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (7) | 31.6 | 37.1 | 68.7 | -5.6 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 34.9 | 37.1 | 71.9 | -2.2 | 36% | - |
| vs Weaker (9) | 41.0 | 31.9 | 72.9 | +9.1 | 67% | - |
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| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 11/11/23 | Louisville v Chattanooga Mocs | 71-81 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | A | Michigan State | 69-77 |
| 19/03/26 | H | South Florida | 83-79 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Miami (FL) | 73-78 |
| 11/03/26 | H | SMU Mustangs | 62-58 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Miami (FL) | 92-89 |
| 04/03/26 | H | Syracuse | 77-62 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Clemson | 75-80 |
| 24/02/26 | A | North Carolina | 74-77 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Georgia Tech | 87-70 |
| 18/02/26 | A | SMU Mustangs | 85-95 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | H | Citadel | 85-88 |
| 28/02/26 | H | VMI | 86-79 |
| 27/02/26 | H | NC Greensboro | 80-85 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Citadel | 93-72 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Mercer | 94-90 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Western Carolina | 76-81 |
| 12/02/26 | A | East Tennessee St | 61-73 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Citadel | 71-78 |
| 06/02/26 | H | Mercer | 79-75 |
| 01/02/26 | A | Furman | 70-75 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pittsburgh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 57.0 | +38.0 |
| 2 |  Duke | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 50.0 | +34.0 |
| 3 |  California | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 115.0 | 86.0 | +29.0 |
| 4 |  Wake Forest | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 62.0 | +21.0 |
| 5 |  NC State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 83.0 | 64.0 | +19.0 |
| 6 |  Syracuse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 58.0 | +16.0 |
| 7 |  Clemson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 72.0 | +13.0 |
| 8 |  SMU Mustangs | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 85.0 | 72.0 | +13.0 |
| 9 |  North Carolina | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 80.0 | 72.0 | +8.0 |
| 10 |  Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 |
| 11 |  Miami (FL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 67.0 | 77.0 | -10.0 |
| 12 |  Florida State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 69.0 | 112.0 | -43.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Mercer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 |
| 2 |  VMI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 115.0 | 83.0 | +32.0 |
| 3 |  Samford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 87.0 | 58.0 | +29.0 |
| 4 |  Furman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 70.0 | +9.0 |
| 5 |  Western Carolina | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 80.0 | -8.0 |
| 6 |  Citadel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 52.0 | 77.0 | -25.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 56 | 28 | 84 |
| Chattanooga Mocs | 35 | 35 | 70 |
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