Louisville faces Morehead State in the NCAA on 7 November 2026, with Louisville the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 98% to win, reflecting their undefeated 1-0 record, 84.0 points per game and 70.0 allowed per game, and a league position of 144; Morehead State sits at 216 with a 1-1 record, 86.0 points per game and 71.5 allowed per game. Louisville's single home game saw them beat Chattanooga 84-70, while their last five games include three wins and two losses, and they have yet to lose at home; Morehead State's road record is 0-1 with 58 points per game and 83 allowed, and their last five games also feature three wins and two losses, including a 114-60 home win over Virginia-Lynchburg. The teams have met once, with Louisville winning 93-45 in 2024. Pythia projects a 89-64 score, 153.6 total points, a 57% chance of the over on the 150.5 line, and a 1% overtime probability, with Louisville covering the spread. The game ends with Louisville's projected 89 points against Morehead State's 64.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Louisville winWon
98.0%fair 1.02
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Morehead State winLost
2.0%fair 51.26
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 147.5Actual: Over 147.5
Over 147.5
64.6%
@ 1.61+6.0pp
Under 147.5
35.4%
@ 2.25-6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.61
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.22
Over/Under 152.5 · main lineActual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
52.5%
@ 2.05+2.8pp
Under 152.5
47.5%
@ 1.89-2.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Bet365
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Bet365
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Over/Under 157.5Actual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
40.2%
@ 3.05+7.9pp
Under 157.5
59.8%
@ 1.40-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.05
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
📊 3. Team Totals
Louisville total 90Actual: Louisville over 90
Over 90
47.0%
Under 90
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisville total 94 · main lineActual: Louisville over 94
Over 94
31.0%
@ 1.87-18.5pp
Under 94
69.0%
@ 1.85+18.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Louisville total 98Actual: Louisville over 98
Over 98
18.1%
Under 98
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morehead State total 53Actual: Morehead State over 53
Over 53
87.8%
Under 53
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morehead State total 57 · main linePush
Over 57
77.5%
@ 1.86+27.6pp
Under 57
22.5%
@ 1.85-27.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Morehead State total 61Actual: Morehead State under 61
Over 61
63.3%
Under 61
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Louisville -41Actual: Louisville -41
LOUI -41
no forecast
@ 2.40
MORE +41
no forecast
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
LOUI
Bet365
2.40
MORE
Bet365
1.52
Spread Louisville -38 · main lineActual: Louisville -38
LOUI -38
no forecast
@ 2.01
MORE +38
no forecast
@ 1.93
Best 5 market prices
LOUI
Bet365
2.01
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
MORE
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.82
Bet365
1.74
Spread Louisville -35Actual: Louisville -35
LOUI -35
no forecast
@ 1.79
MORE +35
no forecast
@ 2.33
Best 5 market prices
LOUI
Marathon Be
1.79
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.62
MORE
Pinnacle
2.33
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Be
1.92
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
LouisvilleMorehead State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Morehead State over 56
80.5%
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+30.2pp
Won
Morehead State over 58.5
71.8%
2.12
Betano
2.12
-
-
-
-
+29.3pp
Lost
Morehead State over 57.5
75.1%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.00
BetVictor
1.98
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
+28.0pp
Lost
Morehead State over 57
77.5%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+27.6pp
Push
Morehead State over 56.5
78.2%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
+27.3pp
Won
Morehead State over 55.5
81.0%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Won
Louisville under 96.5
76.8%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.78
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
-
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Louisville under 95.5
73.6%
1.81
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.70
-
+23.8pp
Lost
Morehead State over 54.5
83.6%
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
Louisville under 94.5
70.2%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.02
BetVictor
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
+23.6pp
Lost
Louisville under 95
72.6%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Morehead State over 53.5
86.0%
1.45
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
+23.0pp
Won
Louisville under 97.5
79.7%
1.52
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Lost
Morehead State over 52.5
88.1%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+19.0pp
Won
Morehead State over 51.5
90.0%
1.28
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.27
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Louisville under 101.5
89.1%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Lost
Louisville under 98.5
82.4%
1.44
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.38
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Louisville under 99.5
84.9%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Lost
Louisville under 100.5
87.1%
1.30
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+15.8pp
Lost
Louisville under 103.5
92.4%
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-
+15.5pp
Lost
Morehead State over 50.5
91.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Morehead State over 49.5
93.0%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Louisville under 102.5
90.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Lost
Morehead State over 48.5
94.3%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Morehead State over 47.5
95.3%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Over 144
72.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.3%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Over 145
70.7%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 143.5
73.4%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Over 143
74.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Over 142.5
75.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Over 126.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Over 131.5
91.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Over 141.5
77.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.2pp
Won
Louisville over 74.5
93.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.4pp
Won
Over 136.5
85.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Louisville over 75.5
91.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Under 176.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Louisville over 76.5
90.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Louisville over 77.5
88.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Under 171.5
86.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Louisville over 78.5
86.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Louisville over 79.5
83.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Louisville over 80.5
81.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
Under 166.5
79.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Louisville over 82.5
75.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.4pp
Won
Louisville over 81.5
78.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Louisville over 83.5
72.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Louisville -16.5
77.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.4pp
Won
Morehead State under 71.5
76.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
Morehead State under 69.5
70.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-20.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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