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Louisville vs NC State Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 10 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 118-77
56-36 62-41
Position#53
Record17-6
FormWLWWW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game70.7
Louisville 🏆
USA
vs
NC State
USA
Position#128
Record18-6
FormWWWWW
Points / game85.7
Allowed / game72.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Louisville v NC State
09 Feb 2026
LOUI118
NC S77
13 Jan 2024
LOUI83
NC S89
12 Jan 2022
LOUI63
NC S79
16 Dec 2020
LOUI v NC S
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
NC State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
L
76-80
76
80
-4
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
73-84
73
84
-11
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
75-62
75
62
+13
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
100-59
100
59
+41
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
52-83
52
83
-31
A27/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
88-74
88
74
+14
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
76-65
76
65
+11
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
88-80
88
80
+8
A07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-35
42-45
47-38
26-46
30-34
45-28
28-33
42-46
53-22
47-37
37-22
48-49
28-38
24-45
44-47
44-27
38-32
38-33
43-34
45-46
152.0Avg total
78.3Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)85.770.7156.4+15.174%
Season at home (15)90.067.8157.8+22.287%
Season away (8)77.876.0153.8+1.850%
Last 10 (10)78.373.7152.0+4.660%
Last 5 (5)77.874.6152.4+3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)62.380.0142.3-17.70%
vs Similar (6)73.780.2153.8-6.533%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)88.766.5155.2+22.295%
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
L
61-76
61
76
-15
H03/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
79-71
79
71
+8
A07/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
113-69
113
69
+44
A10/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
80-76 OT
80
76
+4
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
81-72
81
72
+9
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
88-68
88
68
+20
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
96-78
96
78
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
84-83
84
83
+1
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
82-73
82
73
+9
H07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
20-40
41-36
40-32
39-39
56-31
57-38
35-34
39-44
38-33
31-36
34-33
47-39
41-37
47-31
49-31
47-47
34-42
50-41
36-24
46-49
158.2Avg total
83.8Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)85.772.5158.1+13.275%
Season at home (15)84.869.0153.8+15.873%
Season away (9)87.178.2165.3+8.978%
Last 10 (10)83.874.4158.2+9.480%
Last 5 (5)86.274.8161.0+11.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)72.080.0152.0-8.050%
vs Similar (15)78.676.9155.5+1.753%
vs Weaker (13)88.868.6157.4+20.285%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: +4.6+4.62nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: +4.4+4.4
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +4.7+4.71st half: +4.6+4.62nd half2nd half: -0.1-0.12nd half: +4.4+4.4
LouisvilleNC State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Stanford
#103
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
53-22
53
22
+31
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
28-38
28
38
-10
A27/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
44-47
44
47
-3
H31/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H05/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A07/02
NCAA
71.7Avg total
38.2Scored
33.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.432.172.5+8.367%-
Last 30 at home (21)42.131.173.3+11.076%-
Last 30 away (9)36.434.370.8+2.144%-
Last 10 (10)38.233.571.7+4.750%-
Last 5 (5)38.034.672.6+3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)37.736.374.0+1.367%-
vs Similar (6)31.737.369.0-5.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)43.330.073.3+13.376%-
This opponent (NC State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NC StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
L
20-40
20
40
-20
H03/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A07/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
56-31
56
31
+25
A10/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H17/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A21/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
34-33
34
33
+1
A24/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H28/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A31/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A04/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
72.0Avg total
38.3Scored
33.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.033.871.9+4.270%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.931.470.3+7.682%-
Last 30 away (13)36.837.173.9-0.254%-
Last 10 (10)38.333.772.0+4.680%-
Last 5 (5)38.833.472.2+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)30.042.072.0-12.050%-
vs Similar (15)34.534.769.1-0.247%-
vs Weaker (13)43.431.675.0+11.8100%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Louisville wins
4
NC State wins
DateGameScore
13/02/25NC State v Louisville66-91
12/03/24NC State v Louisville94-85
13/01/24Louisville v NC State83-89
23/12/22NC State v Louisville76-64
13/01/22Louisville v NC State63-79
04/12/21NC State v Louisville68-73
01/02/20NC State v Louisville57-77
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26AWake Forest88-80
05/02/26HNotre Dame76-65
31/01/26HSMU Mustangs88-74
27/01/26ADuke52-83
24/01/26HVirginia Tech85-71
18/01/26APittsburgh100-59
14/01/26HVirginia70-79
10/01/26HBoston College75-62
07/01/26HDuke73-84
03/01/26AStanford76-80
NC Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26HVirginia Tech82-73
04/02/26ASMU Mustangs84-83
31/01/26AWake Forest96-78
28/01/26HSyracuse88-68
24/01/26APittsburgh81-72
21/01/26AClemson80-76 OT
17/01/26HGeorgia Tech74-78
10/01/26AFlorida State113-69
07/01/26ABoston College79-71
03/01/26HVirginia61-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW74%
HomeWLWWW87%
AwayWLWLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games23158
Win %74%87%50%
Points / game85.790.077.8
Allowed / game70.767.876.0
Point differential+15.1+22.2+1.8
Avg total156.4157.8153.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+61%73%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
NC State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW75%
HomeWLLWW73%
AwayWWWWW78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games24159
Win %75%73%78%
Points / game85.784.887.1
Allowed / game72.569.078.2
Point differential+13.2+15.8+8.9
Avg total158.1153.8165.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%60%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)0% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %8%7%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2321291%83.463.9+19.5
2 Virginia2420483%81.669.5+12.1
3 Clemson2420483%76.064.1+11.9
4 North Carolina2319483%82.670.5+12.1
5 Miami (FL)2318578%84.270.0+14.2
6 NC State2418675%85.772.5+13.2
7 Louisville2317674%85.770.7+15.1
8 California2417771%77.871.5+6.3
9 SMU Mustangs2316770%86.477.3+9.1
10 Virginia Tech2416867%79.774.4+5.3
11 Stanford2415962%76.273.1+3.1
12 Syracuse24131154%75.170.8+4.4
13 Wake Forest23111248%80.078.0+2.0
14 Florida State23111248%80.879.6+1.3
15 Notre Dame24111346%73.872.8+1.0
16 Georgia Tech24111346%74.875.5-0.7
17 Boston College2391439%67.368.6-1.3
18 Pittsburgh2491538%70.871.5-0.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville5662118
NC State364177
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