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Louisville vs SMU Mustangs Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 88-74
44-47 44-27
Position#53
Record14-6
FormWLWWL
Points / game86.0
Allowed / game70.3
vs
Position#129
Record15-5
FormLWLWW
Points / game87.2
Allowed / game77.0
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Louisville v SMU Mustangs
11 Mar 2026
LOUI62
SMU 58
31 Jan 2026
LOUI88
SMU 74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
SMU Mustangs winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee
#67
L
62-83
62
83
-21
A17/12
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
94-54
94
54
+40
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
76-80
76
80
-4
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
73-84
73
84
-11
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
75-62
75
62
+13
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
70-79
70
79
-9
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
100-59
100
59
+41
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
52-83
52
83
-31
A27/01
NCAA
1H
2H
27-34
35-49
42-20
52-34
48-34
42-36
34-35
42-45
47-38
26-46
30-34
45-28
28-33
42-46
53-22
47-37
37-22
48-49
28-38
24-45
150.2Avg total
77.7Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)86.070.3156.3+15.770%
Season at home (13)91.267.5158.8+23.785%
Season away (7)76.375.4151.7+0.943%
Last 10 (10)77.772.5150.2+5.250%
Last 5 (5)76.470.8147.2+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)62.380.0142.3-17.70%
vs Similar (6)73.780.2153.8-6.533%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)87.965.9153.8+22.095%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LSU
#230
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
97-83
97
83
+14
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
91-79
91
79
+12
A21/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
83-80
83
80
+3
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
44-47
33-42
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
39-39
58-44
25-34
45-40
35-41
40-41
39-38
38-38
37-40
31-32
45-36
46-43
46-34
37-46
162.7Avg total
84.7Scored
78.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)87.277.0164.2+10.275%
Season at home (14)91.174.8165.9+16.493%
Season away (6)78.282.2160.3-4.033%
Last 10 (10)84.778.0162.7+6.760%
Last 5 (5)78.877.8156.6+1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
vs Similar (15)82.076.5158.5+5.560%
vs Weaker (12)86.872.6159.4+14.283%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: +3.7+3.72nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +3.0+3.0
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +6.4+6.41st half: +3.7+3.72nd half2nd half: -1.2-1.22nd half: +3.0+3.0
LouisvilleSMU Mustangs
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tennessee
#67
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A17/12
NCAA
Montana
#186
W
42-20
42
20
+22
H20/12
NCAA
California
#79
W
48-34
48
34
+14
A31/12
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
34-35
34
35
-1
A03/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H07/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H10/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H14/01
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
53-22
53
22
+31
A18/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
37-22
37
22
+15
H24/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
28-38
28
38
-10
A27/01
NCAA
68.4Avg total
37.4Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.131.271.2+8.970%-
Last 30 at home (20)42.430.372.7+12.180%-
Last 30 away (10)35.432.968.3+2.550%-
Last 10 (10)37.431.068.4+6.450%-
Last 5 (5)35.229.865.0+5.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)37.736.374.0+1.367%-
vs Similar (6)31.737.369.0-5.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)42.828.771.5+14.181%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LSU
#230
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A21/01
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H24/01
NCAA
78.7Avg total
41.2Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.035.976.0+4.157%-
Last 30 at home (19)41.335.276.5+6.174%-
Last 30 away (11)37.837.275.0+0.627%-
Last 10 (10)41.237.578.7+3.750%-
Last 5 (5)40.437.878.2+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)36.544.581.0-8.00%-
vs Similar (15)39.936.576.5+3.460%-
vs Weaker (12)41.334.175.4+7.258%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Louisville wins
0
SMU Mustangs wins
DateGameScore
22/01/25SMU Mustangs v Louisville73-98
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/26ADuke52-83
24/01/26HVirginia Tech85-71
18/01/26APittsburgh100-59
14/01/26HVirginia70-79
10/01/26HBoston College75-62
07/01/26HDuke73-84
03/01/26AStanford76-80
31/12/25ACalifornia90-70
20/12/25HMontana94-54
17/12/25ATennessee62-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/26HFlorida State83-80
21/01/26AWake Forest91-79
17/01/26HVirginia68-72
15/01/26HVirginia Tech77-76
10/01/26ADuke75-82
08/01/26AClemson70-74
03/01/26HNorth Carolina97-83
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
14/12/25ALSU77-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL70%
HomeWLWLW85%
AwayLWLWL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20137
Win %70%85%43%
Points / game86.091.276.3
Allowed / game70.367.575.4
Point differential+15.7+23.7+0.9
Avg total156.3158.8151.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%69%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW75%
HomeWWWLW93%
AwayLLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20146
Win %75%93%33%
Points / game87.291.178.2
Allowed / game77.074.882.2
Point differential+10.2+16.4-4.0
Avg total164.2165.9160.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%71%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %10%7%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2120195%85.064.3+20.7
2 Clemson2218482%76.564.5+11.9
3 Virginia2218482%82.771.0+11.7
4 Miami (FL)2117481%84.769.3+15.3
5 North Carolina2016480%82.570.0+12.5
6 SMU Mustangs2015575%87.277.0+10.2
7 NC State2216673%85.972.0+14.0
8 California2115671%77.969.9+8.0
9 Louisville2014670%86.070.3+15.7
10 Virginia Tech2316770%80.074.0+6.0
11 Stanford2114767%75.772.8+2.9
12 Syracuse2112957%75.369.9+5.4
13 Notre Dame21111052%74.071.5+2.5
14 Georgia Tech21111052%74.573.1+1.3
15 Wake Forest22111150%80.077.6+2.5
16 Florida State2191243%80.479.6+0.9
17 Boston College2191243%68.168.4-0.3
18 Pittsburgh2291341%72.071.1+1.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville444488
SMU Mustangs472774
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