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Memphis vs Louisville Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 80-80
Projected total 160.5
Scheduled
Position#172
Record2-1
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game89.7
Memphis
USA
Vs
51%
49%
■ MEMP 51%■ LOUI 49%
Pythia win probability
Louisville
USA
Position#10
Record2-0
FormLWLWW
Points / game95.5
Allowed / game63.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

On 15 November 2026 the NCAA showdown between Memphis and Louisville promises a razor-thin contest, with Pythia giving Memphis a slim edge at 51% to Louisville's 49% and projecting a 80-80 tie that will push the total to 160.5 points; the spread of 7.5 points favours Memphis, yet the model estimates a 75% chance the home team will cover it, while the over on the 161.5 line has a 47% probability. Memphis, 2-1 this season, averages 83.3 points and allows 89.7, with a 1-0 home record of 89.0 to 88.0; its last five games show three wins and two losses, including a recent 89-88 home victory over VCU Rams. Louisville, unbeaten at 2-0, posts 95.5 points per game and 63.5 allowed, with a 3-2 record over the last five outings and a 107-57 home win over Morehead State; the only head-to-head encounter ended with Louisville's 99-73 win on 13 December 2025. The overtime probability sits at 5%, hinting that a tie could push the game into extra time.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Memphis win
51.1%fair 1.96
Best odds4.33
Implied22.3%
Edge+28.9pp
Louisville win
48.9%fair 2.05
Best odds1.25
Implied77.7%
Edge-28.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MemphisUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Florida
#40
L
66-87
66
87
-21
A20/02
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
67-78
67
78
-11
H22/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
82-88
82
88
-6
H27/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
68-84
68
84
-16
A01/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
89-96
89
96
-7
H06/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
A08/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
L
69-81
69
81
-12
H11/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#152
W
80-76
80
76
+4
A03/11
NCAA
VCU Rams
#155
W
89-88
89
88
+1
H07/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#16
L
81-105
81
105
-24
A11/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-47
35-40
30-46
37-32
35-40
47-48
30-44
38-40
46-51
43-45
31-40
50-41
31-39
38-42
40-39
40-37
44-48
45-40
42-47
39-58
166.5Avg total
78.7Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)83.389.7173.0-6.367%
Season at home (1)89.088.0177.0+1.0100%
Season away (2)80.590.5171.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)78.787.8166.5-9.130%
Last 5 (5)83.089.0172.0-6.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)74.579.5154.0-5.040%
vs Similar (8)79.273.2152.5+6.062%
vs Weaker (2)81.576.5158.0+5.050%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
74-77
74
77
-3
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
75-80
75
80
-5
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
77-62
77
62
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
92-89
92
89
+3
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
73-78
73
78
-5
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
69-77
69
77
-8
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#212
W
84-70
84
70
+14
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#237
W
107-57
107
57
+50
H07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
38-39
36-38
35-38
40-42
39-21
38-41
46-37
46-52
26-26
36-32
38-37
35-41
37-27
46-52
31-36
38-41
56-35
28-35
46-33
61-24
152.3Avg total
79.6Scored
72.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)95.563.5159.0+32.0100%
Season at home (2)95.563.5159.0+32.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.672.7152.3+6.960%
Last 5 (5)83.272.2155.4+11.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.583.5146.0-21.00%
vs Similar (8)75.481.4156.8-6.025%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)86.870.3157.1+16.585%
This opponent (Memphis) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158
Over 158
55.3%
@ 1.40-11.0pp
Under 158
44.7%
@ 2.75+11.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.75
Over/Under 163 · main line
Over 163
43.0%
@ 1.90-7.0pp
Under 163
57.0%
@ 2.00+7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Bet365
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 168
Over 168
31.5%
@ 2.25-9.6pp
Under 168
68.5%
@ 1.57+9.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.57

📊 3. Team Totals

Memphis total 74
Over 74
73.8%
Under 74
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Memphis total 78 · main line
Over 78
59.3%
@ 1.88+9.7pp
Under 78
40.7%
@ 1.85-9.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Memphis total 82
Over 82
43.3%
Under 82
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Louisville total 81.5
Over 81.5
44.3%
@ 1.40-22.6pp
Under 81.5
55.7%
@ 2.77+22.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Louisville total 86 · main line
Over 86
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 86
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Louisville total 89.5
Over 89.5
no forecast
@ 2.55
Under 89.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Memphis +5.5
MEMP +5.5
68.6%
@ 2.35+29.1pp
LOUI -5.5
31.4%
@ 1.55-29.1pp
Best 5 market prices
MEMP
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
LOUI
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.52
Spread Memphis +8.5 · main line
MEMP +8.5
77.7%
@ 1.97+28.8pp
LOUI -8.5
22.3%
@ 1.88-28.8pp
Best 5 market prices
MEMP
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
LOUI
Bet365
1.88
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
Betano
1.85
Spread Memphis +11.5
MEMP +11.5
84.7%
@ 1.57+24.9pp
LOUI -11.5
15.3%
@ 2.40-24.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MEMP
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
LOUI
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.22

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -8.1-8.11st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +0.6+0.6
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -8.1-8.11st half: +6.3+6.32nd half2nd half: -1.1-1.12nd half: +0.6+0.6
MemphisLouisville
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MemphisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South Florida
#40
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A20/02
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
30-46
30
46
-16
H22/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H27/02
NCAA
East Carolina
#310
L
30-44
30
44
-14
A01/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
L
46-51
46
51
-5
H06/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A08/03
NCAA
Tulane
#173
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H11/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#152
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A03/11
NCAA
VCU Rams
#155
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H07/11
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#16
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A11/11
NCAA
80.1Avg total
36.0Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77
Last 30 (30)35.136.871.9-1.737%27%
Last 30 at home (16)36.633.670.2+3.056%12%
Last 30 away (14)33.440.473.9-7.014%43%
Last 10 (10)36.044.180.1-8.110%50%
Last 5 (5)37.642.680.2-5.020%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)35.038.273.2-3.235%40%
vs Similar (8)35.132.867.9+2.438%0%
vs Weaker (2)36.538.575.0-2.050%0%
This opponent (Louisville) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#45
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A24/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A28/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H04/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A07/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
26-26
26
26
+0
H11/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A12/03
NCAA
South Florida
#40
W
37-27
37
27
+10
H19/03
NCAA
Michigan State
#29
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A21/03
NCAA
Chattanooga Mocs
#212
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H03/11
NCAA
Morehead State
#237
W
46-33
46
33
+13
H07/11
NCAA
72.1Avg total
39.2Scored
32.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 77
Last 30 (30)40.033.973.8+6.157%30%
Last 30 at home (16)41.631.272.8+10.475%38%
Last 30 away (14)38.136.975.0+1.136%21%
Last 10 (10)39.232.972.1+6.360%30%
Last 5 (5)41.633.675.2+8.080%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.538.075.5-0.550%50%
vs Similar (8)34.236.270.5-2.038%12%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)42.532.575.0+10.065%35%
This opponent (Memphis) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
MEMP win
no forecast
@ 3.25
LOUI win
no forecast
@ 1.34
1st half Spread Memphis +4.5 · main line
MEMP +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.98
LOUI -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 77 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Memphis 1st half total 37 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Louisville 1st half total 41 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.84
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half Over/Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.50
Under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Over/Under 78.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Memphis +3.5
MEMP +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
LOUI -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
1st half Spread Memphis +5.5
MEMP +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
LOUI -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Spread Memphis +2.5
MEMP +2.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
LOUI -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread Memphis +6.5
MEMP +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.67
LOUI -6.5
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.65
1st half Spread Memphis +1.5
MEMP +1.5
no forecast
@ 2.52
LOUI -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.45
1st half Spread Memphis +7.5
MEMP +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.55
LOUI -7.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 82.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.47
Under
no forecast
@ 1.47
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
MEMP
no forecast
@ 3.30
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
LOUI
no forecast
@ 1.39

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MEMP win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
LOUI win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MEMP leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LOUI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Memphis +774.1%2.09
Pinnacle
2.27
Bet365
2.10
Marathon Bet
1.91		--+32.0pp
Memphis +6.571.8%2.24
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15		--+31.6pp
Memphis over 73.574.7%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+10.1pp
Memphis over 74.571.5%1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50		---+9.9pp
Under 17072.7%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+8.5pp
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🔒 56 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Memphis wins
1
Louisville wins
DateGameScore
13/12/25Louisville v Memphis99-73
Memphislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AVanderbilt81-105
07/11/26HVCU Rams89-88
03/11/26AIowa State80-76
11/03/26HTulane69-81
08/03/26ATulane96-95 OT
06/03/26HSouth Florida89-96
01/03/26AEast Carolina68-84
27/02/26HWichita State82-88
22/02/26HUAB67-78
20/02/26ASouth Florida66-87
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HMorehead State107-57
03/11/26HChattanooga Mocs84-70
21/03/26AMichigan State69-77
19/03/26HSouth Florida83-79
12/03/26AMiami (FL)73-78
11/03/26HSMU Mustangs62-58
07/03/26AMiami (FL)92-89
04/03/26HSyracuse77-62
28/02/26AClemson75-80
24/02/26ANorth Carolina74-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Memphis
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeW100%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game83.389.080.5
Allowed / game89.788.090.5
Point differential-6.3+1.0-10.0
Avg total173.0177.0171.0
Over 16367%100%50%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Louisville
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game95.595.5-
Allowed / game63.563.5-
Point differential+32.0+32.0-
Avg total159.0159.0-
Over 16350%50%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tulsa330100%90.765.3+25.3
2 North Texas43175%84.064.5+19.5
3 Wichita State43175%88.570.0+18.5
4 East Carolina43175%75.565.8+9.8
5 Florida Atlantic43175%79.577.5+2.0
6 UTSA Roadrunners32167%76.774.0+2.7
7 Memphis32167%83.389.7-6.3
8 South Florida42250%82.874.8+8.0
9 Rice42250%81.274.0+7.2
10 Tulane42250%81.278.2+3.0
11 UAB42250%77.074.2+2.8
12 Charlotte42250%69.267.8+1.5
13 Temple31233%67.375.3-8.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisville220100%95.563.5+32.0
2 SMU Mustangs440100%92.067.5+24.5
3 Boston College330100%76.353.0+23.3
4 Notre Dame440100%87.564.2+23.2
5 Virginia550100%91.869.6+22.2
6 Virginia Tech440100%89.867.8+22.0
7 NC State440100%83.862.2+21.5
8 Pittsburgh440100%83.264.5+18.8
9 Georgia Tech440100%82.570.8+11.8
10 California54180%85.874.8+11.0
11 Duke43175%90.057.0+33.0
12 Miami (FL)43175%83.259.2+24.0
13 Wake Forest43175%76.262.8+13.5
14 North Carolina43175%83.870.8+13.0
15 Stanford43175%78.569.2+9.2
16 Clemson43175%84.276.8+7.5
17 Syracuse32167%85.363.3+22.0
18 Florida State42250%79.080.2-1.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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